The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, April 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Tina’s Exchange; 3-Insubordination; 5-Magic Miracle
The Sunday opener is a six-runner maiden special weight sprint down the hill with three main contenders. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Magic Miracle makes his first start as a gelding but remains protected in a sign of confidence. The Phil D’Amato-trained son of Twirling Candy is bred to like turf and returns to sprinting, so we’re expecting considerable improvement. Recent workouts are sharp. Insubordination, away for more than a year, returns with a series of solid works and showed considerable promise in his only prior outing. The son of Vronsky should be a strong late threat. Tina’s Exchange, beaten a nose in a maiden $50,000 claimer, gives D’Amato two bullets to fire and is bred to improve on the lawn (Exchange Rate). On figures, he’s right there with these.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Harbored Affair
Honored Affair is listed at 2/5 on the morning line and looks it in this bottom-rung maiden claiming five furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. A reasonable fourth in her only outing, she drops considerably in class, retains Tyler Baze, and has very little to beat. Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Marchtothemusic; 9-Hoppity
Hoppity has trained like a reasonable sort for Kirstin Mulhall and looks properly spotted in this maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for 3-year-olds. Drawn comfortably outside with Martin Pedroza aboard (who has been on him in the morning), the son of Grasshopper will be on or near the lead throughout if he runs to his a.m. activity. Marchtothemusic is the best of the known element, having finished an okay runner-up in a similar affair last month. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Hoppity preferred on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-El Super; 3-Taima the Hawk; 6-Fishel
The fourth race is a strong starter’s allowance race over a mile on turf that requires a bit of a spread. El Super is re-equipped with blinkers and is a first-time gelding for Mulhall while remaining protected; the son of Giant’s Causeway has the benefit of the inside draw and a prior win over this turf course. Taima the Hawk, second in his last three starts with solid figures, really won’t have to improve much to win and could be the most dangerous of the closers. Fishel, in the frame vs. similar in his last pair, retains leading rider Flavien Prat and has back speed figures that are better than par for this level. Let’s try El Super on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Psychedelicat; 4-Colonist
Colonist tipped his hand with a promising sprint debut in a hot race last month and has come back to train exceptionally well since. This stretch out to a mile should be well within his range, so let’s make the son of Pioneerof the Nile the one to beat in this maiden special weight affair for 3-year-olds. Psychedelicat is also worth some consideration; the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt returns to the main track after an even effort on grass, retains Mike Smith, and should be prominent throughout from the rail. He’s worth using on a ticket or two.
RACE 6: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Take City by Storm; 5-Blow My Mind
The sixth race is a split of the third and doesn’t have much in it. Take City by Storm has a race up north two runs back that charts well here and a sharp five furlong drill at Los Alamitos a few days ago is another positive sign. We’ll put the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding on top but also include Blow My Mind, away since December but tackling easier off the bench and making his first start since being transferred to the Brian Koriner barn. The works indicate he could be a better type this time around.
RACE 7: Post 3:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Tiz a Billy; 7-Stormy Rocit; 11-Eddie Haskell
The seventh race is another difficult slalom event; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Stormy Rocit exits a fast, highly-rated main track sprint and can be equally effective on turf. It’s been awhile since he’s actually won a race but the son of Stormy Atlantic continues sizzle in the morning at San Luis Rey Downs for Peter Miller and could be the quickest of the quick. Tiz a Billy looked good beating a softer field over this course and distance recently and with only slight improvement could make his presence felt right back. Chantel Sutherland knows him well and stays aboard. Eddie Haskell, freshened since November, hasn’t done very well over this course in the past but he otherwise has credentials to win at this level. He should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip outside.
RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Hi Happy; 5-Big John B
Big John B was rusty in his comeback when fifth in a nine furlong turf affair but he’s been extra sharp in the morning since and should return to his best form in this 12-furlong main track affair. In fact, he won this very same race last year and appears strictly the one to beat again. Hi Happy gets a local rider today (Pereira) and is proven at the trip, having won the Carlos Pellegrini (South America’s most prestigious race) back in December of 2015. There was nothing wrong at all with his fourth place effort in the Big ‘Cap last month and this clearly is an easier spot. We’ll prefer Big John B on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 9: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Mishievous Champ; 11-Spy Ring
We’ll double the finale, a strong allowance Hillside sprint for first-level 3-year-old fillies. Spy Ring makes her U.S. debut for trainer Jim Cassidy and has trained like she’ fit and ready for her first start since October. Second in a valuable listed stakes race at Newmarket in her final European appearance, she’ll race with Lasix today and appears to out class this field. Mischievous Champ looked good graduating in an off-the-turfer in mid-February and has maintained her edge in the morning for trainer Neil Drysdale. The progressive daughter of Into Mischief retains Prat and should be rolling in the final furlong.
Sunday, April 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Fiesta Rose; 6-Red Aguia; 8-Lady Master
RACE 2: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Madroos; 6-Friendswith K Mill
RACE 3: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Clouded Appeal; 7-Dietitian Michelle
RACE 4: Post: 2:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Don’t Over Look; 4-Battle Ready
RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Driven by Thunder
RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tom Liz; 3-Noble Dave
RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Completely Bonkers; 6-Adventist
RACE 8: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Break the Mold; 11-Osvaldo; 12-Slam
RACE 9: Post 4:37 ET. Grade: B
RACE 10: Post: 5:08 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bingo Bango Bongo; 4-Forall the Marbles; 9-Entwistle
RACE 11: Post: 5:39 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Chivalrous; 5-Tiger Paw; 8-Supreme Commander