Jeff Siegel’s Belmont Park/Santa Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 9, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

Belmont Park

Saturday, June 9, 2018

RACE 1: Post 11:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-La Moneda; 3-Out of Trouble; 6-War Canoe; 7-Bonita Springs

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:11 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Mask; 6-Breaking the Rules

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​​RACE 3: Post 12:47 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Unbridled Mo; 6-Abel Tasman; 7-Unchained Melody

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:24 ET. Grade: B+

Use:  3-Monomoy Girl; 5-Caledonia Road

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​​RACE 5: Post 2:03 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Hard Study; 8-Outplay; 9-War Story

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​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:43 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Conquest Tsunami; 5-Disco Partner

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RACE 7: Post 3:22 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 8-Kanthaka; 11-World of Trouble; 12-Strike Power

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​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-On Leave; 3-Off Limits; 4-Lull; 7-A Raving Beauty

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RACE 9: Post 4:45 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Mind Your Biscuits; 8- Ransom the Moon; 10-Bee Jersey

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​​​​RACE 10: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Robert Bruce; 3-Hi Happy; 10-Beach Patrol

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RACE 11: Post 6:46 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Justify

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​​​​​RACE 12: Post 7:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Slim Shady; 6-Compass Zone; 9-Battle of Blenheim; 11-Patrick’s Day

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RACE 13: Post 8:07 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Power Reserves; 6-Autostrade

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 SANTA ANITA

Saturday, June 9, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Leroy; 7-Kristi’s Copilot

Forecast:  Leroy won his debut impressively and then improved considerably even when only finishing second in a similar state-bred first-level allowance sprint over this course and distance.  With another forward move, the Oviedo-trained gelding should be able to produce the last run.  Kristi’s Copilot won a nice Hillside sprint last October but has been routing ever since.  After six straight distance tries, the Lucky Pulpit gelding shortens to what might be his best trip and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:29 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Blaze of Glory; 7-Rak City; 9-Johnny Ray

Forecast: We’ll spread the second race, a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint at seven furlongs.  Johnny Ray lands the cozy outside post after finishing more than four clear of the rest with a career top speed figure in his first try with blinkers vs. similar last month.  Stevens should have him in an ideal pace-stalking position, so we’ll put him on top.  Blaze of Glory plummets from straight maiden to maiden $20,000 while being re-equipped with blinkers.  Mandella actually has a poor record with this kind of maneuver – he’s clearly tossing him away – but on pure numbers the Street Sense colt is a strong fit and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  Rak City is another class dropper worth considering; the Temple City gelding ran decently in his only prior dirt outing (his debut) and appears to have the proper style for this extended sprint trip.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Synthesis; 6-Sparky Ville; Parsimony

Forecast:  Sparky Ville caught our eye in his debut when rallying from far back to finish third behind Tijori and Factor of Two in what we thought was a fairly decent maiden special weight sprint for two-year-olds.  Now we’re not so sure about the strength of the race, as the first two finishers have come back to disappoint significantly in their next starts.  We’ll use Sparky Ville but definitely not as a single.  Synthesis was well-meant in his debut but came up a tad short when finishing a steady third; we’re expecting the son of First Samurai to move forward today for the Desormeaux brothers, especially if he can break sharper than he did in his first outing.  Parsimony appears the best of the newcomers; the son of Dominus looked good in a 10 seconds flat workout at the OBS March Sale and then brought $400,000 at auction.  He could be the goods and may deserve a slight edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  3-Bobby Axelrod; 4-Soltero

Forecast:  Bobby Axelrod displayed promise in his debut when a good second behind McKale in a highly-rated dirt sprint in March but then was awful when finishing far back as the favorite in a similar affair the following month.  We do know he has speed, so in his first start around two turns and in his first on turf, the son of Tale of the Cat should be able to make the running and then have every chance to take this field gate to wire.  If he’s ever going to be effective routing, it’ll be in his first try in a field without much pace.  Soltero should enjoy the garden trip stalking the leader and if ‘Axelrod folds his tent, the D’Amato-trained colt projects to be first over.  He’s probably not one to trust, having failed at even money last time out, but with the switch to Talamo the son of Blame could bounce back with his best effort.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sapphire Kid; 4-Broome; 5-Summer Down Now

Forecast:  This is a contentious starter’s allowance main track miler for fillies and mares.  Sapphire Kid, in with a feather and in her first off the claim for Chew, should have every chance.  She was more than five lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in her most recent start while earning a career-top equaling number, and though it’ll be tempting to send her from the rail, she might be better off with patient tactics.  Broome looked quite good breaking her maiden by daylight with a number that makes her a fit right back against this tougher group; she’s likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position.  Summer Down Now stretches out for the first time following a nice maiden claiming score with a strong figure.  If she can duplicate that effort at this distance – she’s bred to stay at least a mile – the Bell-trained filly will be a major player right back.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Tequila Blanco; 4-Friendly Outthedor

Forecast:  Tequila Blanco ran very well two runs back when narrowly missing in a downhill turf sprint, but couldn’t handle the wet surface in an off-the-turf miler and wound up a disappointing third as the favorite.  Back on the lawn today, the son of Cape Blanco should snap back in a big way for D’Amato, so we’ll make him the top pick and one to beat.  Friendly Outthedor is worth some consideration as well; the Hat Trick gelding shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class relief.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-There and Back; 2-Goren; 3-He’s Stylish

Forecast:  The main contention in this maiden special weight sprint for older runners is drawn inside, and that includes There and Back, a 3-year-old colt from the Baffert barn that breezed the fastest quarter mile (20 3/5 seconds) in the June 2017 OBS Sale.  He’s been equally impressive at Santa Anita this spring in morning workouts, so if he leaves with his field the son of First Dude should be hard to beat.  He’s Stylish hit the board in both of his starts last year and earned very strong speed figures in both outings.  The son of Into Mischief returns with blinkers for a barn that hits with a strong 21% with layoff runners and recent works indicate he’s fit and ready.  Goren is another newcomer worth watching; the son of More Than Ready brought $1.1 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton March Sale, where he impressed with a 10 1/5 seconds breeze at Gulfstream Park.  He’s bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree and grass might be in his future down the road, but we’ll include him on a ticket or two today as a saver.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:20 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Ms Peintour; 5-Fatale Bere; 8-Paved

Forecast:  Paved was below her best when third as the favorite in the Providencia Stakes in early April but seems capable of returning to top form today.  She beat the boys (including Belmont Stakes entrant Blended Citizen) two races back in the El Camino Real Derby and before that broke her maiden over this course and distance very impressively.  She prefers a patient ride and should get it today with the switch to Stevens.  Fatale Bere upset Paved in the Providencia with a strong late kick; however she goes from Rosario to Quinonez and needs to get the same type of perfect trip.  Ms Peintour won a first-level allowance race earlier this meeting with a huge speed figure; if she can continue to improve with racing the Koriner-trained filly should outrun her odds and maybe even win it all.  In a strong race for sophomore grass fillies, Paved gets the edge on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:50 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Talent Scout; 3-McKale; 8-Make It a Triple

Forecast: This is a tough first-level allowance race with several possibilities.  Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.  Make It a Triple has the blinkers off angle that we like so much, a cozy outside draw, and good, consistent form over the Santa Anita main track.  First or second in seven of 14 career main track starts, the son of Misremembered seems as good as any.  Baffert has two bullets to fire in this first-level allowance sprint, topped by McKale, who looks like the controlling speed.  But at close examination, his form might not be as good as it looks.  Perhaps the switch to Garcia will help, but the son of Congrats has yet to show he can battle back when coming under pressure.  Talent Scout won his debut last fall and then disappeared; his work tab leading to his comeback has been unimpressive, but there’s a possibility that he’s simply not a good work horse.  These are the three we’ll prefer but not with any strong degree of confidence.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:20 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Yellow Bonnet; 9-Myrcella

Forecast: Yellow Bonnet drops to her lowest level ever in her first start since last summer and hails from a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners.  Her prior form over this main track is good, so if she returns as well as she left she’s a major player against this group.  Myrcella finished second in a similar event last month and little more will be needed to win.  First or second in seven of 13 career starts, the daughter of Tribal Rule can be counted on for another solid effort.  In a race that should be treated carefully, we’ll try to get by using just these two.

 

RACE 11: Post 5:50 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Marckie’s Water; 2-Tule Fog; 6-Conquest Typhoon

Forecast: Conquest Typhoon had a nightmarish trip when a close third in a similar event last month; if he performs as well (minus the trouble) for new trainer Koriner he’ll beat this field.  Marcki’s Water didn’t get the clearest of runs when unplaced in his comeback, but he’s a stakes winner over this course and should be fitter and tighter today.  Tule Fog is strong on numbers and possibly the controlling speed.  A repeat of either one of his last two outings puts him right there.

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Belmont Park/Santa Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 9, 2018

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