Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, March 16, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-My Italian Babbo; 2-Kristi’s Copilot

The Thursday opener drew just five runners, with Kristi’s Copilot the logical top pick. Beaten a nose in a $20,000 claimer with a career top speed figure, the son of Lucky Pulpit is protected today in a first-level state-bred allowance race and a repeat of his last effort should be more than good enough to handle this task. My Italian Babbo, with just four career starts, has plenty of room for improvement and will race with blinkers today for the first time. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding is worth using on a ticket or two in your rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Street to Indy; 6-Conqueror

High-priced maiden claimers sprint down the hill in the second race. Canadian invader Conqueror hasn’t been out since last June but returns in a proper spot for trainer Vladimir Cerin (superior stats with comebackers) and has trained like he’s fit and ready. He’s a first-time gelding showing up in a seller for the first timer and will be ridden by Cerin’s go-to jockey, Kent Desormeaux. There’s plenty of value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Street to Indy tries turf for the first time and should be late threat. We’ll use him as a saver.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Ipray; 6-Back Beauty

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a starter handicap for $12,500 fillies and mares. Back Beauty stretches out for the first time and if she can route as well as she can sprint the veteran mare should be able to outrun this field. She’s always been genuine and consistent, sports two prior wins over this main track, and should secure a good pace-stalking position. Ipray, claimed in her last three starts and now in the Jerry Hollendorfer barn (27% with a flat-bet profit with this angle), is another with a distinct affection for this surface and figures to draft into a cozy positon just off the pace while saving ground. We’ll try to get by using just these two, with slight preference on top to Back Beauty

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Batiquitos

Batiquitos has done everything right in the morning for high-percentage trainer Bill Spawr and looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking in this state-bred sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Dixie Chatter had the misfortune of drawing the rail, but she’s shown plenty of zip in her gate drills, so if she breaks with her field she should be on or near the lead throughout. At 2-1 on the morning, she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Fregosi

Fregosi is a first-time starter with a good enough series of workouts to win a high priced maiden claimer. Bred for turf and with a proper foundation that should have him fit and ready, the Leonard Powell-trained gelding catches a below par field for the level and offers considerable value at or near his 8-1 morning line. Tyler Baze takes the mount and has been aboard this sophomore in the morning. Let’s make the son of Elusive Quality a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Gunslinger; 8-I’malreadythere

I’malreadythere drops to his lowest level ever and if he has one good one left he’ll handle this assignment. The veteran past-classer retains leading rider Flavien Prat and looks capable of producing the last run. As a saver we’ll toss in Gunslinger, a sharp dropper from the Mark Glatt barn who stretches out to a more favorable distance in his second start off a layoff. The Indian Charlie gelding should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to be slowly run early.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Little Voice; 4-Plastered; 10-Betty Draper

The featured seventh race is a contentious Hillside turf course sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares. We’ll use three while preferring Little Voice on top. Away since November but training in superb style for Ben Cecil, she flashed excellent form in her only outing since being imported from England when a closing third in a five furlong dash at Del Mar. With an extra furlong and a half to work with today, she should be along in time under Desormeaux. Plastered is another dangerous comebacker; she’s a first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer making her first start since changing barns for $40,000 last fall. The works indicate she has all of her speed, and with five wins from 10 career starts she certainly knows where the wire is. Betty Draper invades from France where she displayed plenty of ability in a four-race career. Her workouts are solid, she’s a first-time Lasix user, and projects to be a factor from off the pace.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 2-Kenzou’s Empire; 7-Menace the Dennis; 10-Moonman

The finale is a maiden-claiming router for 3-year-olds that requires a spread. Use as many as you can afford to. Menace the Dennis has yet to finish within hailing distance of the winner but this considerable class drop that could make a world of difference. The work tab continues to be solid, the switch to Prat is a positive move, so let’s expect this Doug O’Neill-trained son of Into Mischief to turn in a form reversal in his first start for a tag. Moonman showed some life up north when finishing a willing runner-up in a maiden special weight affair over the all-weather surface; a similar try today on dirt puts him right there. Kenzou’s Empire projects to be prominent throughout under Rafael Bejarano and really won’t have to improve much to be right there at the end. Let’s go with Menace the Dennis on top but demand at least his morning line odds of 7/2.

 

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GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, March 16, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-General Sham’mah; 7-Jaiden’s Best

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Keeker; 6-I Will Be Free; 8-Two Step Flor

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Gone Deep; 4-Mass Approval

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-St. Louie; 6-Bow Tie Affair

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Pomera; 9-Venezuelan Beauty

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Cape Mist; 6-Cinder; 7-Magician’s Vanity

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Fiore; 4-Poopsie Doopsie; 6-I’m Thirsty

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Moreno Mojo; 8-Cape Apache; 12-Fact Check

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sir Sebastian; 4-Erasmo’s Dream; 12-Francesco Flier

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Easy to Say; 7-Shaft of Life

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Blame the Law; 10-Dar Motivos

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 16, 2017

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