Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 31, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 31, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Hot Paris Night; 6-Dream Police

Dream Police is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita main track and is just one-for-16 overall, yet the Richard Baltas-trained gelding appears to fit very nicely in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler and is reunited with jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has gotten good run out of him in the past. The son of Wildcat Heir seems like a logical top pick, but at 4/5 on the morning there’s really not much we can do with him. Hot Paris Night is lightly-raced, consistent, and with rising speed figures, so he certainly deserves strong consideration as well. In a race we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-So Golden; 7-Well Caught

Well Caught ran a winning race when runner-up in a similar affair over this course and distance in mid-February and recent workouts give indication that he’ll perform just as well today, if not better. Fresh from earning a career top speed figure, the Paddy Gallagher-trained Irish-bred should be along in time, but at 4/5 on the morning line he offers no real wagering value. So Golden, second in four of his last five starts but a beaten choice in his last three, isn’t one to trust but he should enjoy a good ground-saving trip form his rail draw and probably is worth including in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-El Huerfano; 4-Cat Burglar

El Huerfano shortens up after missing as the choice in a highly-rated middle distance event in this condition last time out and looks capable of regaining his winning form, rail and all. The Peter Miller-trained gelding should be prominent throughout in a field lacking in early zip. Cat Burglar has been away since last May but his works indicate fitness and the Bob Baffert-trained veteran, while probably prepping for a router, could be good enough to make some noise at this trip. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to El Huerfano.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Arch of Troy; 3-Sheza Chattykat; 5-Runnin for Tuition

High priced maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies compete in the fourth race, with newcomer Running for Tuition expected to get plenty of support based on a series of sharp workouts for trainer Jeff Bonde (strong stats with debut runners). The daughter of Hansen has done everything in the morning like a filly capable of winning at this level first crack out of the box. Sheza Chattykat has plenty of zip and will insure a hot pace. She needs to improve her stick, but this class drop into the maiden claiming ranks should help. Arch of Troy is another first-timer with a decent series of workouts and could be a live item, though her rail post does her no favors. Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Running for Tuition on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Bolitas Boyz; 5-Top Fortitude

Bolitas Boyz appears to have the proper style for this extended sprint distance and this class drop to the $32,000 level could make the winning difference. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained horse exits a fast, highly-rated and productive race and seems sure to improve big time against this group. Top Fortitude, a closing third in his last pair, very likely will produce another forward move today and may be the one to fear most. Always most effective as a late-running sprinter, the veteran Arizona-bred horse in Phil Oviedo’s barn switches to Martin Pedroza and is long overdue for a win. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with Bolitas Boyz the preferred top selection.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Allsquare; 4-That’s a Lady; 6-Plastered

First-level allowance fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in the sixth race, an open affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Allsquare may be as good as any; the daughter of Square Eddie exists a quick sprint and should appreciate today’s stretch out in trip. She’s also has the second-off-a-layoff angle from a barn that has good stats in this category, and back figures that are more than good enough to win a race like this. That’s a Lady is another with prior form that charts very well here; the John Sadler-trained daughter of City Zip switches to Tyler Baze, stretches out again and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. Plastered returns to the main track and stretches out to her preferred distance so the Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Wilburn – a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track – is a solid contender and a “must use” in exotic play.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Burnaroundtheedges; 6-Alsatian

Alsatian had a nice prep down the Hillside course last month in his first outing since last summer and seems sure to step forward considerably with that effort behind him and today’s stretch out in trip. Leading rider Flavien Prat stays aboard for trainer Neil Drysdale and should have this son of Acclamation rolling in the final furlong. Burnaroundtheedges shortens from 10 furlongs to a flat mile and has speed figures that fit. He’s worth using as a saver in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Quiet No More; 8-Agent Nine T Nine

Quiet No More chased straight maidens up north in her debut earlier this month and today should get serious with the class drop down to the bottom-rung maiden claiming ranks. The Eoin Harty-trained daughter of Include gets blinkers and Bejarano and doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Agent Nine T Nine finished a close second vs. similar over this track and distance two runs back and a repeat of that effort today makes her the one to fear most. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press on a few extra tickets with Quiet No More on top.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, March 31, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Global Magician; 3-Banzai Charge; 4-More Mia

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Venezuelan King; 5-Collective Wisdom; 7-Take to Church

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RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Gilded Warrior; 7-Rollin Smoke

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Moon Over Paris; 4-Camaria

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 8-Enders Cat

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Dreaming of Neno; 6-Prudhoe Bay

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Avast Matey; 2-The Son Wind; 8-Tarpys Zapper

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Summer Scamp; 5-Jacala; 6-Diddley

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Florida Fabulous; 5-Spice Lady

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade:

Use: 5-Money Market; 6-Shot Jak

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Nassau Talent; 8-Market Strength; 10-Kitten’s Dilemma

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 31, 2017

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