Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 18, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, March 18, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: California Journey

California Journey is a first-time starter with a series of excellent works, and seems primed and ready for a major effort first crack out of the for trainer Mike Puype. The known element doesn’t impress in this state-bred maiden turf event, so let’s go with this talented colt as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Tribal Jewel

Tribal Jewel was a voided claim in a similar spot in late December and was returned to the Bill Spawr barn. His current work tab looks a little spotty, but if Tribal Rule gelding delivers anything close to his best race he’ll handle this task without much worry. In a race that we probably won’t get too much involved in, let’s make ‘Jewel a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Yellow Bonnet; 6-Road Test

Six maiden sophomore fillies meet over a mile on the main track in the third race. Road Test has rising speed figures for trainer Doug O’Neill and with another forward move today the daughter of Bellamy Road looks capable of earning her diploma in a below par field. Yellow Bonnet returns to dirt and her effort over this track and distance two races back makes her the one to beat. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Road Test on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Rye; 7-Vigilante

Rye has never been better and may very well have even more improvement in him. A winner of his last pair in visually pleasing style, the son of English Channel is fast on speed figures and appears to really appreciate Kent Desormeaux, who clearly gets the most run out of this Billy Morey-trained colt. We’ll put him on top but also use Vigilante, away since December of 2015 for trainer Phil D’Amato but training in sharp style. If he’s ready, the son of Tiznow will be heard from late.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Anechoic; 5-Rebel War; 7-Excavation

The fifth race is an expensive ($100,000) maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-olds that looks fairly challenging and requires a spread. Excavation has been chasing straight maiden foes while earning okay numbers and should really appreciate the class relief. He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Fuentes and looks very much like the one to beat. Anechoic adds blinkers for his second career start after flashing good zip before weakening late in a similar affair last month. He should be fitter and tougher today and could be the one to catch. Rebel War, away since last summer, showed plenty of zip during his juvenile campaign and if he returns as well as he left he should fit very well at this level. The barn doesn’t win many but this colt is worth including in your rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Too Fast to Pass; 6-Rangi

Rangi seeks his third straight score and is clearly the one to beat after demolishing a similar field in an off-the-turfer last month. He’s not being raised in class, and that’s a bit of a concern, but if the Peter Miller-trained gelding has one good one left he’ll most likely extend his streak. Too Fast to Pass was a beaten choice vs. $40,000 foes in late January but was highly impressive winning in this league two runs back. That race, if repeated today, puts him right there. Let’s prefer Rangi on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:38 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 3-Enola Gray

Enola Gray is perfect in two starts over this downhill turf course and should continue that way today in this California-bred stakes for fillies and mares. She’s developed a pace-stalking style that keeps her free of trouble, so jockey Tyler Baze, who knows her well, should have her in the first flight throughout, ready to pounce. She’s certain to be a short price, so let’s just use her as a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 1-True Ranger

True Ranger is long overdue for a win and seems to have found the proper spot to get back on track. The son of U. S. Ranger will need a bit of luck from the rail, as he prefers to settle and produce a run, but if he can secure clear sailing from the quarter pole home he should be along in time. He’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Vale Dori; 3-Finest City

It’s hard to pick against Vale Dori – the Bob Baffert-trained mare has won her last four starts in convincing fashion against similar opposition – and if she turns in her usual performance today she’ll make it five straight. Finest City certainly is worth some consideration, at least as a saver or a back-up in rolling exotic play. She’s tough at any distance or surface and should be on or near the lead throughout following her impressive score in the Santa Monica S.-G2 in last January.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:15 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Catfish Hunter; 8-Marckie’s Water

Catfish Hunter had a nightmarish trip in his debut vs. maiden claimers, yet still finished a willing third, beaten just two lengths. He’s protected today while stretching out to a mile and trying grass, but if the D’Amato-trained colt leaves with his field and establishes the pace, he may never look back. We’ll also use Marckie’s Water, a gradually improving Tribal Rule colt who might be the most dangerous of the closers.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, March `8, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-El Seventyseven; 5-Gran the Man; 6-Barrel of Love

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Feel Proud; 5-Final Edition; 7-Traffic Express

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Case Dismissed; 8-Rachelgotstephen

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:05 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 1-My Girl Corey

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​RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Bay Point Count; 7-Hy Dandy

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Delightful Lana; 10-Nothin But Trouble; 11-O. K. Kay

​​RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Legacy Azteca; 5-Crocodile Charlie; 6-Illmatic

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Flowmotion; 7-Conquest Bandit

RACE 9: Post 4:37 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Kitten for Granny; 5-Casby’s Kid; 10-Bourbon Commander

RACE 10: Post: 5:08 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Burgameister; 6-Tolstoy; 9-King Power

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:39 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Dearest; 6-Curlin’s Approval

 

RACE 12: Post: 6:10 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Chivalrous; 4-Ransack; 6-Cavity

 

RACE 13: Post: 6:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Hampstead Heath; 10-Hidden Vow; 11-Rock Eagle

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 18, 2017

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