Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Dec. 30, 2016

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

​Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, December 30, 2016

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Single: 5-Sooner Time

Overnight rains have come, so there’s a possibility of an off track. ​ In the opener, let’s try a projection play, Sooner Time, as she stretches out for the first time in her career and clearly looks like the controlling speed. The Vladimir Cerin barn has good stats with sprint to route plays and this daughter of Sidney’s Candy certainly has the pedigree to get the trip. There’s not a lot of value to be found – she’s 5/2 on the morning line – so this is hardly a prime play but for the purposes of our rolling exotics we’ll use her a single.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Mopotism

Mopotism is 6/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. An excellent third in the Starlet S. -G1 at Los Alamitos despite lacking a clear path in the upper stretch, the daughter of Uncle Mo returns to the maiden ranks for easy pickings and should handle this task without mishap. We’ll use her as a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Miss Bliss; 7-Kristie’s Heart

The third race kicks off the pick-6 sequence with restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares sprinting six and one-half furlongs. Let’s prefer Miss Bliss on top. First off the claim for Ed Moger, Jr., the Bay Area shipper always has been fond of the Santa Anita main track, having finished first or second in six of eight career starts on this dirt surface. In a field without a whole lot of early zip, she should secure a favorable spot from her inside post and have every chance to be on or near the lead throughout. Additionally, a healthy recent series of workouts gives indication that she’s ready for a top effort.  Kristie’s Heart won a $16,000 non-winners of two sprint in her last race (at Los Alamitos) from well off the pace and her style looks conducive to this extended sprint distance. In the money in six of 10 career starts, she should be picking up the pieces late.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Girl Downstairs; 4-Pico Chick;

The fourth race was originally scheduled as a downhill slalom affair for $32,000 claiming older fillies and mares but due to the overnight rains, it has been taken off the turf.  Be aware of the possibility of late scratches due to the surface switch.  In a race that we strongly suggest passing, Pick-6 players should use as many as they can afford to.  Among those that we suggest you include, Girl Downstairs drops back in trip, takes a significant class drop and switches to Rafael Bejarano.  She can handle the main track.  Pico Chick is a bit slower on pure numbers that many of these but she’s always been genuine and consistent and retains Flavien Prat.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 8-Fantastic Style

Fantastic Style has a history of firing fresh, and with four wins in five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, a comfortable outside draw, and a work tab that screams “fit and ready,” the Bob Baffert-trained filly looks every bit the 4/5 that she’s been listed on the morning line. She’s another no-value rolling exotic single in a race that should otherwise be left alone.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Top of the Game; 3-Prime Attraction; 5-Tribal Jewel

The sixth race is a highly competitive first-level allowance race over nine furlongs on the main track. Maybe he’s biting off a bit more than he can chew, but recent maiden winner Prime Attraction really caught our eye when graduating in just his second career start at Del Mar while earning a strong speed figure, and with another forward move today he just might able to come right back at a nice price. It’s hard to say if he’s a need the lead type – it would be nice if the others just handed him the front end – but if the Jim Cassidy-trained colt is relegated to stalking role he seems the type that would be able to handle that trip as well. At anything close to his 8-1 morning, the son of Unbridled’s Song offers some value in the straight pool. Top of the Game returns to the main track, and the last time he raced over the Santa Anita dirt he crushed a maiden field by nearly six lengths while achieving a career top speed figure. He’s another that looks attractive at a decent price – he’s 6-1 on the morning line – and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Tribal Jewel might be stretching things a bit at this mile and one-eighth trip but he’s an old pro (11 wins) fresh from a career top powerful score last month at Del Mar and always has loved this track (first or second in nine of 14 career starts). He’ll be pressing the pace every step of the way and is the logical favorite and one to beat.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Soglio; 6-Cistron; 7-Interrogator

The Eddie Logan Stakes for juveniles at a mile on turf attracted a strong field with several legitimate contenders. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Soglio broke his maiden in clever style at Del Mar with by far his best speed figure and today will have the benefit of Lasix. The Graham Motion-trained colt clearly is tackling tougher today but could easily be up to the task if given the patient ride he appears to want. With good racing luck under Dylan Van Dyke can be along in time. Cistron continues to impress in the a.m. for John Sadler and we suspect this son of The Factor will continue to improve with experience. His gate-to-wire maiden score at Del Mar earned a strong figure and if he establish the pace once again he may be tough to run down. Interrogator won a first-level allowance turf sprint at Del Mar in his first start since shipping west from Parx (where he had broken his maiden for a tag by nearly 14 lengths) and there’s no reason he won’t handle the stretch out in trip. Look for him to be move well in the final furlong.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Bubble Time

The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claimer at the abbreviated sprint distance of five and one-half furlongs. Those that have raced do not inspire, so let’s sink or swim with Bubble Time, a first-timer with a decent series of workouts that should have her fit and ready in this modest spot. Trainer Terry Knight has been known to win with first-timers (19%) and this is a very realistic spot for a filly who finally makes it to the post two days before her fifth birthday.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, December 30, 2016

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Scandalskeepcoming; 7-Like a Charm

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Little Havana; 6-Uno Dude

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Skippy Is Back

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Battle Red; 10-Union Vow

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Divine Warrior; 5-Partly Mocha

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Follow No One; 10-Bernadiva; 112-Mydrinkselection

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Starship Frontier; 7-Just Foolin Around; 8-Star Contender

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B-

Use: 4-End Play; 6-Tricked Up; 7-Global Entry

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Bronson; 9-Jersey Street

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Legendofthekitten; 9-Brianna’s Bucket

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Dec. 30, 2016

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