The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is one of the most wide-open Breeders’ Cup races over the two days. Below is my analysis and betting strategies for the Grade 1 race which figures to be dominated on top by European invaders.
1. Albigna (#9, 9-2) Not only does she have arguably the most class in the field, but she possesses something her European counterparts do not; a win going a mile. That win came over soft ground, but her maiden score over Tango on firm going shows she can handle anything. Look for her to unleash a huge kick and run everyone down late.
2. Shadn (#3, 10-1) She looked like a filly who will improve with longer distances in her Group 2 win against males in France. She has steadily improved throughout the year and should make noise at a juicy price.
3. Daahyeh (#5, 5-1) This filly brings the most consistent form into this race and is already a two-time stakes winner. She will be tough to beat if she can handle the mile distance and turns as she has raced exclusively on straightaway sprints.
4. Sharing (#11, 12-1) She is bred to be a star and seems to be figuring things out as she goes. She added blinkers and looked good beating an overmatched field at Laurel. I feel she has the most upside in this field.
5. Sweet Melania: (#12, 5-1) The daughter of American Pharoah looked dominate last time out at Keeneland and a repeat of that effort would make her a major player in here. She is much better when she is able to press the pace and it will be interesting to see if she can keep up with the early pace in here.
6. Selflessly: (#13. 8-1) Chad Brown in a Grade 1 turf race speaks for itself and this daughter of More Than Ready took a big step forward to break maiden in a stakes second time out. She can be right there with similar improvement in start number 3.
7. Crystalle (#7, 8-1) She has a furious late kick and if she can get into the clear, she will certainly pick up some pieces. It will be tough for her to avoid trouble with her style in this big of a field.
8. Tango (#8, 10-1) This filly crushed an overmatched field just three weeks ago and could be starting to figure things out. I still do not think she offers the upside of other runners however; as she makes start number 9 on Friday.
9. Fair Maiden (#10, 12-1) She disappointed after sitting a perfect trip at 3-5 at Woodbine. She was wandering in the stretch so the addition of blinkers should help. The ability is there but she may just be a good sprinter who can not get two turns.
10. Living in the Past (#1, 15-1) She brings good form from Europe, but is bred to be a sprinter and has the running style of a sprinter. Like Fair Maiden, I do not think her best work will come at this trip.
11. Abscond: (#4, 15-1) This feels awfully low to pick a Grade 1 winner, but she sat the perfect trip against a suspect field that resulted in a blanket finish.
12. Etoile (#14, 12-1) She was ambitiously place in a Group 3 when winning on debut, but failed to sustain that momentum second-time-out in a Group 1. This feels like a bit much too soon and she drew a tough post.
13. Unforgetable (#6, 20-1) This filly comes in with a much weaker resume than many of her European counterparts and seems overmatched in here.
14. Croughavouke (#2, 20-1) She could not get the job done in two extremely soft stakes in California and would be a shocker in this spot.
$20 Betting Strategy
$0.50 Trifecta 9 – 3, 5, 11, 12 – 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13
$0.50 Trifecta 3,5,11,12 – 9 – 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13
-Padraic Manocchio
@xbtvpadraic
