Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 13, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, January 13, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Tchula Sunset

As this is written, the condition of the main track is uncertain, though it’s very likely to be considerably wet. Tchula Sunset drops for the money run and appears to have found his friends in this $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. The Ed Moger-trained colt chased a much tougher band at Los Alamitos last month and is realistically spotted today; in a five-runner field he should have no excuses. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Blanket of Ice; 5-Yoked

The second race is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer at a flat mile. Blanket of Ice beats these with a repeat of his race before last; the Mark Glatt-trained gelding should be prominent throughout from his rail post and remains above his claim level in a sign of confidence. Yoked has rising numbers but has yet to his the board in six starts over the Santa Anita main track. He may be a better type now so we’ll toss him as a saver or a back-up.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Royal Seeker; 5-Loud Stalker

Maiden $50,000 claimers meet over a mile in the third race, which kicks of the Pick-6. Royal Seeker for the first time surfaces for a tag and this drop in class should do him a world of good. The Jeff Metz-trained colt has a good stalking style and numbers that fit, though his most recent start wasn’t very encouraging. We’ll use him, but prefer Loud Stalker on top. He has the “blinkers off” angle that always catches our eye and the lightly-raced son of Kafwain is stretching out for the first time to a distance he’s bred to handle. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the lead every step of the way.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tangled Up in Ju; 2-Basie Boots

The fourth race should boil down to Tangled Up in Ju and Basie Boots and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Tangled Up in Ju likes this track and despite the rail should be prominent throughout and have every chance in a below par field for the level. She’s reunited with Edwin Maldonado, who won on her (by more than nine lengths) over this main track last summer. Basie Boots returns to her claim level and seems better than her last pair shows; the Gary Sherlock-trained filly, is a fit on figures, retains Tyler Baze, and has been first or second in four of seven career starts over this main track. We’ll give Tangled Up in Ju a very slight edge on top but use them equally in our rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-That’s a Lady; 6-Perfect Pic

The fifth race is a first-level allowance affair over a distance of ground for fillies and mares. That’s a Lady earned a career top speed figure when third in a photo in a similar affair over this track during the fall meeting, and has trained like she’s fit and ready in her first start since for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. She’s a strong contender, for sure, but Perfect Pic, exiting the Grade-1 La Brea Stakes and stretching out for the first time, looks equally intriguing. The daughter of Candy Ride certainly should be able two turns and in fact may find herself as the controlling speed. Both should be used in rolling exotic play but we’ll have an extra ticket or two with Perfect Pic on top.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Aquamarine

Aquamarine has been very impressive in a.m. drills for Bob Baffert and looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking. The son of Gemologist appears to be blessed with the kind of speed that should have him right at home at this abbreviated sprint trip. He’s listed as the 9/5 second choice in the morning line, though we wouldn’t be surprised if he went off favored. We’ll make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 5-Miss Sunset

The seventh race, originally scheduled for the downhill turf course, has been switched to the main track. There seems a high likelihood of at least a few (yet to be announced) scratches. Miss Sunset returns for trainer Jeff Bonde with a string of solid works to indicate that she has retained the speed she displayed when winning twice in two starts last summer, including the Generous Portion Stakes. Small ticket players may consider using her as a single, as the daughter of Into Mischief looks on paper to be the controlling speed.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 3-Pop Pop’s Pizza; Via Fermato; 8-Pashito

The finale is a fairly contentious bottom-rung maiden claimer for older runners. Pop Pop’s Pizza has enough speed to worry this group at this shortened sprint trip and seems as good as any. Via Fermato, away since July but training well enough to be considered a fit at this level, should be doing his best work from off the pace. Pashito has worked a bit better than his moderate final clockings would indicate and represents stranger danger. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics with Pop Pop’s Pizza receiving a very slight edge on top.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, January 13, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Flash Jak; 6-Charming Fantasy

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Simon the Cyrenian; 4-Thunder Afleet; 7-Menehune

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Shifty Kitten; 6-Voila La Victoire; 8-Cajun Queen

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Homegrown Honey; 7-Cindy’s Candy; 8-Wild Dalton

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 7-My Good Venezuela; 8-Warranty

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Liana Star; 7-Legendofthekitten; 10-Break Away

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Dreaming of Neno

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  C+

Use: 5-Conquest Lucknlove; 8-City Section; 10-Leroids Mommie

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Neoclassic; 5-Hidden Vow; 9-Here’s to Mike

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Lookin Up; 10-Tap the Pistol; 11-Little Sky

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 13, 2017

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