Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 9, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, March 9, 2017

​​

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade:  C

Use: 2-Pappou; 5-Tiz No Bluff

Tiz No Bluff is as one-paced as they come, but after finishing third in a similar affair in his first start since last summer the Ron Ellis-trained gelding should be able to improve enough to handle this soft affair. Pappou is faster on numbers but as a 15-race maiden he’s hardly one to trust. This is, however, his first race for a tag. In a race that presents little to no value, we’ll use both in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade:  B

Use: 1-Big John B; 6-Prospect Park

Prospect Park hasn’t won since August of 2015 but this may be his best chance yet to get back on the beam. Beaten a head in a strong performance under similar conditions last month, the Cliff-Sise-trained colt should find himself on or near the lead throughout in a race with absolutely no pace. Big John B, away for 11 months, has worked well enough to be fit and ready for trainer Phil D’Amato (solid with comebackers) and may simply out class this field, though his deep closing style figures to put him at a disadvantageous based on the projected race flow. We’ll use both in our rolling exotic while favoring Prospect Park on top.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tiz Sirius; 2-Solar Zone

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a bottom-rung maiden claimer for older horses at the abbreviated sprint trip of five furlongs. Tiz Sirius flashed good early zip before fading in his debut vs. maiden $50,000 company last month; the Bob Baffert-trained colt should stick a whole lot better vs. this bunch and based on his interior fractions he should be able open up rather quickly from the rail. The son of Zenzational seems like the logical top pick but you may want to protect on a ticket or two with Solar Zone, a 12-race maiden but in the money in his last four and likely the most dangerous of the closing types.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-A. P. Zona

A.P. Zona just crushed maiden claimers with a good number and based purely on speed figures looks more than capable of repeating against this $40,000 open claiming group. Drawn comfortably outside and projecting to be the controlling speed, the son of Creative Cause is listed at 2-1 on the morning line but should go lower in a five-runner field. In a race that lacks depth, he’s a rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Hobbits Hero; 5-Rye Patch; 6-Poshky

The fifth race is a better-than-par first-level allowance/optional claimer over a mile on turf with several tough, salty veterans in the overflow field. Hobbits Hero, first off the claim for Jerry Hollendorfer (powerful stats with this angle), has a remarkable record over the Santa Anita turf course, having won half of his 14 career starts. He’s most effective as the controlling speed and if he acquires that type of trip he’ll be tough to run down. A recent sharp half mile move should have him right on edge. Poshky seems the most dangerous of the closing types and should benefit from a contested pace in his first-off-the-claim for Eddie Truman (27% with a flat-bet profit). The son of Vronsky is a pro’s pro and switches to Kent Desormeaux, who’ll have him rolling late. Rye Patch shortens up a furlong and exits a powerful starter’s handicap affair but may have to alter his front-running style in a race with other speed. If the Hard Spun gelding has it in him to stalk and pounce, he can win, but that’s never been his ticket to the winner’s circle.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Over Achiever; 5-Runasaurus Rex

Over Achiever moves up a notch after a runaway win for $10,000 over a wet fast track that probably moved him up. Leading rider Flavien Prat stays aboard for Hollendorfer and should have this gelding in an ideal stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. The son of Einstein has strung good ones together in the past, so we’re not anticipating a “bounce.” Runasaurus Rex looked fairly decent winning an $8,000 event with a career top speed figure last month and is a live item on the two-level raise for new trainer Doug O’Neill (strong 22% with first-off-the-claim plays). With only seven career starts behind him, the five-year-old gelding probably has further improvement in him. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Over Achiever on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Use: 2-Reach the World; 9-Irish Freedom

Baffert holds the aces in this entry-level middle distance main track event for 3-year-olds. Reach the World broke his maiden impressively, has trained in superior fashion since, and looks very much like a stakes-quality colt. If he wins today, he’ll be seen next in a major Derby prep somewhere. Irish Freedom is a highly regarded colt as well, having won his debut last summer at Del Mar in clever fashion. The son of Pioneerof the Nile has a series of solid works for his comeback, and, having won his debut, clearly can run well fresh. We’ll strongly prefer Reach the World on top but we’ll save with a ticket or two in our rolling exotics using Irish Freedom.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Starlite Style; 8-Moonless Sky

The finale is a maiden special weight turf miler for fillies and mares with two main contenders. Starlite Style, second in her last three, is long overdue for a win and could finally earn her diploma today. This will be her second off a layoff so a forward move is possible, and from where she’s drawn the Hector Palma-trained daughter of Unusual Heat should enjoy a ground-saving, mid-pack trip. Moonless Sky is a Florida invader with speed figures that fit. She has good tactical speed, gets Desormeaux, and projects to have every chance from a pace-stalking spot. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, March 9, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Well Blessed; 2-Flashy Val

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: X

Use: 5-Proud Enough

​​​

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-Bull Dozer

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Global Entry; 4-Steel Sky; 7-Tiger Paw

​​

​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Arcature; 3-Unbridled Outlaw

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Madroos; 10-Horner Man

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Smokey; 3-My Friend; 4-Epic Drama

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Showreel; 2-Majestic Maiara; 7-Veil

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Stormin Charlotte; 3-Whipsnade; 5-Rontos Lily

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Diamond Earring

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Six Tonsafun; 4-Scandalskeepcoming; 10-Midnight Tale

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 9, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |