Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 14, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, April 14, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Snow Cloud; 4-Wealthy Shipman

Friday’s program begins with a downhill turf sprint for $40,000 claiming fillies and mares. Wealthy Shipman is a first-off-the-claim for Robertino Diodoro ($24% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) and seems sure to improve for her new connections. Both of her races over this course and distance were quite good, earning numbers that make her a major player despite the class hike. She knows how to win races and looks capable of producing the last run. Snow Cloud drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends. She lacks early speed but at this level should be heard from late, so we’ll toss her in as well.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Summertimemischief; 3-Beauty N Balance

The second race is a weak bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares that doesn’t offer much to work with. Summertimemischief seems as good as any following a decent runner-up effort in a similar spot. She’s a 10-race maiden but has hit the board in her last three and may have found a bunch she can handle. Beauty N Balance has been far back in straight maiden company in two starts but could easily come to life at this level. The Bob Baffert-trained filly is a contender by default. We’ll try to get by using just these two but not with any degree of confidence.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Lucky Dolly; 3-Fallout

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a $16,000 claiming abbreviated sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Fallout has numbers that fit and drops for the money run. The Dave Hofmans-trained daughter of Harlan’s Holiday should be on or near the lead throughout and against this group might get very brave. Lucky Dolly earned a career top figure when third in a slightly tougher spot and should be a pace factor once again. At this five and one-half furlong trip she should be able to stick around for most of it. We’ll prefer Fallout on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Enduring Erin; 5-Lunar Empress

Lunar Empress exits a much tougher race – she was a distant third to the razor sharp Skye Diamonds in a highly-rated sprint in her last outing – and today she stretches out to a much more preferable distance while being reunited with the jockey (Arroyo) who won on her three races back. The daughter of Malibu Moon should draft into a comfortable pace-prompting position and have every chance. Enduring Erin returns to the main track and has back form that makes her dangerous. The veteran mare has won over this oval in the past and should projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from her rail post. We’ll give Lunar Empress top billing but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Mandy D; 8-Looking At Thelake

Mandy D was pulled up into the far turn when she slipped badly on a wet spot on the grass course and lost all chance in just her second career start vs. straight maidens last March. She has trained well since, drops into a maiden claimer and deserves another chance while retaining Brice Blanc. The daughter of Cape Blanco seems more than capable of acting at this level. Looking At Thelake is a Florida invader in the Billy Morey barn that is the likely favorite and one to beat. Her form at Gulfstream Park charts quite well in this spot and she’s a first-time Lasix user with three nice workouts since arriving at Santa Anita. Both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play; we’ll put Mandy D on top and press with her on a couple of extra tickets.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-W. Giles; 8-Boy Howdy

W Giles loves this main track and drops to a level that is well within his abilities. The Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding must leave cleanly from the rail, but if he does he’ll be on or near the lead throughout.   Freshened since late February and switching to Rafael Bejarano, the son of Swiss Yodeler should fire a big shot. Boy Howdy earned a huge, career-top figure when an excellent second to Junior Gilliam in a fast, highly-rated race for the level last month and a similar performance today makes him the one to fear most. With just five career starts and from the red-hot Bill Spawr barn, the son of Southern Image certainly has a right to continue his improving pattern. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to W. Giles.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:02 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Candy Boss; 6-Longstocking; 8-Anita Partner

The featured seventh race is first-level allowance downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares. The three that we’ll include in rolling exotic play all exit the same race last month and are very difficult to separate. Anita Partner actually crossed the wire first but was disqualified for interference and placed second, so she returns in the same spot and should have no excuses from her comfortable outside draw. Longstocking, fourth when beaten a length in that common race, may have been a tad short in her first start since early December and could move forward enough to win. Candy Boss, third when beaten just a half-length after leading by two inside the furlong pole, clearly has a chance if she maintains a straight course. Today she switches to Bejarano and should be in the thick of things once again.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:34 PT.  Grade:  C

Use: 5-Atomic Action; 7-Cupid’s Beau; 9-Simply Parkin

The finale is a state-bred maiden $50,000 abbreviated dash that looks fairly wide open and requires a spread. Cupid’s Beau is a tad fastest on speed figures, switches to Bejarano, and may have found a group he can handle in his seventh career start. Atomic Action tries blinkers for the first time and really won’t have to improve much to win. Simply Parkin has worked well enough for his debut to warrant a chance in a soft field, and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in. We’ll use all three but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

 

KEENELAND

Friday, April 14, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Art Imitates Life; 4-Fleetway

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Amigo’s Affair; 4-British Humor; 8-Rarest Quality

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Blaze Star; 3-A Dixie Twister

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Wessex; 5-Giada Vegas; 9-Res Ipsa

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Copus; 6-Aesop; 8-Cause I’m Alex

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Harkness; 9-Moana

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Vagabond Princess; 8-Burma Road; 10-Motown Lady

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Big Red Rocket; 8-Star Hill

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Blacktype; 4-Bolo; 10-Ballagh Rocks

RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Perfect Partner; 4-Borsa Vento; 10-Watch Me Whip

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 14, 2017

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