The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, February 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ebadan; 2-Awesome Return; 5-Buymeabond
The opener is a grass grab bag for $40,000 claiming older milers. Ebadan, away since mid-December and returning to turf, has trained well for his comeback, lands the rail, has won over this course in the past and can fire fresh. At this level the Neil Drysdale-trained gelding is a major player. Awesome Return, rested since last summer, makes his comeback for new trainer Peter Eurton, gets top rider Flavien Prat, and has shown spark in recent a.m. drills. He could be a better type this time around and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Buymeabond exits a hot race and should appreciate this drop in class. He’s back with Tyler Baze, who has won on him twice recently, and the Peter Miller-trained veteran should be rolling in the final furlong. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Ebadan on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Scathing; 2-Princess Tiznow
Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the second race, with the main contention drawn inside. Scathing was second in a similar spot last month and probably won’t have to improve much to beat this group. She should be on or near the lead throughout with the switch to Marty Garcia. Princess Tiznow crushed a maiden claiming field at Los Alamitos in December but hasn’t been seen since, and this drop in claiming value gives reason to believe she’s being dangled by connections who many not mind losing her. However, she’s a fit on speed figures, seems to be training well enough, and is worth including in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Sheswildnfree; 6-Autumn Twilight
Autumn Twilight won for this price two races back, was overmatched vs. open $25,000 claimers last month, and today’s drops for the money run while facing restricted (nw-3) company. In a race without much early speed, she figures to be on or near the lead throughout. Sheswildnfree won a $12,500 nw-2 event about a month ago, retains Prat, and will be dangerous right back in a below par field for the level. Let’s try to get by using just these two.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Summertimemischief; 3-Righteous Dixie
Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint seven furlongs in the fourth race; let’s use two and hope that’s enough. Righteous Dixie has improving speed figures, adds blinkers, and appears to have the proper style for this distance. The daughter of Trappe Shot seems the solid choice. Summertimemischief is worth using on a few tickets as well; the daughter of Into Mischief is re-equipped with blinkers, drops to her lowest level ever, and has back numbers that are good enough to win.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Radiantly makes her U.S. debut for a barn that excels with European imports and this English-bred filly gets Lasix and removes blinkers while exiting a series of much tougher group stakes races overseas. In this entry-level allowance affair, she appears to have a considerable class edge and the work tab should have her fit enough for a major effort. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Cammy’s Music; 2-Not Chopped Liver; 9-Sleepin N Cheatin
Sleepin N Cheatin, away since December but returning in a modest maiden claimer, appears capable of outrunning this group from start to finish. The son of Sea of Secrets has plenty of zip, and if he can establish control early he could get very brave late. A strong, healthy work tab indicates he’s fit and ready for a barn that has excellent stats with layoff runners. Not Chopped Liver is another dangerous class dropper, and with the addition of blinkers could easily be better than shown. Cammy’s Music has some early speed, may have needed his last, and should be in the first flight early on. He’s worth using on a ticket or two.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Pied N True
Based on the projected race flow (very fast early) of this abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares, Pied N True looks to have ideal conditions for a major effort. The lightly-raced daughter of Benchmark has the route-to-sprint angle we like in addition to returning to the main track, certainly her preferred surface. She’s a prototype late-running sprinter in a field loaded with speed, so we’re expecting her to produce the last run. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5-1.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Scandal; 7-Lori’s Attitude; 9-Shezroxiie
The nightcap is a maiden special weight turf sprint for older fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Scandal, away since the summer of 2015, has trained smartly for her comeback and should fire a big shot off the bench for trainer Richard Mandella. She looks live under Prat and will be rolling in the final furlong. Lori’s Attitude, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in a similar straight maiden affair last month, is strictly the one to beat and should be on or near the lead throughout. The concern, though, is that she doesn’t often find much under pressure in the final furlong. Shezroxiie, third in both of her career starts, has plenty of room for improvement and ran well down the hill in her debut last summer. Her work tab is brief, but if she’s fit enough she’ll be dangerous.
Friday, February 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Summer Whites; 6-Pomera
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Padilla; 5-Mach My Day; 6-He’s Cotton
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-I’m Thirsty; 6-Poopsie Doopsie
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Break Away; 7-Voila La Victoire
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Crowning Affair; 4-Pawleys Express
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Leonardo Da Vinci; 9-Zandar
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Vencedor; 7-Chatiment; 8-Crackin Jon
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Scuba Sue; 8-Crazy About Jazz
RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Southern Gem; 9-Josdesanimaux; 10-Mississippi Delta
RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Shaan; 7-Meadow Rose
RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Castor; 7-Magician’s Vanity; 12-Lillie’s Answer