Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 9, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, April 9, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Rcatcanscat; 6-Irish Dame

The Sunday opener is a $25,000 seven furlong claimer for 3-year-old fillies that appears to have two main contenders. Rcatcanscat is a first-off-the-claim play for Jerry Hollendorfer (29% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) and looks tough on the one-level raise after a game score vs. $20,000 foes last month. Lightly-raced and eligible to continue to improve, the daughter of Discreet Cat has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and retains win-rider Tyler Baze. Irish Dame just broke her maiden at this distance in decent style, retains Flavien Prat, and lands the comfy outside post. She should enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip and have every chance. We’ll prefer Rcatcanscat on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Ipray

Ipray has little to beat in the second race, a $10,000 claiming middle distance affair for fillies and mares and could easily provide Hollendorfer with a sweep of the early daily double. In the frame in nine of 11 career starts over the Santa Anita main track and switching to Prat, the veteran prefers patient handling and seems quite capable of producing the last run. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’ll probably not offer much in the way of wagering value but we can still use her as a rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-We Go Now; 2-Who Cares; 7-Blabimir

Blabimir has failed to make the course in his last pair but continues to sizzle in the morning and looks likely to regain his winning form with this severe drop in class. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding should be too quick for these, and from his preferred outside post the son of Tapizar projects to control this race from start to finish. We Go Now isn’t fast on numbers but is genuine and consistent and deserves a bit of consideration, as does Who Cares, a route-to-sprint class dropper and likely to be doing his best work from off the pace.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Single: 1-Nextdoorneighbor

Old pro Nextdoorneighbor exits a pair of much tougher starter’s allowance races and should outclass this modest $10,000 claiming field. This extended sprint distance will allow the Steve Knapp-trained nine-year-old to steadily move within range from his inside post without having to be rushed off his feet. He’ll be looking for his 10th career win over the Santa Anita main track and barring something unforeseen should get it at what likely will be a shorter price than his morning line of 2-1. We can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Bona Fide Image; 8-My Mel Mar

The fifth race is a soft maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. Bona Fide Image was nosed out in a similar affair last month while more than four clear of the rest and this Bill Spawr-trained filly won’t have much trouble handling this task with a repeat of that effort. The barn’s go-to rider Martin Pedroza stays aboard. My Mel Mar is a comebacker in the Peter Miller barn with a moderate work tab but this stable’s stats with layoff runners is borderline remarkable (25% with a massive flat-bet profit), so we’ll toss her in as well.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Haveiture Way; 8-Rocketann

We’ll double the sixth race, an abbreviated sprint for maiden special weight fillies and mares. Haveiture Way must overcome the rail but the daughter of Lucky Pulpit flashed good zip in her debut before weakening late and should be fitter and tougher today with that effort under her belt. This barn is solid with second-timers and she gets a pivotal rider switch to Baze. Rocketann, a closing third in a similar straight maiden event last month, is another with a license to improve and could be a late factor. We’ll prefer Haveiture Way on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Sweet Charity

Sweet Charity exits a much tougher graded stakes race and this return to the second-level allowance ranks should allow the French-bred filly to earn her first North American victory. In the money in all three local starts and with a decided edge in speed figures, the John Sadler-trained filly switches to Rafael Bejarano (who was aboard in her workout last week) and should be able to produce the last run. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 2-Adrosa Sky

Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming older horses meet at five and one-half furlongs in the eighth race. Adrosa Sky drops to his lowest level ever, shortens in trip and returns to the main track, so we’re expecting the Sky Mesas gelding to regain his winning form in a very soft spot. We’ll use him a rolling exotic single and straight play at anywhere near his 5/2 morning line.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Selcourt; 6-Life’s Blessings; 7-Chalon

The featured ninth race is the Santa Paula Stakes, six-and-one-half furlong main track dash for sophomore fillies. Chalon returns for the Miller barn (superior stats with comebackers) and in her only career start she managed to outrun the brilliant Unique Bella in a maiden dash for juveniles fillies last June. The works at San Luis Rey Downs look good enough and the outside post should allow the daughter of Dialed In to pick her spot. Selcourt crushed a maiden field in her debut in mid-February and has trained smartly in the interim. She appears to have extreme potential. Life’s Blessings missed as the favorite in her last start following a sharp maiden debut score. She fast on numbers and could easily make amends from off the pace today if a pace duel materializes. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Chalon.

 

​​​​​RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-My Audubon; 4-Goseecal; 8-Red Shelby

The finale is a fairly contentious maiden special weight turf miler for fillies and mares. My Audubon was a given race in her debut and should be fitter and tougher today, especially with today’s shorter trip. She switches to Stewart Elliott, adds Lasix and goes for an outfit that hits at 21% with second time starters. She’s 15-1 on the morning line and we suspect she’s considerably better than that. Goseecal is an eight-race maiden and may not be one to trust, but she’s a solid fit on numbers and really won’t have to improve much to win. Red Shelby closed a gap after a slow start in her debut down the Hillside course and should produce a forward move today with that effort behind her. The Miller barn does well with second-timers and this daughter of Greatness projects to be much closer to the early pace today.

 

KEENELAND

Sunday, April 9, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Shackin Up

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Our Girl Abby; 10-Paris Cruise; 11-Happy Like a Foot

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Lady Fog Horn

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Im the Captain Now; 4-Yoshida

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-War Eagle’s Return; 8-Fourth of July

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Hurricane Force; 9-Swift One

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Pleuven; 6-Divisidero; 10-Take a Stand

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-My Miss Chiff; 4-Treble

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Brooklyn Bobby; 3-Morocco; 6-Arklow

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Kee) for April 9, 2017

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