Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Pim, Bel) for May 19, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, May 19, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sheeza Milky Way; 5-Bellamentary

The Friday opener drew just five entrants for a third-level allowance event over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. Bellamentary, away since October but training like she’s fit and ready, gains Flavien Prat (who jumps off Sheeza Milky Way to ride her) and clearly is the class of the field, though she’s unproven on grass, and not really bred for it. The barn has good stats with layoff runners, so we’re anticipating that the daughter of Bellamy Road is fit and ready. Sheeza Milky Way has solid form over this course and distance and can be relied on to fire another good shot. Fresh from a nice score against a slightly softer group, the daughter of Sidney’s Candy looks very much like the most dangerous of the closers. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-My Heart Is Yours; 7-Online Request

The second race is a bottom-rung maiden claiming main track mile affair for fillies and mares and, predictably, has very little depth. My Heart Is Yours may have enough speed to establish the running and in her second race off a layoff the Steve Miyadi-trained daughter of Kafwain could get brave if she can clear without pressure. And, with just two career starts, she has room for improvement that the others really don’t have. Online Request isn’t fast on speed figures (nobody is in this race) but a repeat of her race before last put her right there. This is her lowest level ever, so she’s a major player by default.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Senator Robert; 5-Calvert Street; 7-A New Trend

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a state-bred entry-level allowance turf sprint. A New Trend had a decent run when third over this course and distance two runs back and earned a number that makes him a strong contender in this open affair. The son of Vronsky looks like the quickest of the quick and could easily make the running and never look back. Calvert Street is a razor sharp Phoenix invader seeking his fourth straight score. On pure speed figures he’s a solid fit at this level and clearly is vastly improved after showing little on this circuit last year. Senator Robert removes blinkers (love that angle) while remaining protected by trainer John Brocklebank, who claimed this son of Sierra Sunset for $12,500 in early March. Fourth under these conditions when earning a career top speed figure in his most recent start, the gelding should have every chance from a stalking position. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring A New Trend on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Outa Here; 4-Scavenger Hunt; 6-Quiet No More

The fourth race is a maiden claimer for sophomore fillies. It’s a race we’ll pass other than to spread in rolling exotic play. Outa Here returns to her claim level after failing to threaten in a straight maiden turf event at Golden Gate Fields last month. A repeat of her race before last, or even her third race back, likely would win this race and thus she’s clearly the one to beat. Scavenger Hunt stretches out for the first time and her kind of early zip seems likely to land her on the front end. She’s suspect on pedigree to improve two-turning but if she’s every going to get the trip it will be her first time trying it. Quiet No More is a one-paced grinder, but if the speed falls apart – and it could – she might be able to produce the last run. Rafael Bejarano got to know her last time out and stays aboard.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Incredible Luck

Incredible Luck is a seven-race maiden and just finished second as the favorite in a similar state-bred maiden special weight turf event, but we’ll give him a chance to make amends in a below par field for the level. The son of Recap should enjoy this shortening of trip from nine furlongs to a flat mile, and in a race without too much speed he should enjoy a soft pace-prompting trip. In a field in which nothing else excites, let’s make this Dan Hendricks-trained colt a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Whiskey Ginger; 7-Glorious Crown; 8-Quality Line

The sixth race is a difficult high-priced maiden claimer. Whiskey Ginger put in a Silky Sullivan-type effort in his debut in a similar spot, falling far back after a very slow start (chart says 17 lengths but it was much more than that) before storming home to wind up a distant third. He’ll have to leave with his field today to have any kind of chance; we’ll assume he’ll break better and not give himself too much to do this time. Glorious Crown is a first-timer for the Hess-Desormeaux team with an okay series of workouts; the barn does well with debut runners, who often run better than they work, so you have to include this son of Crown of Thorns. Quality Line is an eight-race maiden but earned by far his best speed figure when runner-up in a slightly softer affair in his comeback, and will be tough if he doesn’t regress. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but there are question marks with each, so tread lightly.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Single: 8-Stately Command

Stately Command upset (at 12-1) a similar bottom-rung claiming field two races back and then was outrun when moved up to the $8,000 level last time out. She’s won six of 18 lifetime for low profile connections and seems as good as any in a race that probably belongs at Los Alamitos. We’ll use her as a single, but, truthfully, nothing would surprise us in a $6,250 claimer that might be best left alone.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Dissension; 6-Wealthy Shipman; 7-Handfull

The finale is a grass grab bag miler for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Old timer Dissension makes her 51st career start while dropping a notch in her second outing since being claimed by Peter Miller and makes a positive jockey switch to Rafael Bejarano. She’s won 11 races during her career but is only 1-for-11 since the beginning of 2016 and she’s winless in seven starts at this distance. Wealthy Shipman was a voided claim (for $40,000) in her last start so she remains in the Robertino Diodoro stable after finishing a strong second in an hillside turf sprint as the favorite last month. Like Dissension, she’s yet to win at this exact distance (she’s zero-for-five) though she does have several middle distance victories on her resume. Can she win? Sure, but she’s not one to trust. Handfull is often tough to catch when she can clear without pressure; she paid the price with a hot opening quarter and half in her last start and understandably faded but could easily stick around a long time today with a less early heat. She switches to Corey Nakatani and there’s no panicky class drop from trainer Richard Baltas, so we suspect she’s doing well. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Handfull.

 

 

PIMLICO

Friday, May 19, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Summer House; 3-Everlasting Secret; 5-Zippity Zoom

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:01 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Delphinia; 5-Catching Fireflies

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RACE 3: Post 12:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Borino; 7-Indian Paint

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:03 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Private Client; 4-Lottie; 9-Notapradaprice

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​RACE 5: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Mo’ Green; 4-Terra Promessa; 6-Carrumba

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Gone Away; 7-Family Meeting

​​RACE 7: Post 2:39 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Dolphus; 6-Shaman Ghost

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Victory to Victory; 5-Compelled

RACE 9: Post 3:44 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Our Majesty; 7-Bode’s Dream; 8-Nonna Bella

RACE 10: Post: 4:16 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Pay Any Price; 10-Richard’s Boy

 

RACE 11: Post 4:50 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Shimmering Aspen; 7-Moana

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​​​RACE 12: Post 5:22 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Lady Allegra; 12-I’m So Munny

RACE 13: Post 5:54 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Chanteline; 9-Clipthecouponannie

RACE 14: Post: 6:28 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 11-Fuerza; 14-West Coast Bias

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, May 19, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Quai Voltaire; 5-O Captainmycaptain

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Single: 5-Preziosa

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Insta Erma; 5-Ava’s Kitten

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Frost Wise; 4-Summer Sweet

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B

Single: 8-Double Dose

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Borsa Vento; 2-Zap Zap Zap

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-She’s Stunning; 4-Clairvoyant Lady; 5-Divine Miss Grey

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Guilty Twelve; 4-Chicadoro; 5-Puca

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Peppermint Zip; 5-Heated Verdict; 6-Tu Exageres

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Pim, Bel) for May 19, 2017

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