Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis Feb. 26, 2016

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: C+
Use: 3-Spirit World; 4-Dirt in Your Face
The Friday opener looks chalky as #3 Spirit World and #4 Dirt in Your Face, two-three finishers in a similar maiden $20,000 claiming miler last month, meet again under identical conditions. Dirt in Your Face was 50 cents on the dollar in that race but wound up a disappointing third after a troubled trip; perhaps today with a clear break and a ground-saving journey the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding can make amends. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics in a race that we otherwise will not get involved in.

SECOND RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 2-Neversaynever; 3-Privileged One; 4-Avicii
The second race is a $25,000 claiming sprint at seven furlongs for older fillies and mares with three logical contenders. #3 Privileged One is solid in the speed figure department and was second in a similar event here last month; the daughter of Wildcat Heir has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and should be within striking range throughout. #2 Neversaynever, first off the claim for David Jacobson, is a sharp Bay Area invader and lands Bejarano; she also has the route-to-sprint angle working for her and figures to be running on late. #4 Avicii, away since Del Mar but training nicely at San Luis Rey Downs for her comeback, could fire a big shot fresh and should be a pace factor throughout. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.

THIRD RACE (2:01 PT) – GRADE: C+
Use: 5-Midnight Lady; 7-Bayonet
The Pick-6 begins in the third race, a bottom-rung claiming miler for older distaffers and seems like a logical spot for #7 Bayonet to continue her winning ways. She’s crossed the wire first in each of her last four outings (was disqualified four runs back) and at this level – assuming she has one good one left in her – the Peter Eurton-trained filly should settle in mid-pack and then have every chance to wear down the speed. We’ll also use #5 Midnight Lady, a clever gate-to-wire winner over this track and distance at this level last month. However, there’s other speed drawn inside and she may be forced to stalk and pounce, a style that she doesn’t often successfully employ. There’s really not a whole lot of value to be found in this seven runner event, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.

FOURTH RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: B+
Single: 6-Cool Green
Older maidens meet over a mile on turf in the fourth race. #6 Cool Green removes blinkers, returns to turf, and beats this field with a repeat of his race before last. The son of Global Hunter continues to look sharp in the morning for Doug O’Neill, switches to Desormeaux and offers value at or near his morning line of 7/2 if you can get it. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

FIFTH RACE (3:05 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 1-Amazing Lady; 3-Redeeming Quality; 6-Lil Jessica
The fifth race is a maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for state-bred fillies and mares; it’s a weak affair with not a whole lot to work with. #1 Amazing Lady flashed big speed before fading in her debut vs. much tougher straight maidens; she’s worked well since that race and this drop into the maiden claiming ranks should make a world of difference. #3 Redeeming Quality is a first-timer from the clever Steve Miyadi barn with okay drills from a barn that rarely allows its maidens to show much speed in the morning. The daughter of Ministers Wild Cat should be plenty fit and ready to show her stuff. #6 Lil Jessica was a solid runner-up in her debut last month in an admirable performance from the rail. Better drawn today and from a stable that has excellent stats with second-time starters, this Stormin Fever filly is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Amazing Lady on top.

SIXTH RACE (3:35 PT) – GRADE: B-
Use: 3-Trust Your Caddy; 4-Ain’t Misbehavin; 5-Howdy
The sixth race is a middle distance main track entry-level main allowance race that may require a bit of a spread. #3 Trust Your Caddy is an intriguing Northern California invader from the Jedd Josephson barn; the son of Twirling Candy had a nightmarish trip when a close fifth as the favorite last time out and sports a rather impressive series of workouts since that mid-January event to indicate improvement in likely. At 6-1 on the morning line, he offers legitimate value. #5 Howdy, the 8/5 morning line favorite, surely will attract plenty of support. The Peter Eurton-trained colt, second as the favorite in a fairly strong race for the level in early January, shows a steady, healthy work tab since that race and seems likely to fire his best shot today. #4 Ain’t Misbehavin loves this main track, is a fit on numbers and may be the most dangerous of the closers. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotic play.

SEVENTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: B
Use: 8-St. Joe Bay; 10-Hot Market
The featured seventh race, an entry-level downhill turf sprint for older horses, we’ll look to the outside with #8 St. Joe Bay and #10 Hot Market as the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics. St. Joe Bay is unproven on turf but ran huge when narrowly missing at this level in a main track sprint last month in his first start off a long layoff. If the Peter Miller-trained colt can build on that race today – and if he handles the tricky course – he’ll be a major player most likely from a second flight, stalking position. Hot Market has been away since April of last year but his Golden Gate Fields work tab is noteworthy and should have him fit and ready for a big effort off the bench. With proven winning form over this course and distance and the presence of Prat in the saddle, this deep closing son of Singletary may be the one to beat.

EIGHTH RACE (4:35 PT) – GRADE: C+
Use: 2-Jazzy J H; 5-Watch Me Now; 9-Herunbridledpower
The nightcap is another maiden claimer, this one for $50,000 older fillies and mares, and looks ripe to be won by a newcomer. #5 Watch Me Now fits the bill. The works look pretty good for the Desormeaux brothers and a little certainly will go a long way against this group. #2 Jazzy J H shows up in a claimer for the first time; she’s displayed good speed in straight maiden company and figures to stick much better in this spot. #9 Herunbridledpower, second in both of her starts to date, isn’t fast on speed figures but nobody else is, either. She’s drawn comfortably outside and should have every chance either on the lead or from a stalking position.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis Feb. 26, 2016

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