Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 4, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, February 4, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Reach the World; 4-Honor and Courage

The opener boils down to two main contenders and both will be heavily-backed. We’ll give a slight edge on top to Reach the World, who flashed big ability in his debut when winding up a close third in a strong race and seems certain to produce a forward move for a barn that boasts excellent stats with second-time starters. The son of Tapit raced along the deeper inside footing and became a bit mired down late; he’ll be fitter and stronger today and sharp half mile workout since that race catches the eye. Honor and Courage lost a tough photo to Sheer Flattery when stretching out for the first time last month and fully expect ‘Flattery to win Robert B. Lewis Stakes 30 minutes after this event. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained son of Unbridled’s Song has rising speed figures and likely more improvement in him, so we certainly cannot dismiss his chances. In a race that we’ll otherwise, both should be included in rolling exotic play with a few extra tickets on top allocated to Reach the World.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Sheer Flattery

The Robert B. Lewis Stakes is a Grade-3 added money event that offers 10 Kentucky Derby points. In reality, it’s nothing more than an average non-winners of two. Sheer Flattery stretched out for the first time and did so successfully with a good number over a sloppy track he clearly handled just fine when beating maidens in late December. A strong seven furlong workout last week should have him ready for a major effort right back. This five runner field doesn’t have much depth, so at 2-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-St. Joe Bay; 5-Moe Candy

The Palos Verdes Stakes came up light with just five runners, two of which stand out. The rapidly-developing Moe Candy looks ready to take on this company following a highly-rated allowance score last month; the John Sadler-trained five-year-old should draft into an ideal stalking spot and have every chance from the quarter pole home. His target, no doubt, will be the speedy St. Joe Bay, who did all the dirty work in the recent Midnight Lute S.-G2 and deserves better than just a dead-heat win. The Peter Miller-trained gelding shortens up a half-furlong today and clearly is the controlling speed, so we’re expecting him to be tough to catch. We’ll prefer Moe Candy on top but it’s a close call, so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Domestic Vintage; 9-Amen Sista

Maiden sophomore fillies meet over nine furlongs in the fourth in what looks to be a better than par race for the level. Domestic Vintage should love the trip and seems set to produce a significant forward move. The Neil Drysdale-trained daughter of Melbourne Cup winner Americain didn’t get the clearest of runs when a willing third in a similar spot at Del Mar in early December, but she’s trained well since and should very much appreciate today’s extra distance. She switches to Rafael Bejarano, will likely enjoy a good ground-saving trip, and should be capable of producing the last run. Amen Sista, a second-time starter from the Phil D’Amato stable, retains Flavien Prat, adds blinkers, and is another that should improve considerably with a race under her belt. The daughter of Street Cry had a bit of a tough trip and did well to be beaten only five lengths when reasonably well-backed (7-1); today we’ll find out what she’s made of. We’ll give Domestic Vintage the edge top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Haynzee Panky; 6-Tattooed Kitty

The fifth race is a weak maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. Haynzee Panky, a route-to-sprint play, adds blinkers for trainer Peter Eurton, continues to flash good zip in morning workouts, and probably hasn’t yet shown her best stuff. If she breaks running from the rail, the daughter of Haynesfield should have every chance to press the pace, if not make the lead, and against this group that’s all it may take. Tattooed Kitty was claimed out of her debut for $62,500 and today shows up off a six month layoff for $30,000, not exactly a ringing endorsement. Her only outing wasn’t too bad – at least in the context of what’s she’s facing today – so let’s make the Tim Yakteen-trained filly a major contender by default. We’ll try to get by using just these today but not without any degree of confidence. Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 8-Fabozzi; 9-Curlin Rules; 12-Gangster

Gangster can’t possibly encounter a wider trip than he was victimized by vs. similar last time out, can he? We’ll, from this poor post maybe he can. However, if the Doug O’Neill-trained horse can somehow negotiation a good trip he certainly can win based on his excellent performance over this course and distance last month, when he was forced to lose considerable ground every step of the way yet still managed to loom a bold threat in mid-stretch before eventually paying the price and winding up fourth, beaten just two lengths. Bejarano takes over and will try to find a spot to drop in before the field hits the clubhouse turn. Curlin Rules, a strong second in the same race Gangster exits, ran very well while on the lead until the final jump, and seems certain to employ similar tactics again. He’ll wear blinkers for the just the second time in his career; his previous outing with the hood was poor but it came in a stakes race on the main track, so we won’t hold that against him. Fabozzi is a progressive gelding from the Mark Glatt barn and should be a factor on the raise following a nice first-level allowance win in early December at Del Mar. The workouts in the interim have been good and on pure numbers he can be competitive with this group with only slight improvement. A prior win over this turf course and the switch to Prat are other positive factors to consider.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Calm the Sea; 5-Plane Lucky; 6-Avicii

The seventh race is a stronger-than-average entry-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. Calm the Sea was noticeably short in her recent comeback but won’t have that excuse today. The Hollendorfer-trained mare wasn’t knocked about when finishing a distant third but has trained well since and should be fitter and tougher today. The speed figure that she earned in her debut win over this main track last year is good enough to beat this field; today we’ll find out if she still has that kind of ability. Plane Lucky likely will appreciate a fast track today after being worn down late over sloppy going against a similar field last month. She continues to impress in the morning, retains Bejarano, and should be part of the pace throughout. Avicii has been claimed in her last three starts, most recently by red-hot trainer Miller, and while she’s slower on numbers than some of the other main contenders she has to be respected due to her excellent, consistent recent form. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Calm the Sea on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Hoppertunity; 5-Mor Spirit; 7-Accelerate

So whose turn is it today? The older handicap division – minus Arrogate and the recently retired California Chrome, has had little to consistency or dependability as evidenced by the fact that not one entrant in today’s San Antonio – the prep for the Santa Anita Handicap – is coming off a win. In fact, none won their race before last, either. Hoppertunity is good enough to beat a field like this on his best day and his Bob Baffert-trained stablemate, Mor Spirit, following a tune up in the opening day Malibu Stakes, should be primed for a major effort, so we’ll use both. Toss in the improving Accelerate, an excellent second in the San Pasqual S.-G2 over a wet-fast track on New Year’s Day and we have at least three contenders that figure to run well, if not win. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics, but if you prefer any of the other contenders we certainly won’t talk you out of it.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Texas Ryano

Texas Ryano never looked better than he did winning the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar in December and maybe now as a 6-year-old he’s ready to take his place among the best West Coast turf performers. He might be a tad more effective at a mile and one-half but both of his races over 10 furlongs were good, so in his present form and over a turf course we know he likes the Carla Gaines-trained veteran seems prime to string to winning performances together. There are several others in here that are capable of winning a race like this, and rolling exotics might feel the need to spread the race, but we’ll take a stand with Texas Ryano and leave it at that.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, February 4, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Contradict; 2-Cavity; 5-Global Entry

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Looking At Thelake; 8-Antoaneta; 11-Furiosa

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Prince Tito; 1-Makarios

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 4-Made You Look

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Three Rules; 4-Favorable Outcome

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Pretty City Dancer; 6-Ms Locust Point

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Rock Eagle; 2-Mobridge; 10-I. C. Lightning

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  C+

Use: 1-Chasing the Dream; 4-Campaigner’s Gold; 6-Rodeo Romance

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Nonna Bella; 6-Fear No Evil; 7-No Need to Appeal

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Quality Rocks; 2-Chiringuita; 9-Excilly

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:04 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Compelled; 7-Rymska

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:34 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Gunnevera; 3-Classic Empire

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 4, 2017

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