Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 4, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, March 4, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Banze No Oeste; 5-Serbian Syclone

The Saturday opener is a downhill turf sprint for $50,000 claimers and came up fairly competitive; we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Serbian Syclone, away since November, makes his first start for Mark Glatt off the claim (strong stats with this angle) and has trained like he’s fit and ready. A previous winner over this course and distance, the son of Wildcat Heir should draft into a good pace-prompting position. Banze No Oeste, also freshened since November, returns for high percentage trainer Peter Miller while dropping into a claimer for the first time. A repeat of his race before last puts him right there.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 9-Will Tell

Will Tell was highly impressive breaking his maiden recently in his first start since June for new trainer Vladimir Cerin and looks capable of repeating on the raise with a similar performance. The son of Creative Cause is stretching out from six furlongs to a mile but should be able to handle the added ground, and a sharp recent half mile workout gives indication this sophomore gelding will run at least as well today, if not better. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Bona Fide Image; 8-Bella Be Quick

Maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies meet at six furlongs in the third race; we’ll use two while preferring Bona Fide Image on top. Freshened since early January, the daughter of Southern Image has the route-to-spring angle we like and is adding blinkers for the first time for high percentage trainer Bill Spawr. Her numbers make her the one to beat. Bella Be Quick, in the money in her last pair, isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but seems to be a trier and should at least land in the frame once again.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Te Rapa; 3-Tattenham; 5-All Call

The fourth race is a grass grab bag at a mile for $25,000 claimers and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Te Rapa appears to be training well for his first outing since August and has back form that makes him a strong fit under these conditions. His 1-for-18 record over the Santa Anita turf course hardly inspires, but in an open fray he may be as good as any. Tattenham ran well in Phoenix last month, removes blinkers, has looked sharp in the a.m. since returning and should be a strong late factor under Kent Desormeaux, who knows him well. All Call was overmatched vs. starter’s company last time out but isn’t today and should regain his best form. The Bob Hess-trained gelding will be a strong late threat if given the patient ride he requires. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press on a few extra tickets keying Te Rapa.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

The fifth race is an inscrutable low-level claiming sprint. Eddie’s First and Prohibition Repeal both look like obvious contenders on form, but both were voided claims in their last start and have serious questions regarding condition. This is a race we’ll pass; rolling exotic players should use as many as they can afford to.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Unique Bella

Unique Bella is 1/5 on the morning line for the very simple reason that she’s the best 3-year-old (male or female) in North America. Grade-1 winner Abel Talisman will be the most talented filly she will have faced to date and clearly looks like a logical exacta partner, but for the purpose of rolling exotic play, ‘Bella is an obvious slam dunk, no value single.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Fabozzi; 8-Stormy Liberal

Vastly improved Fabozzi gets his stiffest test yet but this lightly-raced son of Sidney’s Candy has the proper style for the Hillside course and looks capable of producing the last run under leading rider Flavien Prat. The gelding’s speed figures continue to rise with each start and with another forward move he can extend his winning streak to three. Stormy Liberal is a course specialist and the likely choice and one to beat. Drawn comfortably outside, the Miller-trained gelding should find himself either on the lead or in a lovely pace-stalking position. Let’s try Fabozzi on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 2-Path of Exile; 3-Tanners Pride; 7-Two Hail Marys; 8-Tony Blackjack

The main contention in this seven furlong maiden special weight affair for 3-year-olds exits the same race on Feb 5 and each has a right to improve dramatically. Path of Exile finished strongly and should love today’s extended trip; Two Hail Marys flashed good speed, held on well, and should be fitter and stronger today, while Tony Blackjack was completely eliminated at the break and would have been a whole lot closer had he simply left with his field. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then toss in the sneaky first-timer Tanners Pride for trainer Brian Koriner, whose debut runners often run better than the work.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Avicii; 6-Kiss at Midnight; 7-Wonderful Lie

We’ll triple the ninth race, a strong allowance/optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Avicii seeks her third straight, has the proper style for this seven furlong distance, retains Prat, and should settle early in mid-pack before producing her strong late kick. Kiss at Midnight shortens up and can be very effective as a late-running sprinter. Her recent form has been a tad disappointing but under today’s conditions the Richard Baltas-trained mare could easily snap back. Wonderful Lie gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Romans, takes a two-level class drop, and should at least hit the board.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Glory and Power; 2-Zaffinah; 4-War Storm

The finale is a maiden turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. The main contention is drawn inside, with Glory and Power deserving of top billing. The Paulo Lobo-trained daughter of Medaglia d’Oro finished like a freight train when dead-heating for second with Zaffinah in a similar spot in early January and if she moves forward today, or even runs the same race, she’ll be hard to deny. Zaffinah also ran quite well in what was her U.S. debut for trainer John Sadler and has every right to improve off that effort. War Storm is an intriguing Tampa Bay Downs invader; the daughter of Warrior’s Reward ran a bit better than the line will show when a closing but distant third in her debut over a route of ground on turf in late December. She’s now in the Cerin barn and gets Lasix and Desormeaux.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, March 4, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: X

Single: 1-Always Dreaming

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Silver Defense; 6-Inheritthewind; 9-Master Merion

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Blind Ambition; 6-Big Dollar Bill; 8-Eastport

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 4-Coasted

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Mr. Jordan; 7-War Story; 8-Greenpointcrusader

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Catch a Glimpse; 8-Celestine

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Olorda; 3-Suffused

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B+

Use: 1-Caviar Czar; 11-Timeline; 13-Fayeq

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Cowboy Culture; 5-Snap Decision; 9-Ticonderoga

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 7-Miss Sky Warrior; 9-Eloquent Riddle; 12-Pretty City Dancer

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Projected; 3-Heart to Heart; 8-Interpol

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Charming Kitten; 6-Mr Maybe; 11-Twilight Eclipse

 

RACE 13: Post: 6:05 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Gunnevera; 8-Irish War Cry

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 4, 2017

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