Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Monday, January 16, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Golden Light; 9-Mai Tai

The Monday opener finds first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares meeting over a mile on turf. Golden Light, freshened since the fall meeting, shows a brief work tab for her return but if she’s fit enough off the bench the Jim Cassidy-trained mare looks capable of producing the last run. She’s run well over this course in the past and probably has further improvement in her. A repeat of her last race should be good enough. Mai Tai has been stuck on seconds lately and really doesn’t have much of a late punch, but she’s a consistent sort that can handle any trip and should at least get a piece of it again today. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Golden Light.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Lil Miss Sapphire; 3-Cioppino Pasadino

This $25,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies should boil down to Lil Miss Sapphire and Cioppino Pasadino, and both should be included in your rolling exotics. Lil Miss Sapphire has plenty of zip and should stick much better in this softer spot; the Jeff Mullins-trained daughter of Gemologist broke her maiden for fun over this track during the fall meeting while earning a good figure and a repeat of that race today makes her the one to beat. Cioppino Pasadino has won two of three starts over the Santa Anita main surface, including a game score here opening day. She’s a fit on figures and should draft into a good pace-stalking position and have every chance.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  4-Out of Patience; 7-Celebrated Talent

​We’ll double the third race, an extended sprint for $20,000 claimers. Celebrated Talent has much in his favor; the veteran gelding drops for the money run, gets a comfortable outside post and switches to Rafael Bejarano. If he turns in anywhere close to his best race, he’ll handle this task. Out of Patience is a genuine and consistent veteran in the Bill Spawr barn; he’s won four of 10 over the Santa Anita main track and has never been off the board in five starts at seven furlongs. He’s the one to fear most.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Dalsaros

Dalsaros is a first-timer trained by Carla Gaines, and although this barn doesn’t often win with debut runners, this daughter of Unbridled’s Song appears to have enough ability to be a very live at first asking. Two recent solid six furlong gate drills catch the eye, and with Flavien Prat taking the call the four-year-old filly should be plenty fit for a major effort. In what appears to be a slightly below average field, we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Reach the World; 2-Dabster; 4-Surfside Sunset

This is a strong race for maiden special weight sophomores and it should take a pretty nice colt to win it. Dabster finished first in his debut but was disqualified for drifting out in the final furlong; he was part of a wicked early pace in that event and showed moxie to stick around and hold sway to the wire. He’s bred for today’s two-turn trip and should produce a significant forward move, as most young horses in the Bob Baffert barn do. Baffert’s other entrant is the very promising Reach the World, who has done very good work in the morning and trains like a true route-type. It’s logical to assume that Dabster has the edge for having a prior outing, but this Tapit colt deserves strong consideration as well. Surfside Sunset is another we’ll toss in; he was a closing fourth in a hot sprint last month at Del Mar and seems highly likely to improve with experience and distance for the always-potent Bob Hess/Kent Desormeaux team.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Warren’s Honey Bee; 4-Summertimesmischief

Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares occupy the sixth race, a six furlong sprint. Warren’s Honey Bee is a 15-race maiden who came so close to graduating last time out when nosed out in a similar spot at Los Alamitos; against this group not much more will be needed. Summertimemischief drops to her lowest level ever while being re-equipped with blinkers; she’s a fit on speed figures and switches to Stewart Elliott. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge on top to Summertimemischief.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Kenriya; 7-Into the Mystic

The Megahertz Stakes, a grade three one mile turf event for fillies and mares, looks fairly wide open; we’ll use two and hope that’s sufficient. Into the Mystic seems better than her last pair gives her credit for and may be capable of producing the last run with her best effort. Pratt stays aboard and knows her well. Fresh-off-the-plane Kenriya represents stranger danger; she was group-stakes placed in France as a 3-year-old, gets Lasix, and has Racing Post ratings that make her a solid fit at this level on this circuit. Overseas, she was most effective when allowed to settle and then produce a late kick.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Aura Rose; 7-Sly Humor

Maiden claiming sophomore fillies compete at the abbreviated sprint distance of five and one-half furlongs in the eighth race. Sly Humor just finished second in a lesser spot but earned a speed figure (albeit over a sloppy surface) that can beat this supposedly tougher field, so we’ll put her on top. The Simon Callaghan-trained filly has room for further improvement and should take some catching at this distance. Aura Rose is slower on numbers than Sly Humor but takes a class drop, and coupled with the switch to Bejarano in her first outing since November the Eddie Truman-trained daughter of Uncle Mo looks like a major player. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Private Terrace; 3-Sooner Time; 6-Papaslilprincess

The ninth race is a wide-open bottom rung claiming main track miler for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Papaslilprincess beat a similar group at Los Alamitos about a month ago and looks dangerous right back. She does her best work from off the pace and there should be enough pace in here to compliment her style. Private Terrace, third in her last pair, will likely enjoy a good ground-saving trip and have every chance, though she’s winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita main track. Sooner Time has been racing in good form of late; she lost a toughie in a similar spot in late December over a wet-fast track and if she can repeat that performance she’ll be right there. However, like Private Terrance, she’s zero-for-seven over the Santa Anita main dirt oval.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Kimbear; 8-Avalanche; 13-Cut

The finale is a downhill turf sprint for sophomores and it’s a typical grass grab bag. Avalanche is back sprinting where he may be most effective; the son of Mizzen Mast ran very well under these conditions in his debut but flattened out went sent two-turns in his next start. Freshened since November and training well for John Sadler, he’s very likely to snap back today. Kimbear closed with interest to be a strong second in a fast Los Alamitos maiden sprint and earned a speed figure that makes him the one to beat. A sharp half mile work out in 46 4/5 seconds (second fastest of 61 for the distance) since that race appears he’s headed in the right direction. Cut shortens to what should be a more favorable trip, continues to work well, and figures right there if he’s able to drawn into the field from the also-eligible list.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Monday, January 16, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Flibbertigibbet; 9-Truge

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Vow Me Over; 5-Indian Starlight

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Tight Rock

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Single: 10-Sweet Exchange

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Cousin Tino; 7-Stagecoach Stop

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-She Read My Texts; 3-Bingo Kitten; 7-Recalibrating

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Call Her Karma; 9-Wildcat Gaze; 11-Solfatara

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B-

Use: 7-Fuerza; 11-Above the Mark

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Dreamofjean E.

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Just Foolin Around; 8-Fair Prospect

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Dungeness; 7-Baby Antonella; 9-Here Comes Rosie

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 16, 2017

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