Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 28, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 28, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 11:45 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-And Then Some; 4-True Ranger

Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimers sprint six furlongs in the opener, and as the conditions of the race dictate, there’s not much in it. And Then Some ran reasonably well despite a wide trip in a similar affair earlier this month and according to his speed figures really won’t have to improve much to win. His only prior victory came over this track and distance. True Ranger, first off the claim for Ryan Hanson, wound up fifth in the same race that And Then Some just finished fourth in, and with just eight prior starts probably has considerable room for improvement. Let’s prefer And Then Some on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

​​RACE 2: Post 12:15 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Enola Gray

Enola Gray lays over the field in the second race, the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint down the hill, but at 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she offers no value other than as a rolling exotic single. The Phil D’Amato-trained filly won her only prior outing over this course and distance in game style, and the projected pace of this race looks quite comfortable for the speedy daughter of Grenzen.

RACE 3: Post 12:46 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-All of a Sudden; 4-Table for Three

The third race is a maiden special weight sprint for sophomore state-bred fillies with two main players. All of a Sudden finished an excellent third in her debut at 38-1, not unexpectedly outrunning her expectations as first-timers from the Steve Miyadi barn often do. That race came over a sloppy track; if she can perform as well on a fast surface she should be hard to beat in what is a below average affair for the level. Table for Three was a decent runner-up in a recent two-turn grass event that earned a strong rating; she backs up in trip and returns to the main track today for a barn that has superior stats with the route-to-sprint angle. With another forward move, she’s right there with these. We’ll slightly prefer All of a Sudden on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:17 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Gypsy Ju Ju; 6-Pequena Maty

The fourth race brings together nine maiden-claiming 3-year-olds fillies at five and one-half furlongs. Pequena Maty tipped her hand in her debut when finishing a strong runner-up at 32-1 in a softer field up north, and this raise in class from $25,000 to $50,000 and the upgrade in circuit can be viewed as a sign of confidence from a low profile outfit. Gypsy Ju Ju was overmatched in straight maiden company last time out but is realistically spotted today and should be on or near the lead from the get-go. We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that we’ll probably not get too involved in.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:50 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 8-My Pi Romancer; 9-Sircat Sally

The California Oaks for 3-year-old fillies over a mile on turf ushers in the Pick-6. Sircat Sally is undefeated in two starts, winning off by herself in both outings, one sprinting, one routing. Today she has a new challenge – turf – but we’re not expecting the switch in surface to be an issue. The daughter of Surf Cat is very fast on numbers, continues to impress in the morning, and should be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll also find room on our ticket for My Pi Romancer, a runaway maiden winner over this course and distance earlier this month with by far a career top number. The daughter of Unusual Heat won like a real prospect and with continued improvement today could give the favorite a run for her money.

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:21 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Jimmy Bouncer; 6-Acceptance

The sixth race is the Cal Cup Sprint at six furlongs on the main track. The morning line favorite is Solid Wager (9/5) but we’ll take a stand against him under the assumption that this trip is a bit too sharp for the devoted late-running sprinter and that, coupled with the rail, might be too much for him to overcome. Instead, we’ll try Acceptance as our top pick. Returning to a main track he clearly prefers, the son of Vronsky looks like the most dependable of the speed types, and after a month of freshening should be primed for a major effort. Jimmy the Bouncer didn’t handle the sloppy surface when fourth in the Midnight Lute S.-G2 in late December but on fast ground the son of Square Eddie can return to his best form. He’s plenty quick but doesn’t need the lead to win and at 5-1 on the morning line is a “must use” rolling exotic play.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:12 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Ashleyluvssugar; 7-He Will

The California Cup Turf Classic looks made to order for Ashleyluvssugar. The 9/5 morning line favorite has much in his favor, including a preferred inside draw, a recent five furlong bullet workout, terrific form over this course (four wins in eight starts) and the switch to leading rider Flavien Prat. The veteran Game Plan gelding in Pete Eurton’s barn is dangerous at any distance but this nine furlong trip seems made to order. He Will found his best stride too late when unplaced in the San Simeon S.-G3 down the hill on opening day but gets more ground to work with today and should display considerable improvement. His sharp win two races back charts very well here, and he’s reunited with Rafael Bejarano, who won on him over the local lawn during the autumn season. Clear preference most go to Ashleyluvssugar but we’ll use both in all of our rolling exotics.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:44 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Prime Attraction; 4-Dadtaughtmewell

Prime Attraction is a lightly-raced and progressive colt who lost little when pressing the pace and then winding up second to the vastly improved Top of the Game in a fast, highly-rated race for the level last month. This will be just the fourth career start for the son of Unbridled’s Song, and we’re expecting another forward move by the Jim Cassidy-trained colt. At this one mile distance and from the inside post position, ‘Attraction is likely to be the controlling speed. Dadtaughtmewell seeks his third straight score and this ex-claimer should draft into an ideal stalking position. He’s not quite as fast on pure figures as ‘Attraction but with another bit of improvement he’ll be right there.

RACE 9: Post 4:15 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Ann Arbor Eddie: 3-Mr. Hinx; 7-Coils Gold

The California Cup Derby is a competitive affair topped by Ann Arbor Eddie, winner when stretching out for the first time of the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos. The son of Square Eddie has good tactical speed and should be favorably placed just behind the leaders, ready to pounce. Mr. Hinx won at first asking in clever style with a nice number and has the pedigree to handle this longer trip. He’s facing a significant class hike today but at 10-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.” Coils Gold won for fun in his debut for trainer Bob Baffert at Del Mar in November but his workouts since that race have been moderate at best. He’s also questionable around two turns, but on pure numbers he’s a fit, so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

RACE 10: Post 4:48 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Pavelski; 6-Panama Papers; 12-Glacier

The finale is a fairly decent maiden special weight turf mile affair for 3-year-olds. Pavelski was given a bit of an educational run in his debut on the main track and today stretches out and switches to turf in what should be a much more serious effort. With the switch to Prat, the D’Amato-trained colt looks very live, especially from the advantageous rail post positon. Glacier got the worst of the draw and must break from the far outside, but the son of Broken Vow, a $1.2 million auction purchase last spring, appears to be improving with experience and could produce another significant forward move today. Blinkers go on, so let’s expect this Bob Baffert-trained colt to have a strong presence every step of the way. Panama Papers, second in his last pair, should be in the fray throughout though we suspect that with five races under his belt he may have a bit less upside then the other two main contenders.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, January 28, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Lookin for a Kiss; 2-Homespun Hero

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Sweeping Paddy; 6-Dream Dancing

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RACE 3: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Genre; 3-Curlin’s Approval; 5-You Bought Her

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Ritzy Rose; 7-Shlee

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​RACE 5: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Stanford; 6-Madefromlucky

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Slaimy; 10-Appealing Briefs

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​​RACE 7: Post 2:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Moon River; 10-Triple Chelsea; 11-Nite Delite

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:04 ET.  Grade:  B+

Use: 3-Blind Ambition; 8-Lookin for Eight

RACE 9: Post 3:38 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Rainbow Heir; 2-Manhattan Dan; 11-Power Alert

RACE 10: Post: 4:14 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 7-Arles; 12-Suffused

 

RACE 11: Post 4:50 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Charming Kitten; 10-Mr Maybe

RACE 12: Post: 5:40 ET.  Grade: X

Use: 1-Arrogate; 12-California Chrome

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 28, 2017

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