Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 3, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, February 3, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Zinvor; 2-Rangi

The Friday opener is a downhill turf sprint for $25,000 claimers. Zinvor, away since October, returns with what might be considered a suspicious drop in class, but his comeback workouts have been sharp, so we’re going to assume that he’s okay, at least for today. The rail is no bargain but the Mark Glatt-trained gelding should have enough early zip to gain a favorable forward position. His best effort is good enough at this level. Rangi returns to turf and should regain his best form. The Peter Miller-trained veteran has been first or second in half of his 14 career starts over the Santa Anita lawn and will take them as far as he can on the front end. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Zinvor on top.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 3-Broadway Nika

The second race is a bottom-rung $6,250 claiming miler. Broadway Nika drops for the money run and the old-timer with 11 career victories looks well-spotted by trainer Bill Spawr to regain his winning form. Joe Talamo stays aboard, knows him well, and should have him on or near the lead throughout. However, at 8/5 on the morning, there’s not much value to had, so we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Yellow Bonnet; 6-Special Gal

Older maiden fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in the Pick-6 lid-lifter that offers two main contenders. Yellow Bonnet stretches out for the first time from the good inside post and her pedigree suggests she should be better routing that sprinting. A fit on speed figures, the daughter of Hat Trick switches to Flavien Prat and appears strictly the one to beat. Special Gal deserves consideration as well; the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has been freshened since November, seems to be training solidly for her return and appears the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but have extra tickets on top keying Yellow Bonnet.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Tahitian Lagoon; 9-Starlite Style

Tahitian Lagoon had an outing last April sprinting on turf at Golden Gate Fields and ran better than the line will show, but then missed the remainder of the year. She returns for trainer Neil Drysdale with a sneaky good work tab and looks very live in this downhill dash for older straight maiden fillies and mares. Let’s hope she breaks with her field today. Starlite Style, away since August, is another training well enough to be ready for a top try and this daughter of Unusual Heat could very well appreciate the opportunity to sprint for the first time in her nine-race career. She ran well under Bejarano last summer at Del Mar and most likely will be doing her best work in the final furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring the better price of the two – Tahitian Lagoon – on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Lambo Luxx; 7-Jet Set Man

 Jet Set Man was straight as a string to break his maiden last month but earned a nice figure in doing so and looks capable of repeating on the one-level raise. The lightly-raced son of Tribal Rule may be the best of the speed, though he seems capable of stalking and pouncing if the situation dictates. With just three career starts, the Brian Korinor-trained California-bred simply has more upside than the others. Lambo Luxx has three career wins – all three at this track – and may be the one to fear most. Freshened since October, the Jack Carava-trained son of Vronsky gets Prat and should be a factor from off the pace.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-It Tiz Well; 7-Ruby Trust

It Tiz Well just finished second in the Santa Ynez Stakes behind the brilliant Unique Bella, and while she was beaten more than seven lengths, that’s actually pretty good considering how talented her stablemate is. With no Unique Bella to worry about today, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Arch should handle this task, though the speedy Ruby Trust is sure to make her work for it. A fast maiden winner over this track in late December, ‘Trust lands the outside post and could take some catching if she can shake loose early. Stewart Elliott stays aboard for trainer Howard Zucker.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Sweet Charity

Sweet Charity tipped her hand with excellent runner-up effort in her U.S. debut last month and with better racing luck today the French-bred filly should be along in time in this second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. She’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line and we’d love to get it, but we’re anticipating half that price at post time. Let’s make the John Sadler-trained filly a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Sekondi; 11-Downside Up; 14-Quiet Dude

The finale is a maiden claiming six furlong sprint for sophomores that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just three. Downside Up may be as good as any; the son of Empire Way has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, speed figures that fit, and a modest pace scenario that should promote his chances. He’s intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line. Sekondi shows up in a seller for the first time and has numbers that are better than par for this level. If he leaves running from the rail, the Van Belvoir-trained colt should be prominent throughout. Quiet Dude must leave from the extreme outside post but has hit the board in his last pair against this level of competition and really won’t have to improve much to win. Look for this son of Spring at Last to be doing his best work in the final furlong.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, February 3, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Rare Mix; 6-Celtic Embrace; 8-Voila La Victoire

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Miss Tutu; 3-Harper’s Smile; 4-Vanishing Lady

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-American Tzar; 7-Gran Abarrio; 8-Il Nonno

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B

Single: 2-Epic Drama

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Eklipsado; 4-Horner Man

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Sistine Sista; 8-Blenheim Palace

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Ace of Hearts; 4-Bradley’s Sunshine; 5-Tizthesound

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 5-Battalion Runner

RACE 9: Post 4:33 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Kabang; 2-Carbon Data; 9-Hawk

RACE 10: Post: 5:04 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Banzai Charge; 7-More Mia; 8-Creaky Cricket

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Lookin Up; 8-Rediscover; 10-Kitten’s Dilemma

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 3, 2017

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