Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 21, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, April 21, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-I’malreadythere; 7-County Lineman

The Friday opener is a $25,000 claiming turf miler that we’ve boiled down to two main contenders. I’malreadythere is raised two notches on the class scale by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer in a sign of confidence following a solid with over the main track; he can be just as effective on turf and leading rider Flavien Prat stays aboard. County Lineman beat a tougher field two runs back and today drops for the money run while removing blinkers. The switch to Rafael Bejarano is another positive factor. We’ll give I’malreadythere a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sapodilla; 5-She Rules You

Sapodilla has very little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares, and if she leaves cleanly from the rail she should have no excuses. He speed figures are rising and at this abbreviated trip she should be able to stick it out. She Rules You has trained okay for her debut and hails from a barn that has excellent recent stats with first-time starters. We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Kiss Limit; 7-Hot Paris Night

The Pick-6 begins with a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming middle distance affair with two main contenders. Hot Paris Night just earned a career top number when winning a $12,500 non-winners of two event and seems capable of repeating on the raise with a similar performance. The Hollendorfer-trained gelding retains Prat and should draft into a good second flight, stalking position. Kiss Limit stretches out, returns to the main track, takes a significant class drop and continues to look sharp in the morning. He’s very dangerous at this level with his best effort. Let’s give Hot Paris Night slight preference on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Last One Standing; 7-Where Y’at Joe Joe

Where Y’at Joe Joe returns to his claim level, lands the cozy outside post, removes blinkers, and should bet set for a major forward move in his first start since late February. He’s won over this main track in the past, switches to Tyler Baze, and is long overdue for a win. Sharp recent workouts add fuel to the fire. Last One Standing has been extremely popular at the claiming box – he’s changed barns three straight times – and today finds himself in the Charles Treece shed row. First or second in eight of 18 career starts, the son of A. P. Warrior figures to be in a good pace-pressing position and have every chance. We’ll put Where Y’at Joe Joe on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Klondike Creek; 5-Oscar Dominguez

The fifth race is one of these rare turf marathons that are popular with many players. Klondike Creek is lightly-raced with plenty of room for improvement and we have a strong hunch he’s going to enjoy this mile and one-half journey. Fresh from earning a career top speed figure in a strong 10-furlong affair, the son of Gio Ponti retains Prat and should enjoy a ground-saving trip every step of the way as the projected controlling speed. He may never look back. Oscar Dominguez, a closing second in the same race that Klondike Creek just finished third in, is another that appears well-suited for the trip and is long overdue for a win. Preference goes to Klondike Creek but we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Orion’s Belt; 7-Sagittari

Sagittari has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we like so much and after producing a significant forward move between his first and second start sprinting the son of Astrology should be extra sharp in his first try around two turns for a barn that has superior stats with this angle. He’s certainly bred to improve over a distance of ground and looks to be the one to beat, even though trainer Keith Desormeaux’s brother Kent jumps off to ride the 7/5 morning line favorite Orion’s Belt. The latter has the all-important class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and in his second off a layoff the son of Giant’s Causeway should be fitter and tougher. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press a bit with Sagittari on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:02 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 5-Zuzu’s Petals

Zuzu’s Petals has been changing addresses through the season – she’s actually been claimed in four of her last six starts – and today will go for the Steve Knapp barn, which can boast fairly strong stats with first-off-the-claim runners. The veteran mare retains Rafael Bejarano after being nosed out in a similar event last month; today she gets an extra half-furlong to work with and looks quite capable of producing the last run. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single, though we wouldn’t take much less than her morning line of 2-1.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:34 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Chocolate Coated; 7-Upfront

Upfront is steadily improving and looks ready to earn her diploma in this straight maiden downhill turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies that came up on the soft side. The daughter of War Front retains Prat and with her kind of early speed should have every chance to be on or near the pace throughout. Chocolate Coated, a willing third, beaten less than a length, in her debut over this course and distance last month, has a right to step forward and is the one to fear most despite drawing the disadvantageous rail.   The daughter of Candy Ride looks clearly to be the most dangerous of the closers. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Upfront.

 

 

KEENELAND

Friday, April 21, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Knockout Girl; 5-Sugar Cube

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Our Track; 6-Sail Ahoy

​​​

RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Front Pocket Money; 7-Latent Revenge; 8-Undrafted

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Our Majesty; 6-Unchained Melody

​​

​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Stormin Maclean

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sakonnet; 5-Sentry; 9-Royal Rose

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Blue Azul; 8-Equator

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Most Beautiful; 6-Outsider Art; 10-Lamontagne

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Lady Fog Horn; 5-Unbridled Me

RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Makeamericagreat; 10-On John; 11-Kitten’s Solution

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 21, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |