Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Pim, Bel) for May 20, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, May 20, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-What a View; 2-Smokey Image; 3-Pee Wee Reese

The Saturday opener is the five-runner Crystal Water Stakes over a mile on turf restricted to Cal-breds. What a View and Pee Wee Reese are committed front-runners who will likely hook up sometime during the running and it’s conceivable that one will kill off the other, or they might kill each other off and set things up for the stalking Smokey Image. The latter was a bit rusty in his comeback sprint but has trained very well since, switches to Flavien Prat, and should produce a significant forward move. He is, however, unproven on grass. Since there really doesn’t appear to be much value in the short field, we’ll simply sit it out while using all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 12:40 PT. Grade: B

Single: 7-Moonlight Praise

Moonlight Praise flashed good speed before weakening late in his debut a couple of weeks ago but is wheeled back quickly by trainer John Brocklebank and can be expected to improve with that experience behind him. The son of Acclamation exits a pretty quick race and appears to be facing an easier group of juveniles populated by first-time starters that really don’t inspire. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Gentrified; 3-The All Button; 6-Night’s Watch

Night’s Watch has improving speed figures, a good runner-up effort in a similar spot last month over this track and distance, and not a whole lot to beat in this six-runner starter optional claimer. The Leonard Powell-trained gelding should enjoy a soft pace-pressing trip and have ever chance to exert his superiority when it counts. The All Button stretches out again after failing to land a blow in a downhill turf sprint in late March. A repeat of his race before last – a game starter’s allowance win – puts him right there. Gentrified, first off the claim for Vladimir Cerin and gelded since his maiden claiming win in mid-March, returns protected and sports a healthy recent work tab. He could easily produce a significant forward move for his new connections. Let’s put Night’s Watch slightly on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:49 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-I’ll Be Around; 5-Munny Spent; 8-Zanab

We’ll spread the fourth race, a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Munny Spent isn’t fast on speed figures but drops to her lowest level ever and has the kind of early speed that makes her dangerous in a soft race. The Jeff Mullins-trained daughter of Munnings has speed figures that are slowly but surely rising and if she continues her improving pattern she could be tough to catch. Zanab is another class dropper that may have found her proper level today. The Matt Chew-trained mare is just one-for-21 lifetime but often gets a share and from her cozy outside post should have every opportunity to at least hit the board. I’ll Be Around, a way since last August, was last seen competing in stakes but today shows up on the bottom. Clearly, she has problems but really doesn’t have much to beat and probably should be tossed in somewhere.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: A-

Single: 4-Heavenly Thought

Heavenly Thought tipped her hand when finishing an excellent third vs. the boys in her debut while giving every indication that she’ll improve with distance and experience. Today she gets an extra furlong to work with while facing fillies and mares and should be along in plenty of time with Flavien Prat staying board for Neil Drysdale. Let’s make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:51 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Zachian; 6-Rockin My Mojo; 7-Red Carpet Cat

The sixth race is a fairly wide open bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint. Zachian produced a forward move in his second career start, finishing a distant second in a strong race for the level, and if he can move forward again the Jack Carava-trained gelding could find himself in the winner’s circle. He’ll have to leave cleanly from the rail to avoid trouble but with good racing luck he should be hard to beat. Rockin My Mojo flashed speed before weakening in his debut just about a year ago and then disappeared. He returns for trainer Blake Heap with okay work tab including a fast recent five furlong drill in 59 2/5 seconds, and could easily be a better type this time around. Red Carpet Cat gets a substantial break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and has displayed enough early speed in his five race career to warrant at look at this shortened trip. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Zachian on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:20 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-It’s the Ice; 9-Klondike Creek; 10-French Getaway

The seventh race is a first-level allowance grass grab bag over 10-furlong that has many possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to get by. It’s The Ice is a progressive gelding coming off a strong runner-up effort with a career top speed figure in a similar affair over a mile and should appreciate this increase in trip. The Phil D’Amato-trained import remains a non-winner in the U.S. but may finally be getting acclimated. Klondike Creek and French Getaway, second and third, respectively, in a 12-furlong marathon last month, shorten up a furlong today and both must be considered major contenders despite their extreme outside draws. Both are relatively lightly-raced and eligible to improve. Let’s give a very slight edge on top to It’s the Ice – he’s definitely a gate-to-wire threat – and have an extra ticket or two keying him on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:20 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-West Coast

West Coast just missed in the Lexington S.-G3 at Keeneland is just his third career start and today returns to first level allowance competition for easy pickings. The Bob Baffert-trained colt continues to impress in the morning, is strong in the speed figure department, and looks like a no-value free bingo space for rolling exotic players.

 

 RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Ransom the Moon; 7-Lord Simba; 8-Eastwood

The Kona Gold Stakes is carded as the ninth race; it’s a strong sprint stakes that should boil down to three major contenders. Lord Simba continued his rapidly rising form with a powerful score in the Los Angeles S.-G3 with a triple-digit Beyer speed figure in just his fifth lifetime start while giving every indication that better is on the way. Today’s extra half-furlong shouldn’t bother him in the least. Eastwood, a strong runner-up to Lord Simba in his first outing since the summer of 2015, projects to benefit greatly from the outside draw and should inherit a good stalking position. With a forward move, he’s right there. Ransom the Moon demolished a conditioned allowance field with a powerful fig in his first California appearance for new trainer D’Amato and clearly is a much better type now than what he was during his Canadian racing days. Prat will have him doing his best work from off the pace. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Lord Simba.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-For the Hustle; 3-Tony Blackjack

Older state-bred straight maidens sprint five and one-half furlongs in the 10th race. For the Hustle is an interesting first-time starter from the Bruce Headley barn. The work tab looks healthy for a stable that has strong stats with debut runners, and with go-to rider Tiago Pereira taking the call this son of Cyclotron looks very much like a live item. Tony Blackjack seems the best of the known element; the son of Grazen returns to a sprint, has figures that fit and after finishing second in his last two outings really won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while going with the fresh face, For the Hustle, on top.

 

RACE 11: Post 6:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Freddies Dream; 11-Atomic Rule

 The nightcap is a $32,000 claiming miler on grass. Big class dropper Atomic Rule must leave from the far outside but if he has one good one left he’ll handle this task. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding, first or second in four of his last five starts vs. much tougher company, has been away since February and the work tab looks a bit sketchy so we’ll use him but certainly not single him. Freddies Dream, first off the claim for Peter Miller (a powerful 33% with a flat-bet profit with this angle), switches to Bejarano and looks like the most dangerous of the late-runners. He’s won over this course in the past and sports a bullet blowout at San Luis Rey Downs just a few days ago.

 

 

PIMLICO

Saturday, May 20, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 10:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Spring Quality; 6-Kaitan

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​​RACE 2: Post 11:05 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Grey Fox; 10-Best Yes

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RACE 3: Post 11:41 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Seeing’n’believing; 8-Flight Pattern

​​​RACE 4: Post: 12:16 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Super Dude; 3-Jamminwithbrandon; 5-Dharmaster

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​RACE 5: Post 12:51 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Animal Appeal

​​​RACE 6: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Jose Sea View; 6-Here’s Johnny; 10-North Ocean

​​RACE 7: Post 2:07 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Proforma; 7-Recruiting Ready

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​​​RACE 8: Post 2:47 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Mo Maverick; 4-Dover Cliffs

RACE 9: Post 3:27 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-A. P. Indian; 5-Whitmore

RACE 10: Post: 4:07 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-On Leave; 7-Elysea’s World

 

RACE 11: Post 4:43 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Honor the Fleet; 2-Hedge Fund; 6-Watch Me Whip

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​​​RACE 12: Post 5:39 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-World Approval; 4-Projected; 7-Blacktype

RACE 13: Post 6:48 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 4-Always Dreaming

RACE 14: Post: 7:35 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Dukin’ With Dale; 7-Minor Legend; 9-Hunger

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Saturday, May 20, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:40 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Pimm’s Cup; 5-The Brown Bomber; 8-Act Surprised

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Fielding Gold; 4-Augie’s Coming

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RACE 3: Post 1:51 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Fire Away; 6-Highland Sky

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:28 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Wildcat Belle

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​RACE 5: Post 3:06 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Broken Border; 7-Lady Bergen

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:43 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Swift One

​​RACE 7: Post 4:17 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Lady Alexandra; 5-Morticia; 6-Con Te Partiro

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:58 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Aktabantay; 5-Ima Wildcat; 9-Small Fortune

RACE 9: Post 5:33 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Dream a Little

RACE 10: Post: 6:07 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Empty House; 7-I’ddrinktoanything

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Pim, Bel) for May 20, 2017

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