Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 10, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 10, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Pistol Packin Rose; 8-Summertimemischief

The Friday opener, a maiden $30,000 claimer for older fillies and mares over a distance of ground, appears to have two main contenders and we’ll use both in our rolling exotics. Pistol Packin Rose, in the money in her last pair and dropping out of a winner’s race, has little to beat and with a sharp recent five furlong drill the daughter of First Defence should be cranked for her best race to date. She’s reunited with leading rider Flavien Prat, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Summertimemischief has some back numbers that would make her a strong threat, and she did show some signs of life when a closing second in an extended sprint vs. a softer group last month. You can toss her in on a ticket or two.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-You Missed It; 5-Upfront; 9-Stormin Babe

Maiden special weight fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the second race, an open affair requiring a spread. Upfront certainly is bred to love turf (War Front) and likely is much better than her only outing last summer as a 2-year-old gives her credit for. She’s trained solidly this time around for Richard Mandella (20% with comebackers), gets Prat, and should come out firing. You Missed It, in the money in all four career starts, is another launching a comeback and sports a healthy series of workouts at Los Alamitos for trainer Doug O’Neill. We’re expecting the daughter of Lookin At Lucky to be a strong late threat. Stormin Babe flashed ability in turf sprints in Maryland before being shipped to California and did well in her local debut to wind up third in an off-the-turf affair last month. She projects to draft into a good stalking spot outside and has every right to produce a forward move. Let’s go with Upfront slightly on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Individual Design; 3-Papaslilprincess

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a low-level claiming miler for fillies and mares. Individual Design, first off the claim for John Brocklebank, has hit the board in her last pair, adds blinkers, and may show a bit more tactical speed today from her rail post position. Beaten as the choice in her last start, she could easily make amends for her new connections. Papaslilprincess defeated Individual Design in that common race Feb. 11 and is the one to fear most again. She likes this track and should be running on late. Both should be included in you rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Amodei; 3-We Go Now

Three-year-olds competing for a $20,000 claiming tag sprint six furlongs in the fourth race. Amodei may be as good as any; the O’Neill-trained gelding finished a willing second in a slightly tougher spot last month and not much more will be needed against this group. We Go Now, third in the same race Amodei exits, retains Baze and could get very brave on the front end if he can shake loose early. These are the two main players in a lackluster affair that might be better off left alone.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Illuminant; 5-Prize Exhibit

The fifth race is the Wishing Well Stakes for fillies and mare sprinting down the Hillside course. Illuminant launches a comeback for trainer Mike McCarthy and is training like she’s fit and ready for a huge effort in her first outing since last May. Genuine and consistent and a prior winner over this tricky turf layout, the daughter of Quality Road catches a favorable pace scenario and should have every chance from a stalking position. Prize Exhibit can be tough sprinting or routing and can really turn it on in the final furlong with she’s on her game. A winner of the Megahertz Stakes over a mile in January, she’s a perfect one-for-one down the hill so the shortening in distance won’t bother her in the least. Mike Smith will have her rolling in the final furlong. We’ll give a slight edge on top to Illuminant but double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Quiet Dude; 4-Gentrified

 Maiden claiming $30,000 3-year-olds occupy the sixth race, a seven furlong affair, and we’ll zero on the two main contenders that we’ll use in rolling exotic play. Gentrified ran well at this level two runs back, was pitched a bit too high when tackling straight maidens two-turning up north, and today returns to Southern California at his proper level. The son of Malibu Moon doesn’t have a whole lot of tactical speed but against this group he should have every chance to produce the last run. Quiet Dude is one-paced to the max but has numbers that fit and really won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Life’s Blessing; 4-Zapperkat

The seventh race is stronger-than-par sprint for entry-level allowance 3-year-old fillies. Life’s Blessing, a debut winner last summer at Del Mar but off the track since, returns for trainer Bob Baffert with a series of strong workouts that should have here fit and ready. She has the perfect style for this extended sprint, retains Prat, and this daughter of Tapit from the brilliant race mare Indian Blessing gives every indication of being a highly-quality sort. Zapperkat, away since finishing a respectable third in the Chandelier S.-G1 last fall, won her debut impressively so you know she can fire fresh. Her work tab is light, but the Richard Baltas barn has excellent stats with comebackers so we’re going to assume that the daughter of Ghostzapper is fit enough for a good effort. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Life’s Blessing.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Wealthy Shipman; 9-Dissension

The nightcap is a slalom event for mid-grade claiming fillies and mares. Wealthy Shipman won an optional claimer over this course last month in good style with a career top number and if she can turn in two alike she can score right back. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard for Baltas. Dissension won a Hillside turf claimer last fall, failed to make any impressive vs. tougher two-turning in her comeback, and seems likely to improve under today’s conditions. The veteran mare has 11 career victories to her credit and always must be respected. Let’s try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Wealthy Shipman.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, March 10, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Chepstow; 5-Goodtimehadbyall

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B

Single: 5-My Miss Tapit

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Front Row Debbie; 4-Vanishing Lady

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Ascertain; 6-Nonna Bella

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Speight Swiftly; 7-Tu Exageres

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-More Mia; 8-Morning Brew; 10-Frisky Magician

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Lapse; 8-Champions Maternal

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Menehune; 3-Leverkusen; 4-Sanad

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Jay Gatsby

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Springmeier; 7-Yellow Chips

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Mojo Rising; 7-Rediscover

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 10, 2017

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