Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 2, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, March 2, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Marchtothemusic

Marchtothemusic drops sharply in class, adds blinkers for the first time and continues to train in sharp fashion. The Parading gelding also sports the route-to-sprint angle we like for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (good stats with this angle) and should greatly appreciate the turn back in trip. However, at 7/5 on the morning line he offers little in the way of wagering value other than as a short priced rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-My Pi Romancer; 3-Princess Roi

Princess Roi exits a pair of strong stakes and drops for the money run in this entry-level allowance affair over a mile on turf for sophomore fillies. She figures to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting trip and will have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. My Pi Romancer probably is most comfortable on the lead and from the rail she’s likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Her maiden win over this course and distance two races back charts very well here. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Princess Roi.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Spicy Blonde; 3-Little Bit Lovely; 4-Stealth Drone

The third race is a fairly competitive $25,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, with three of the six entrants having a very good look at it. Stealth Drone, away since late December, plummets in class and adds blinkers; she’s been looking quite good in the a.m. in recent weeks and can be expected to bounce back to her best form at this level. However, her morning line of 9/5 makes her somewhat unattractive. Little Bit Lovely also is adding blinkers after failing as the favorite in the same race Stealth Drone exits; she’s reunited with Flavien Prat, who has won on her in the past, so we suspect this Jack Carava-trained mare will show her best stuff today. Spicy Blonde is another exiting that common race on Feb. 2 and wound up a decent third after pressing the issue while wide throughout. She lands the rail today and will be a factor throughout if she leaves cleanly and avoids any kind of trouble. All three should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Hill Four Eleven; 4-Curly Road

Hill Four Eleven finished a fading fourth in his first start in more than a year recently but probably was in need of the outing and likely will produce a forward move today. At this level his natural speed should carry him a long way, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the son of Tiz Wonderful probably isn’t going to offer much in the way of wagering value. Curly Road won a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint here last month while earning a career top speed figure; he’s facing tougher today and may be hard pressed to repeat but in his present form he’s worth using on a ticket or two.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Kopitar

Kopitar has trained like a good thing at Los Alamitos for his racing debut and looks extremely live at first asking for good trainer Phil D’Amato. The son of Shackleford must overcome the inside draw but if he breaks running he should be tough to deny in what appears to be a slightly below par field for the level. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 4-1.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Justonetimebaby; 8-Air Force Cadet

Justonetimebaby, first off the claim for John Sadler and returning from a 10 month layoff, has been working like he’s fit and ready and has the kind of early speed to overcome the rail post. He’s realistically spotted in this maiden $50,000 affair and seems as good as any in an open affair. Air Force Cadet is a first-timer with an okay work tab for Mike Machowsky and is worth tossing in as well. We’ll try to get by using just these two.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade:  B+

Use: 4-Vigilante; 5-Aotearoa; 7-Calculator

Vigilante makes his first start in more than two years but has trained quite well for D’Amato and with Prat aboard looks very much like a live item. The lightly-raced son of Tiznow never sprinted in five previous starts but he can turn it on late and this downhill course might fit him perfectly. There may be some value here at 5-1 on the morning line. Calculator is another comebacker with a right to run huge. Away since last summer, the Peter Miller-trained horse certainly can fire fresh and his workouts at San Luis Rey Downs indicate he still has plenty of speed and ability. Aotearoa hasn’t won in ages but his recent form is better than the paper indicates and with three prior wins over the Santa Anita turf course this Leonard Powell-trained gelding is worth tossing in as well.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Aiming Straight; 5-Miss Big Stuff

The finale is an abbreviated sprint for bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares. Miss Big Stuff will outclass this bunch if she has one good one left. She should be quick enough to make the lead and in a field lacking in closers might be able to hang on. Aiming Straight is a winner from Los Alamitos and projects to inherit a good stalking spot behind the ‘Stuff, the likely pacesetter. She’s run well in the past over this main track and seems the one to fear most. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics in a race that we’re not planning on getting too involved in.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, March 2, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Bermuda Triangle

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Transformative; 6-Giant Inka; 7-Rich Daddy

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-You’re My Destiny

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Two Step Blues; 3-Biondetti’s Choice; 6-River Spring

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Distinctive Style; 7-Howlin Mad Smith

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Vasilika; 7-Lucy in Disguise

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Loving Valentina

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  X

Single: 4-Budding

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Stockyard

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Bun Bun; 5-Rich Mommy

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Eloy Rod; 6-Noble Dave; 10-Stone Heart

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 2, 2017

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