XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Pick 5 for December 10th, 2016 at Gulfstream Park

Below is the early Pick 5 ticket for December 10th, 2016 at Gulfstream Park. As always, the ticket is $20 or less.

*Update* rain unfortunately washed off the turf races, but analysis for the dirt races in the sequence still applies.

Race 1:

Jermyn Street (#9, 3-1) leads off an interesting card of two-year-old racing at Gulfstream Park. She powered home to victory when switching to turf and shedding the shades for Wesley Ward last time. That victory against males in the straight maiden ranks makes this filly very tough facing a group that primarily just broke maiden against cheaper competition.

Ventina (#3, 5-1) has an advantage that the top choice does not. She has already faced winners and ran a strong second when doing so. Ventina improved by 22 points on the beyer scale in her second start and a similar move forward would be enough to win the opener.

Race 2 : 

Brahms Cat (#5, 20-1) is an intriguing pace play in this race. She is stepping way up in class after winning a state-bred maiden race, but has shown the ability to pass horses in a race filled with need-the-lead types. She has improved in every start and is worth inclusion at 20-1. If this race falls apart as two-year-old races often do, then this filly can pull the shocker.

Yes I’ll Go (#1, 7-5) is the horse to beat off of her romping debut win. She could be a future star, but this filly will start at very low odds and draws a tough assignment. She faces winners for the first time while drawing the rail in a race full of speed. She may be the speed of the speed and she will have to run her opponents off their feet early to win.

La Vie Ross (#8, 6-1) pressed the pace before drawing off to win her debut impressively. She will likely be taken back early in this race and draws well for a trainer who is 4 for his last 8 with two-year-old runners. Like Brahms Cat, she does not need the lead to win and should be picking up the pieces late.

Race 3:

My Lerler (#4, 4-1) made a strong middle move in her first stakes try and adds blinkers for her route debut. Her trainer is clicking at 43% when stretching out from a sprint. She did much more running than Lirica in a common race, yet is double the odds on the morning line.

Phone Chick (#2, 3-1) was very visually impressive when breaking her maiden at Keeneland. She gives away experience, but has the most upside in the field and is bred to handle the added distance in the Hut Hut.

 Race 4:

Snap Decision (#7, 5-1) is a half brother to Grade 1 winner Mr. Speaker. He was asked to go a mile and a sixteenth at Belmont Park first-time out from the twelve post. He handled the near impossible task very well by running a respectable fifth and should build on that performance in his second start. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, is 25 % with horses making their second career start.

Zorzor (#1, 4-1) has been knocking on the door for a victory and draws a cozy inside post after a wide journey last time. He has improved in every start and makes plenty of sense in this spot. He defeated Snap Decision on October 29th in a race that may turn out to be very live.

Slaimy (#6, 3-1) makes his first start for the always dangerous Todd Pletcher barn. This expensive purchase catches an average field and lures the services of John Velazquez. Pletcher should always be respected with first-time starters, but he is surprisingly only 5% routing on debut.

 Race 5:

Satire (#6, 2-1) takes a big drop in class from a state-bred maiden special weight to maiden claiming $12,500. She still has upside after only running twice and catches an extremely weak field. She should take this group wire-to-wire after chasing very fast fractions last time. This filly looks like a strong bet to close out the Pick 5 as a single.

$0.50 Pick 5 Ticket:  3,9 / 1,5,8 / 2,4 / 1,6,7 / 6 = $18

-Padraic Manocchio

@PManocchio4

XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Pick 5 for December 10th, 2016 at Gulfstream Park