Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 12, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, March 12, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Margie’s Minute

The Sunday program begins with a $20,000 claiming main track mile affair for fillies and mares. Margie’s Minute is a good, consistent performer in the Ray Bell barn and seems primed for another honest effort after finishing a strong runner-up in an extended sprint vs. tougher last month. Leading rider Flavien Prat stays aboard and should have this daughter of Hard Spun along in time, though at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Velvet Jones; 5-Rcatcanscat

Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $20,000 meet over six furlongs in the second race. Velvet Jones, away since early December and shortening to a sprint, looks tough to beat at this level with anything close to her best effort, A bullet half mile workout last week should have this Vann Belvoir-trained mare right on edge, and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she should be able to produce the last run. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Rcatcanscat, a beaten choice when runner-up vs. slightly tougher in a mile affair last month. She’s a route-to-sprint play and in fact may be most comfortable around one turn.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-West Coast

 West Coast flashed big promise in his racing debut when a smart runner-up to stablemate Bronze Age in a highly-rated affair last month. The son of Flatter seems certain to produce a forward move for trainer Bob Baffert, who has excellent stats with second-time starters. This is a very good prospect and arguably the most likely winner on the card, but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do other than to use him a short-priced rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Calle Kingpin; 9-Fortune of War; 11-Farley

The Pick-6 begins with a contentious maiden special weight affair over a mile on turf that requires a spread. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Fortune of War ran reasonably well when fourth vs. similar in his U.S. debut last month and has every right to step forward today with that effort behind him. The Eric Kruljac-trained ridgeling switches to Corey Nakatani and should draft into an ideal second flight trip. Calle Kingpin, nosed out in a similar event after establishing the pace without pressure, will be facing more heat today and might have to employ stalking tactics, but the son of Street Boss figures in the picture under any circumstances and is a “must use.” Farley is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer for his first start since October but the son of Distorted Humor has trained well for his comeback for Doug O’Neill and has back numbers that put him the fray. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Jill Madden; 6-Harbored Affair; 8-Bobbie Lincoln

Harbored Affair debuts for a high-priced tag and has trained well enough to score at first asking. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained filly is bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree and has been given the proper foundation to be fit and ready first crack out of the box. Bobbie Lincoln has done some good work in the a.m. for trainer Ron Ellis and is bred to win early (Tribal Rule). Drawn comfortably outside, she should have every chance with a pace-forcing trip. Jill Madden clearly is the best of the known element, having been nosed out in a similar maiden claimer over this track and distance last month. She’s not particularly fast on speed figures but should have every chance from a pace-prompting position. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Harbored Affair.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 9-Desert General

Desert General has little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming mile affair and with only four career starts on his resume probably has upside that most of the others don’t. He should benefit by the sharp drop in class and the stretch out to two-turns; additionally, he’ll race with blinkers off while retaining Tyler Baze. Despite being unplaced in four career starts, the son of Desert Code has speed figures that make him strictly the one to beat, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Goodyearforroses

Goodyearforroses was quite impressive winning the Astra II Stakes at a mile and one-half over this turf course last month and looks well-spotted for a repeat score in today’s Santa Ana S.-G2 despite dropping back in trip to nine furlongs. The Irish-bred mare continues to impress in the morning and retains Nakatani, who knows her well. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B-

Use: 4-Out of Patience; 9-Percy’s Bluff

We’ll use two in the eighth race, a starter’s handicap for $10,000 sprinters while preferring Percy’s Bluff on top. The Bay Area invader seeks his seventh straight win after being vanned down from Golden Gate Fields, picks up Prat, and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the switch from all-weather to dirt. Out of Patience makes his first start since joining the Jorge Periban barn after being haltered for $20,000, and after winning his last pair the son of Heart of the Storm really won’t have to improve much at all to extend the streak to three.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Burnaroundtheedges; 2-Terzetto; 3-Beach View

The finale is a 10-furlong turf event for first-level allowance horses; it’s a fairly wide-open affair so let’s go three-deep while trying long shot Terzetto on top. A two-time winner in his native Brazil over a mile and one-quarter on grass, the John Sadler-trained import has every reason to step forward today with the switch to the lawn, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout under bug boy Roman. Give that kind of trip, the son of Elusive Quality seems capable of outrunning his 12-1 morning line odds. Burnaroundtheedges is lightly raced with some ability and should enjoy a great trip from his favorable rail draw. The gelded son of Vronsky comes off a solid effort in an off-the-turfer and should run at least as well with the return to grass. Beach View closed with interest to be a strong second in his first start since last September and if he doesn’t “bounce” the son of Giant’s Causeway will be a major player.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Sunday, March 12, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Matty’s Wondergirl; 6-Pat M’s Image; 9-Lookin for Money

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-I’m Steppin’ It Up; 5-Over the Limit;

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Baby Lia; 5-Riberena

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Dungeness; 7-Gucciguccigirl

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Been Waiting; 7-Adagio

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Rare Gem; 7-Cuddle Kitten

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Red King; 7-Alls Well; 8-Hat in the Ring

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Sweet Connie Girl; 3-Bogulator; 10-Run Blondie Run

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Refer; 6-Speightstown Time; 8-Boca Scuttlebutt

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Tide of the Desert; 5-American Tzar

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade:

Single: 8-Epping Forest

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Homespun Hero; 7-The Son Wind

 

RACE 13: Post: 6:05 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 5-Elegant Supermodel; 7-Kitzys Rocket; 8-Dad’s Princess

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 12, 2017

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