Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 30, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, March 30, 2017

​​

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-General Mach Four; 6-Night’s Watch

The Thursday opener is a starter’s allowance middle distance event with two main contenders. Night’s Watch graduated in straight maiden company up north in clever style but is eligible to this race because he competed a tag two races back. His numbers continue to rise with experience and with another forward move today he should be tough to beat. General Mach Four pulverized a maiden claiming group sprinting in his debut, and if he can project that form around two turns the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding should be competitive right back. He’s worked well in the interim and based strictly on pedigree isn’t likely to have any difficulty with the added route. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Night’s Watch a very slight edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Rum Cake; 10-Lady Espionage

Lady Espionage ran very well over this course and distance when second in a similar straight maiden affair last month, and with any kind of forward move today the daughter of Lucky Pulpit should be hard to beat. A bullet six furlong workout at San Luis Rey Downs since that race provides evidence that further improvement is forthcoming. Rum Cake is a sneaky first-timer from the Doug O’Neill barn. Her work pattern at Los Alamitos looks promising and she’s bred both for speed (Square Eddie) and turf (Irish River. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Lady Exchange.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Blameitonthelaw; 4-Annie’s Candy; 6-Distinctiv Passion

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a second-level main track allowance sprint. Distinctiv Passion just won a real sizzler from the rail vs. slightly softer foes and today draws the more comfortable outside post. If he can turn in two alike – never one of his strong suits – the Jeff Bonde-trained veteran could be long gone again. We’ll use him but won’t single him. Annie’s Candy (first off the claim for Eddie Truman) and Blameitonthelaw (always a threat from off the pace) are worth including as well.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Scathing; 7-Latina Mo

Scathing has finished second in her last pair while facing similar restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming company and with just slight improvement today should regain her winning form. It will be interesting to see how she responds to wearing blinkers for the first time. Latina Mo was a maiden claiming winner two races back while earning a figure that makes her a solid fit with these. She’s drawn comfortably outside and should benefit from a soft pace-stalking trip. Let’s prefer Scathing on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Excessive Kid; 7-Freddies Dream; 10-Buymeabond

A salty group of $32,000 older claiming turf milers makes the fifth race a challenging affair. Buymeabond drops a notch, shortens up, and looks capable of producing the last run with good racing luck. The Peter Miller-trained gelding has won 12 races during his career. Freddies Dream remains above his claim level in a sign of confidence by trainer Jack Carava, retains Flavien Prat, and is another capable of producing a winning late kick. He returns to his preferred distance and with some help up front will be heard from late. Excessive Kid, a solid runner-up off a long layoff for trainer Carla Gaines, adds blinkers for the first time, switches to Kent Desormeaux, and makes his first appearance in a claimer. He has back numbers that fit and three solid workouts since raced, so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Wondering Ways; 4-Zachian; 6-Magik Pepper

The sixth race is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older horses. Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. The come-backing Magik Pepper has some early speed, drops to the bottom, and should stick much better in this league in his first start since September. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding could easily be a better type this time around.   Zachian didn’t run badly in his debut – he finished a no-excuse third with an okay figure for the level – and may have more room to improve than most of the others. The barn usually does well with second-timers and Martin Pedroza stays aboard for Carava. Wondering Ways is another dangerous second-off-a-layoff play for a trainer (Brian Koriner) that has excellent stats with this angle. He should be fitter and tougher today, especially with drop to the bottom rung.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Moonlight Drive; 6-Fabozzi

Moonlight Drive is double tough on this course at this distance and seems primed for another major effort. He’s a cut below the real good ones on this circuit but fits very well in this three-other-than affair. Rafael Bejarano knows him well and stays aboard. Fabozzi was in a tad too tough when fourth in a listed stakes down the hill earlier this month but likely will appreciate this return to a mile, and on pure numbers is a strong fit in this condition. He should get the patient ride he needs from Corey Nakatani. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Moonlight Drive on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 3-No Spin Zone; 6-Magical Lucy

The finale is a maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies at the abbreviated five and one-half furlong sprint distance. Magical Lucy catches a modest group for her racing debut and has trained well enough to warrant a big look first crack out of the box for the D’Amato barn. A $75,000 auction purchase as a two-year-old, she shows up cheap and may have some issues but in this affair a little will go a very long way. No Spin Zone has a race two runs back that charts very well here and after a brief freshening could be set to regain her best form. We’ll prefer Magical Lucy on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, March 30, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Sweet Butterfly; 4-Keeker; 5-Pink Princess

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Final Flurry

​​​

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Harryhee; 6-Keep Me Grounded

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Make Me

​​

​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Adagio; 6-Mystical Myles

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Moreno Mojo; 6-Traffic Express

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Rontos Lily; 3-Whipsnade

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Leroy’s Image; 7-Mason’s Song; 9-Songeur

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Dungeness; 3-Proper Princess

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Involuntary; 4-Gotachancetodance; 7-Hidden Turn

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Sistine Sista; 5-Front Row Debbie

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 30, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |