Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for Jan. 2, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Monday, January 2, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Ashley’s Charm; 7-My Pi Romancer

My Pi Romancer and Ashley’s Charm finished two-three, a length apart, in a similar mile turf event for state-bred fillies at Del Mar in November and they figure close again today. ‘Romancer has a bit more experience, having three lifetime starts, but her numbers have dwindled from race to race, whereas ‘Charm was making her debut and very likely will produce a forward move with that effort under her belt. Using that logic, we’ll slightly prefer the Peter Eurton-trained filly on top in a below par race for the level while including both in our rolling exotics.

​​RACE 2: Post 12:59 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-Smarty Party Papa

Smarty Party Papa didn’t run badly in his debut up north vs. straight maidens last fall and shows up in a bottom-rung maiden claimer for his second outing while adding blinkers. He’s a fit on numbers, has plenty of room to improve, and may be something in a nothing race. If he doesn’t win, we have little confidence in knowing who will, so let’s make the Terry Knight-trained gelding a rolling exotic single and straight play and hope to get close to his 3-1 morning line.

RACE 3: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-I’malreadythere

Here’s a single-by-default selection. I’malreadythere shows up in a claimer for the first time (and a weak, restricted one at that), is re-equipped with blinkers, switches to Rafael Bejarano and towers over his modest rivals on speed figures. His work tab seems healthy, so we suspect trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is simply dropping him for a win and if he loses him, he loses him. There’s nothing wrong with his 3-1 on the morning line, but in an empty field, we suspect he’ll go lower.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Starr of Quality; 6-Let Me Flatter You; 10-Bona Fide Image

The fourth race kicks off the Pick-6. Let Me Flatter You had some speed before gradually weakening in her debut in November but has trained nicely since for trainer Richard Baltas and can be expected to improve a bunch with that bit of experience behind her. Bejarano stays aboard and at this one mile distance should have this filly on or near the lead throughout. Bona Fide Image is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but her figures are rising, she’s bred to improve two-turning, and she’s exiting tougher races. Tyler Baze should have her within striking range throughout. Starr of Quality earned a career top figure when rallying from off the pace to be second in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month and a repeat of that effort today should at least land her in the frame. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Let Me Flatter You on top.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

This race has been taken off the turf and now will be run at six and one-half furlongs on the main track.  Our original single/straight play, Tribal Fighter, has been scratched, so this race becomes a “pass” race for us

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

The sixth race is a non-winners of two $12,500 sprint with very little depth. Our projected single/straight play, Big Champion, has been scratched, therefore, we will pass the race.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Well Measured; 6-Maricuate; 8-Jonny’s Choice

The seventh race is an optional/claiming first-level allowance event for state-bred older sprinters. Well Measured can dominate this field if he has one good one left and can avoid trouble from the rail. He’s being risked for $20,000 to be eligible for this race, and on his best day he’s worth considerably more than that, so there has to be a question of the gelding’s current condition. But if he fires, he’ll be tough. Jonny’s Choice was just claimed at Del Mar following a more than nine length demolition of a $10,000 field and is tackling considerably tougher foes today. On numbers, he’s a fit, though this extended sprint distance might be a tad sharp for him. Matriculate is a tad slower on figures than either ‘Measured or ‘Choice but he’s in solid form for Spawr and should at least hit the board. Let’s prefer Well Measured on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Royal Albert Hall; 7-Ward n’ Jerry; 9-Gangster

The featured eighth race is a second-level nine furlong turf event. Royal Albert Hall has been facing much tougher company most of his career and seems good enough to handle this task with a repeat of his race before last, a strong third place effort over this course and distance during the fall meeting. He’s back with Bejarano, who has won with him in the past. Ward ‘n Jerry has really gotten good, reeling off three straight wins, and with another forward move today should be tough once again despite the class hike. Gangster is lightly-raced and fast on numbers; the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Street Boss was impressive beating a lesser allowance field at Del Mar in his first career try on grass and has trained sharply since. In a strong, competitive race, we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Royal Albert Hall on top.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Single: 9-Door’s Open

The nightcap is a lackluster $8,000 claimer with nothing to trust. Door’s Open hits rock bottom in his first start in 11 months so he clearly has big problems, but if he has one good one left he’ll completely outclass this field. We suspect he’ll either win or you won’t be able to find him. Best advice is to pass the race, but rolling exotic player may choose to sink or swim with the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for Jan. 2, 2017

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