Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 12, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, January 12, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Moments Notiz; 2-Success Rate

As this is penned, the track condition is uncertain, though heavy overnight rains insure some level of a wet surface. The opener, a $16,000 claiming sprint, drew just five runners. Success Rate is an old pro in the Jack Carava barn with good prior form at Santa Anita and recent speed figures that make him the one to beat. The veteran gelding remains above his claim level – a positive sign – and in a race lacking in early zip could inherit the role as the controlling speed. Moments Notiz, third in his last pair, drops a notch for the high percentage Bill Spawr stable and should be doing his best work from off the pace. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Elegant Street; 5-Above Board

The second race, as starter’s allowance main track mile event, is another five runner affair with little depth. Elegant Street broke his maiden in desperate fashion at Los Alamitos vs. straight maidens last month but ran for a tag earlier in his career so he’s eligible to this condition. He might be a need-the-lead type and there’s other speed in here, so the same kind of trip that resulted in his win might not materialize today. We’ll include the Bobby Grayson-trained horse in our rolling exotics but there’s certainly no value to be found at 7/5 on the morning line. Above Board stretches out again and might be the most dangerous of the closers. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get involved.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Celebrated Talent; 3-Out of Patience

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a $20,000 seven furlong sprint. Celebrated Talent is re-equipped with blinkers and takes a significant class drop in just his second start since being haltered by Ron Ellis for $40,000 two runs back. The Bernardini gelding switches to Rafael Bejarano, exits a hot race, and looks capable of producing the last run. A bullet half mile workout at San Luis Rey Downs since raced also is worth noting. Out of Patience loves this main track – he’s won four of 10 lifetime at Santa Anita – and this consistent gelding in the Spawr barn has the perfect style for this extended sprint trip. He’s in good form and is the one to fear most.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Pontificator; 3-Sheza Chattykat

The fourth race is another five runner affair, a maiden claiming $75,000 sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Pontificator was worn down late when second as the favorite in her debut at Del Mar in November vs. similar rivals; she’s worked well since and really won’t have to improve much to handle this group unless one of the first-timers pop up. Sheza Chattykat is one of two Richard Baltas-trained newcomers in the field; the daughter of Trappe Shot boasts a bullet half mile workout in 47 seconds (fastest of 109 for the distance) so she figures to display plenty of zip. Let’s try to get by using just these two while preferring the proven element, Pontificator, slightly on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-La Petite Fleur; Warren’s Honey Bee

Bottom-rung older maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the fifth race. La Petite Fleur has displayed some zip in morning trials for her Los Alamitos-based connections and is a contender by default in a very weak race. Warren’s Honey Bee is a 15-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she’s hit the board in each of her last four starts and is clearly the best of the known element. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Bronzino; 6-Wrightwood; 8-Gone With It

The sixth race is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 middle distance affair that seems fairly wide open and requiring a spread. Use as many as you can afford to. Bronzino has the blinkers off angle that we like and against this group might get brave. Wrightwood is just one-for-21 lifetime but has been chasing much tougher of late and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis. While he’s certainly not one to trust, the son of Elusive Quality has back numbers that can win, so we’ll include him. Gone With It is another big class dropper that may have found his friends today. He has a prior win over the Santa Anita main track and should be on or near the lead throughout. Tread lightly here.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: none

Pass/No Play

 This race was originally scheduled for turf but has been moved to the main track. There are certain to be late scratches, so we’ll pass the race and suggest rolling exotic players use as many as they can afford to.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 3-Tiz No Bluff

 Tiz No Bluff makes his first start since July and shows up as a first-time gelding while also dropping into a claimer for the first time for a stable that has superior stats with layoff runners and class droppers. A bullet seven furlong workout gives indication that the son of Tiznow is a fit and ready, and with back numbers that are stronger than par, the lightly-raced five-year-old seems perfectly spotted for a win. In a modest field for the level, he’s offering plenty of value at 6-1 on the morning line both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. And as a final bonus, the pedigree okay’s any type of off track.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, January 12, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Extreme Justice; 6-Market Strength; 7-Regal Kitten

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Curlin’s Image; 7-Majestic Maiara

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Lillie’s Answer; 9-Kenitra

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Charlie the Greek; 5-Epic Drama

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Collateral Kitten; 4-Consumerconfidence

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Fire Mission; 8-Sing Praises; 9-The Son Wind

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-To Your Health; 5-Hines; 9-Ready Strikes

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 5-Morea; 9-Annatheia

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Forced Motion

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Forall the Marbles; 6-Ginger Goose; 10-Stdar Contender

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 12, 2017

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