Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 15, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 15, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-St. Reno

St. Reno is listed at 4/5 in the Saturday opener, so clearly he offers no wagering value. Can we beat him? Probably not, though he just failed at 50 cents on the dollar while having his Beyer speed figure drop from 88 to 65. Use him as a no-value rolling exotic single if you must, but this is a race that is best left alone.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Kenjisstorm; 3-Pee Wee Reese

Pee Wee Reese stretches out for the first time after a superb score down the hill in a recent first-level allowance affair. Nice horse, for sure, but we’re no totally convinced he’ll stay the trip. Kenjisstorm doesn’t win that often (he’s 3-for-24 lifetime) but the Richard Baltas-trained horse should draft into an ideal second flight trip and have every chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this is another race that we’ll tread lightly in.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Basie Boots

Basie Boots drops to her lowest level ever and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, so we’re expecting the Gary Sherlock-trained filly to regain her winning form in a modest race for the level. She should inherit a soft, pace-stalking trip. We’ll use her as a rolling exotic single but at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’ll probably not be attractive in the straight pool.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Kentuckian; 2-Grazen Sky

Kentuckian ran like his old self when winning a second level allowance race despite being forced four-wide throughout while pressing a hot pace. He’s trained well since, draws inside today, and if he breaks quickly he should be on or near the lead throughout. Grazen Sky might be most effective around one turn – he’s perfect in two starts at this six furlong trip – and represents extreme danger from off the pace. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Kentuckian on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-June Sixth; 9-Cut

Maiden claiming 3-year-olds sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, a below average affair with two main contenders. Cut was claimed for $75,000 in his last start and today surfaces for $30,000, not exactly a healthy sign. However, the Eddie Truman-trained colt switches to Rafael Bejarano, lands the good outside draw and looked decent in a recent five furlong drill, so we’ll assume he’s in one piece. On pure numbers he’s a standout. June Sixth flashed some early speed before fading in a very strong straight maiden affair back in February and clearly should enjoy this considerable class relief. He’s worked well since and takes blinkers off, so vast improvement is likely. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving the edge on top to Cut.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Gigantis; 8-Hitters Park

Hitters Park was quite impressive breaking his maiden in a fast, highly-rated affair and projects to win right back with a similar performance in this starter’s allowance sprint. The Peter Miller-trained gelding should enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip from his cozy outside draw. Gigantis is buried on the rail but looked good breaking his maiden last month in his first start since August of 2015 and if he doesn’t regress off that effort he’ll be a factor right back. Both of these contenders have speed figures that are faster than par for the level and either one can win, though preference on top goes to Hitters Park.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Ava Forty Seven; 4-Sweet Dragon Fly; 6-Lucy De

The seventh race is a contentious first-level allowance turf event for fillies and mares and probably requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope to get by. Ava Forty Seven was part of the pace in her recent comeback and stayed around until the furlong pole before fading. Hopefully, this time she’s taken back and allowed to produce one run and if she improves as expected for trainer Phil D’Amato, the daughter of Artie Schiller has a good chance to pull off an upset at 6-1 on the morning line. Sweet Dragon, third in her last pair with rising speed figures, probably has another forward move in her and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Lucy De hasn’t been finishing of late but this return to a flat mile could be highly beneficial to her. With a prior win over the course and back numbers that fit, the daughter of Decarchy is worth including on a few tickets as well.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Sutton Impact; 7-Waldorf; 8-Allaboutmike

Maiden $75,000 claiming 3-year-olds meet at six furlongs in the eighth race, an open affair with several possibilities. Trainer Peter Miller has two, including the first-timer Sutton Impact, who has shown enough in the a.m. to warrant a big look while attracting Bejarano. Allaboutmike is a Florida shipper making his first start since being gelded; the son of Zenzational actually finished first is a maiden claimer on turf at Gulfstream Park in February but was disqualified. His workouts at San Luis Rey Downs look pretty good. Waldorf hails from a stable that doesn’t win often with debut runners but the work tab indicates ability and the Glatt-Gonzalez trainer-jockey team can be lethal. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with Sutton Impact perhaps earning a slight nod on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 3-Moments Notiz; 4-Ankeny Hill; 5-London Legacy

The ninth race is a low-level claiming sprint that finds Ankenny Hill nosediving in class while seeking his first win in a two years and his first (he’s zero-for-nine) over the Santa Anita main track. He once was much better than this, so if the Robertino Diodoro-trained gelding has one good one left he’ll be tough, but that’s a big if. Moments Notiz is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (35% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) and could easily improve, but he, too, has never been terribly fond of the local strip (zero-for-six). However, he’s worked well at San Luis Rey Downs since joining his new outfit and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. London Legacy has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and the Steve Miyadi barn has superior stats with this particular angle (28% with a strong ROI). He’s been first or second in seven of 15 lifetime starts at this track and should at the very least hit the board.

 

​​​​​RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Thermopolis; 7-Insubordination; 9-Watered Down

The finale is state-bred maiden special weight sprint down the Hillside course. Watered Down has done some good work in the a.m. for Mike Machowsky and certainly is bred for turf (Good Journey).   He seems ready for a major effort first crack out of the box and at 6-1 on the morning may offer some real value. Insubordination looked like he was headed for a win in his comeback but hit a wall inside the furlong pole and faded to finish third (beaten six lengths) in a similar event two weeks ago. He should be much fitter today and could improve a bunch despite the short rest. Thermopolis closed with interest to be a nice runner-up in is debut last month and is another likely to improve with experience. The son of Acclamation retains Marty Garcia and with good racing luck should be heard from in the final furlong.

 

 

KEENELAND

Saturday, April 15, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Take Your Gun; 4-Combat Controller

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B

Single: 9-Swift One

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Curlin Kisses; 3-Audacious Angel

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B

Single: 5-Tasteful

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Society Beau; 2-Eastport

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 10-Forge; 11-Vici; 112-Revved Up

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Bird Song

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 7-Lady Aurelia; 10-Pretty Perfection

RACE 9: Post 5:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Senior Investment; 4-No Dozing; 5-Time to Travel

RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Lady Eli

 

RACE 11: Post 6:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sheplaysthefield; 4-Makealittlelove

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 15, 2017

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