Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 26, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, January 26, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Sassy Rose; 3-Bella Be Quick

The Thursday opener matches maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies at the abbreviated sprint distance of five and one-half furlongs. Sassy Rose is a first-off-the-claim for Art Sherman (good stats with this angle) and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis. Though she was a tad disappointing when a distant third last time out, a sloppy racetrack gives her an excuse and a repeat of her race before last looks good enough to beat this group. Bella Be Quick has an improving pattern, though she’s not particularly fast on speed figures. A beaten choice in both of her career starts, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly looks very much like the controlling speed and we’re expecting her to stick better over a fast surface. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Sassy Rose.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Princess Julia; 5-Paradise Woods

Princess Julia is the best of the known element, having finished a strong second on opening day in a better than par maiden special weight sprint while four clear of the others. She’s trained well since for Jerry Hollendorfer and probably won’t have to improve much to win. The first-timer Paradise Woods has done everything right in the morning for Richard Mandella and looks extremely live. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Princess Julia.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Mon Mousse; 6-Jonny’s Choice

Six first condition allowance main track milers meet in the third race. Jonny’s Choice, so popular at the claim box lately and now in the Gary Stute barn, knows how to win races, though his 1-for-11 lifetime record over the Santa Anita main track hardly inspires confidence. The veteran gelding should be prominent throughout under hustling rider Marty Garcia. Mon Mousse, a Bay Area shipper with tons of early speed, is the likely pacesetter from his rail post position. From the high percentage Jonathan Wong barn, the veteran gelding has done most of his racing on either dirt or all-weather but he can handle dirt as well. In his current form, we’ll give him the edge on top though both should be included in rolling exotic play.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Rally Back; 5-Fallout; 6-Venezuelan Gold

This starter’s allowance sprint for sophomore fillies looks like a stronger than average race for the level, with at least three in the field appearing capable of winning. Venezuelan Gold was much the best in her debut in Florida in November and soon after purchased privately by clients of high percentage trainer Peter Miller. She’s trained very well for her new connections since arriving in California, lands the cozy outside post, and is not doubt much better than her moderate speed figure gives her credit for. Rally Back has numbers that fit and should be in the fray throughout, while Fallout, second in the same race Rally Back just finished third in, is another lightly-raced filly with room for improvement. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Venezuelan Gold on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Geologist; 5-Super Touch

The fifth race is a weak maiden $40,000 claimer with seven runners; we’ve got the main contention down the just two. Super Touch, freshened since early December, exits a hot race and seems the one to beat by default. However, we’ve seen better 6/5 shots. He may have to deal with the Woodbine shipper, Geologist, who has trained nicely for his local debut and has speed figures (albeit in route and turf races) that should make him dangerous at this level.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Street Goddess; 8-Fab Four Ever

Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the sixth race. Street Goddess just won at this level in convincing fashion at Los Alamitos and was claimed by Wong, who has powerful stats with this angle. He wheels her back at the same level and secures Rafael Bejarano, so she’s the likely choice and one to beat. Fab Four Ever has been away for more than a returns cheap, not exactly the healthiest of patterns. If she has one good one left she’ll be a late threat against this group. We’ll try to get by using just these two but this is not a race we’re planning on getting too involved with.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Lemon Orchid; 4-Time for Ebby; 6-Ready to Hula Lula

The featured seventh race is a state-bred first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. Time for Ebby looked good beating a starter’s allowance field in the mud two weeks ago and she can handle fast ground equally as well. The Gary Sherlock-trained filly is likely to settle in mid-pack and then produce a good late kick. Lemon Orchid broke her maiden at Los Alamitos in December in decent fashion and with another bit of improvement should be a fit on the raise. Marty Garcia will have her in the first flight throughout. Ready to Hula Lula has plenty of zip and will take them as far as he can, though six furlongs might be stretching her limit. She’s worth tossing in as a saver.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Where Y’at Joe; 6-Last One Standing; 7-Wildfire Kid

The finale is a fairly competitive $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Wildfire Kid may not have cared for the wet-fast track when fading readily vs. $32,000 sellers on New Year’s Day but this field is well within his capabilities and over fast ground the Miller-trained gelding will be tough to beat with anything close to his best effort. Where Y’at Joe, first off the claim for Dean Pederson, finished behind ‘Kid when they met at Los Alamitos in December. Freshened since then and adding blinkers, the son of Good and Tough won’t have to improve much to pose a serious threat. Last One Standing returns to his winning level and figures to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s hit the board in all five of his starts over the Santa Anita main track but has yet to win.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, January 26, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: X

Single: 5-Miss Otis

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Trabacious; 7-Liberty Road

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Awee’s Dude; 3-Colonel Swinson

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Don’t Come Knockin; 4-Jersey Street; 5-Mai Tye One On

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Our Independence

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Roraima; 10-Leanne N Susan; 12-Miss Steffi

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Lucky Bella; 5-Battle Tale

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B-

Use: 5-Peru; 9-Somethingelse; 10-Dad’s Princess

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-He’s Got Talent; 2-Yellow Chips

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Little Irishdancer; 5-Vasilika

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Mojo Rising; 7-Bourbon City; 8-Rediscover

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 26, 2017

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