Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 19, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, March 19, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Last One Standing; 5-Juansagain

The Sunday opener has a couple of major question marks masquerading as contenders and thus is a difficult race to embrace. Last One Standing is dropping two levels off an Eddie Truman claim, but he did win at this level two runs back and if can repeat that type of effort today he’ll be right there. Juansagain is waiver protected off a long layoff and if returns as well as he left he’s more than good enough to win. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but the confidence level isn’t high, so we suggest you tread lightly.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Cupid’s Beau; 4-Atomic Action

Cupid’s Beau was almost seven clear of the rest when runner-up in a similar event last month and he probably won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma today. The Steve Miyadi-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout. Atomic Action, away since September but training like he’s fit and ready, returns for trainer Jeff Bonde, who has superior stats with layoff runners. The Cyclotron gelding also has back speed figures that put him right there. We’ll slightly prefer Cupid’s Beau on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Green With Eddie; 4-Milton Freewater

Green With Eddie hasn’t been seen since a very impressive win in the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar last summer; if he’s as good now as he was then he’ll be hard to beat, rail and all. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt has worked well enough to be fit and clearly can fire fresh, having won his debut over this main track as a two-year-old. Milton Freewater also will be making his sophomore debut after a productive juvenile campaign and could easily be an improved colt in his first start since mid-December. The son of Creative Cause will be doing his best work in the final furlong. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Green With Eddie on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Langham; 6-Ziconic

Langham was very impressive in his debut last summer at Del Mar, finishing full of run but winding up second in a fast, highly-rated affair. He returns for trainer John Sadler with a strong series of workouts that should have him fit and ready, and jockey Mike Smith should have this son of Fastnet Rock rolling in the final furlong. Ziconic also is launching a comeback and we suspect he’ll appreciate the switch to turf. The son of Tapit and Zenyatta chased Arrogate home when last seen in June of last year and we doubt there’s anybody quite that good in here. Preference goes to Langham but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Uncle Billy; 5-Lord Simba

Lord Simba earned a giant speed figure when second in a similar maiden special weight sprint in January and returns today in a race he really should win. Though he’s been gone for more than two months, the son of Discreet Cat has trained of late like he retains all of his speed. Uncle Billy represents stranger danger; the son of Uncle Mo makes his debut for trainer Peter Miller with a series of promising workouts at San Luis Rey Downs on his resume and despite the rail deserves to be included in rolling exotic play on at least a saver ticket.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Nickname; 2-Lajatico

Nickname was impressive in her California debut last month, rallying bravely in the final furlong to finish second over this course and distance in a similar second level allowance event for fillies and mares. She’s maintained her form in the morning since that outing and should produce a forward move today for the Richard Mandella stable, which has excellent stats with second-off-layoff runners. We’re expecting leading jockey Flavien Prat to have her along in time. Lajatico catches a field without much zip and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. Third in the same race Nickname exits, the English-bred filly is worth including in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Sly Humor; 6-Aura Rose

Sly Humor ran away and hid in her first-off-the-claim for Jerry Hollendorfer, earning a superior speed figure when defeating a maiden $50,000 field last month. Not much better will be needed for a repeat score against this tougher group, and her recent workouts indicate the daughter of Into Mischief is set for another significant forward move. We like her on top but we’ll also toss in Aura Rose, fresh from a nine length romp vs. maiden $30,000 foes last month and now in the Richard Baltas barn following a claim. She’s considerably slower on numbers than Sly Humor but may be a logical exacta partner with the favorite, if nothing else.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Use: 8-Conquest Farenheit; 10-Bird Is the Word

Conquest Farenheit could not have been more impressive than he was winning the Baffle Stakes down the hill last month and today’s extra distance shouldn’t be an issue. He’s fast on figures and could be the controlling speed, though a stalk-and-pounce strategy may be employed if the race flow dictates. Bird Is the Word was visually quite impressive breaking his maiden over this course and if gets some help up front could be heard from in the final furlong. Conquest Farenheit clearly is preferred on top but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Liberty Jack

Liberty Jack, first off the claim for Billy Morey, finds a very soft field of maiden claiming sophomores in today’s nightcap and with any kind of forward move should earn his diploma. A sharp recent workout for his new connections catches the eye and the speed figure he earned two runs back is more than good enough to win a race in this league. The switch to Tyler Baze is yet another positive factor, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Sunday, March 19, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Hassah; 7-Bull Empress

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Solfatara; 3-Flash Jak

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RACE 3: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Cottofina; 5-Resolana

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:05 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Bealstreet Dancer

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​RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Venom Girl

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Wolf Dance; 7-Burning Wild

​​RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Diamond Mint; 8-J B’s Big Red

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Blue Bahia; 6-Scuba Sue

RACE 9: Post 4:37 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Moral High Ground; 4-Arghad; 5-Flying Bullet

RACE 10: Post: 5:08 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Bourgeois; 8-Bixby Lou; 9-Sheplaysthefield

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:39 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Jermyn Street; 4-Notapradaprice; 9-Fahan Mura

 

RACE 12: Post: 6:10 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 8-Girl Talk; 9-Bow Town Cat

 

RACE 13: Post: 6:41 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Cajun Queen; 5-Fearless Princess

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 19, 2017

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