Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Sar, Dmr) for Sept. 1, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Friday, September 1, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Remesses; 3-Big Day Tomorrow; 5-Roosevelt

Forecast: Forecast – The opener is a two-turn maiden claimer that looks challenging, so we’ll use three but without any great conviction.  Big Day Tomorrow exits a bottom-rung maiden claimer but is lightly raced and improving, and despite the class hike is a fit on speed figures.  He’s also shown the ability to pass horses and in a race that should have a strong pace the son of Big Brown might be able to produce the last run.  Remesses stretches out for the first time for Baffert (25% with this angle) and has a progressive pattern.  He might be the controlling speed if they send him.  Roosevelt shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends, though he’s never been one to trust.  His best chance is to get loose on the lead, but the lead might be taken.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Mis Viola; 4-Midnight Summer

Forecast: Mis Viola was a sharp maiden claiming winner last month in a race that has since proven to be productive and is protected in this starter/optional claimer by her new connections in her first start back.  The speed figure she earned in that race makes her a strong fit at this level and there’s every expectation that she’ll continue to improve with experience.  After breaking her maiden at first asking in a high-priced claimer, Midnight Summer was out of her element when overmatched in the Sorrento Stakes-G2 but she isn’t today.  The Miller-trained daughter of Midnight Lute shows a nice recent workout at San Luis Rey Downs to have her on edge and may prove to be the speed of the speed.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Shaky Alibi; 4-Member State; 8-Pure Pursuit

Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a maiden turf sprint for older horses.  Let’s zero in on a couple of newcomers.  Shaky Alibi has done everything like a good colt in the morning for Gaines and appears to have the ability to win at first asking even at this abbreviated five furlong trip.  It’s been a slow year for this stable but this Maryland-bred son of Medalist could help turn things around.  Pure Pursuit has been burning up the track at Los Alamitos for Sadler and seems certain to get plenty of support.  The barn usually sends them fit and ready and this gelded son of Stormy Atlantic is bred for intense speed on both sides of his pedigree.  Member State is the best of the known element, is turning back to a sprint and is adding blinkers.  He’s probably worth tossing in somewhere as well.

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RACE 4: Post: 5:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  4-Bellerin; 9-Way Gone; 11-Mister Mojo

Forecast: This looks like an unusually strong race for older maidens. Mister Mojo has trained like a quick gelding for Mullins and appears fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box.  Another live first timer is Bellerin certain to receive plenty of action after impressing in the morning.  This could be a good day for the Gaines barn, which also sends out the promising Shaky Alibi the previous race.  Way Gone flashed speed before weakening late in his debut here last month and should be stronger today for a barn that has superior stats with second-timers.

 

RACE 5: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Reiki Baby; 9-Spooky Woods

Forecast: Reiki Baby couldn’t quite get the trip when worn down late in her first try around two turns last month but on this surface she might be able to carry her speed the required journey.  The Kitchingman-trained filly looks quick enough to gain a favorable position and since she clearly doesn’t need the lead to win Gonzalez can play it by ear.  Spooky Woods is drawn a bit farther outside than preferred and she had no visible excuse when third as the favorite vs. similar over this course and distance in her last start, but on pure numbers she’s a strong contender and Prat stays aboard, so we’ll give her a chance to make amends.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Halo Ahead; 6-Tangeline

Forecast: Halo Ahead was nailed close home when runner-up in a similar state-bred filly and mare maiden event over this course and distance last month and not much improvement will be needed to handle this task.  She lands the good rail, retains, Bejarano, and should have no excuses.  Tangeline was a bit green in her debut in the same race Halo Ahead exits. We suspect she’ll improve considerably with that effort under her belt and is worth using.

 

RACE 7: Post 6:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Continental Divide; 7-Smokem; 9-Unpossible

Forecast: Continental Divide and Smokem finished one-two in the Graduation Stakes here last month and both should appreciate today’s extra half furlong in this state-bred sprint for juveniles.  Both are bred to improve as the distances increase, so there’s no reason to think today’s result will be much difference, though Smokem probably lost his best chance when breaking slowly and could easily turn the tables on his main rival.  Long shot players might consider on a ticket or two the Bay Area invader Unpossible, a progressive colt fresh from a runaway maiden win at Santa Rosa.  He’s another who should continue to improve with experience and could be a late factor.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 7:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Atomic Rule; 8-Guggenheim; 11-Buymeabond

Forecast: Atomic Rule just missed in a four-horse photo over this course in an open $25,000 claimer and is major player with a similar effort today.  He has 10 career wins on his resume and has scored over the local lawn in the past.  Buymeabond is winless in eight starts this year so he meet’s the conditions and his recent efforts indicate he’s really not far off from his good form.  We like the blinkers off angle and the switch to Nakatani.  Guggenheim goes for a barn that has good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle and has recent form that makes him a threat, so we’ll include him as well.

 

 

SARATOGA

Friday, September 1, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Enduring Honor; 5-Augie’s Coming;

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Brattata

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade:

Use: 4-Italian Syndicate; 5-Valhalla; 6-Buddy Anthony

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Tug of War; 2-Draxhall Woods; 4-All About Ashley

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Divine Interventio

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1a-Vasiliki; 6-Desert Duchess; 9-Madame Uno

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Saratoga Giro; 8-Whatstotalkabout; 11-D’funnything

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Zap Zap Zap; 4-Tommy T; 5-I Can Do Anything

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Munchkin Money; 10-Amazing Anne; 11-Lem Me Dance

 

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Dowse’s Beach; 6-Big Rock; 9-Undrafted

RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET.  Grade: X

Use: 5-Jegos Fire; 9-Follow the Signs

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Sar, Dmr) for Sept. 1, 2017

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