Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 15, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, January 15, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pontificator; 3-Sheza Chattykat

The Sunday opener is a six furlong sprint for expensive maiden claiming sophomore fillies. Pontificator has the benefit of a prior run, having finished a solid second in a similar event at Del Mar in November and has every right to step forward with an improved effort today. The one she has to fear most is the newcomer Sheza Chattykat, a daughter of Trappe Shot from the Richard Baltas barn with a recent bullet half mile workout to have right on edge. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Pontificator.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Princess Bella; 6-Pomp and Party

The second race is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint featuring 3-year-old fillies with two main contenders. Pomp and Party has trained well enough to win a race like this at first asking, and the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Parading should have every chance from her cozy outside draw. We’ll put her on top. Princess Bella, a distant third in a slightly tougher spot in her debut last month at Los Alamitos, likely has improvement in her and should be included as well in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Tiz No Bluff; 5-Chiksika

Tiz No Bluff returns as a first-time gelding for the Ron Ellis stable (good stats with comebackers) and also sports that always-dangerous class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. A strong recent seven furlong work should have him spot on, and with back numbers that would beat this field the son of Tiznow looks ready to graduate. There’s some value here at 9/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Chiksika is worth saving on a ticket or two on your rolling exotics; the Kathy Walsh-trained gelding adds blinkers for the first time and earned a competitive speed figure when chasing tougher at Los Alamitos last time out.

RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

This race has been switched to the main track. Had the race remained on turf, our strong top selection would have been Klondike Creek, but he has now been scratched. Therefore, this race becomes a pass/no play. Rolling exotic players should spread as deeply as they can afford to.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Conquest So True; 3-Autumn Twilight; 5-Kyankes

The fifth race is a difficult restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming miler for older fillies and mares and requires a spread. We’ll try to get by using three but not with a great deal of confidence. Conquest So True is winless in nine career starts over the Santa Anita main track but she exits much tougher races and may have found her friends today. She’s reunited with Martin Pedroza, who won on her two races back, and should have her on or near the lead throughout. Autumn Twilight is another class dropper that likely will improve in this league; the Steve Miyadi-trained mare does her best running from off the pace and with some help up front should be heard from in the final furlong. Kyankes stretches out again, has always been fond of this main track and appears likely to draft into a soft, pace-stalking position. It’s been awhile since she’s visited the winner’s circle but her numbers make her solid fit.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Oh Marvelous Me; 2-Gone With It; 3-Wrightwood

The sixth race is another messy affair, we’ll use three in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. Gone With It seems as good as any; the Gone Astray gelding takes a substantial drop in class in his first start since mid-November and the work tab indicates he’s doing well enough to expect a good effort. He’s 1-for-17 lifetime but at least that one win came over this main track. Oh Marvelous Me sports the always-dangerous blinkers-off angle and is another class dropper likely to be improve in this league. Wrightwood is more than good enough to win on his best day, but his recent form leaves plenty to be desired. He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis and at this level may deserve one more look.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Honor Maker; 7-Perfect Cocktail

Honor Maker was fairly impressive breaking her maiden at Los Alamitos in her first start for a tag and that race qualifies her for this starter’s allowance event. Drawn comfortably inside, she should enjoy a similar pace-prompting/setting trip and with another forward move will be tough to deny. Perfect Cocktail also is worth including; she stretches out again for the Desormeaux brothers and a repeat of her race before charts extremely well against this group.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Foolish to Deceive

 The featured eighth race is a starter’s allowance event over a mile on the main track and appears to be a perfect spot for Foolish to Deceive. The progressive gelding may be a tad suspect at this trip but should be the controlling speed and against a below average field for the level could easily get brave and keep on going. The son of Congrats is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and seems just about right. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Basinca; 9-Annie’s Candy

 The finale is a $50,000 claiming sprint restricted to 4-year-olds. Annie’s Candy is winless in five career starts over the Santa Anita main track but he’s generally run decently and may be most comfortable when held up early and allowed to run late. That’s the kind of ride he figures to receive with the switch to Prat, so we’re expecting this gelded son of Twirling Candy to be along in time. Basinca returned to winning form when dropped into a $25,000 claimer on New Year’s Day and is doubled in price today in a sign of confidence by new trainer Robertino Diodoro (superior stats with first-off-the-claim plays). First or second in five of seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Proud Citizen is another who prefers to do his best work in the final furlong. Let’s give the edge on top to Annie’s Candy but use both rolling exotic play.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Sunday, January 15, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Flemish Cap; 2-Barry Karafin Bets

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Over Limit; 3-Tranquillo

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 1-Ravelo’s Boy

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Cavity; 9-Mr. Magic

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Bahama Kitten; 2-Pebble Road; 3-Chania

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Vaunting; 3-Llanita; 6-Sawyer

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 3-Go Beeja; 4-King Maura; 7-Patch

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Performance Bonus

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Happy Wanderer; 8-Sharm El Sheikh

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Mr. Brix; 7-Commander Wise; 11-Break the Mold

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 15, 2017

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