Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Friday, August 2, 2019
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Today’s Day Makers: View video
*
*
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Brilliant Richie
Forecast: Brilliant Richie just crushed a $25,000 field at Pleasanton with a career top speed figure and today shows up for half that amount as if to indicate that his connections are trying to unload him. If the 3-year-old gelding has one good one left, he’ll win again, but at 9/5 on the morning line with this type of pattern he offers little in the way of wagering value. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Y Not Sizzle; 2-Tizzy; 3-Too Hot for Curlin
Forecast: Too Hot for Curlin is a first-timer starter from a good barn and lands Prat in this two-turn turf affair for state-bred maiden fillies and mares. The work tab isn’t especially noteworthy but in a below par field for the level she seems as good as any. Tizzy earned a career top number when a respectable third at 19-1 in her most recent start over the Golden Gate Fields turf course and if she produce another forward move today the daughter of Tiznow will be a major player. Y Not Sizzle has finished third in all four career starts and her Beyer speed figures have remained pretty much the same. From the rail, the Mullins-trained filly will enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip, and then have her chance in the lane. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics without any real conviction but otherwise sit it out.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Atina; 6-Norweigian
Forecast: Norwegian, first off the claim for Periban, earned a career top number when a solid runner-up at this level at Los Alamitos while nine lengths clear of others in her most recent start and if she can duplicate that performance today she’ll probably win. Bug boy Diaz, who was aboard in that vastly improved effort, rides her back. Atina was 10 lengths clear of the rest when second at this level at Los Alamitos last month and seems the one to fear most. In a lackluster affair, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Tilted Towers; 4-Chewing Gum; 5-Wildman Jack
Forecast: There are lots of unknowns in this five furlong turf sprint for older maidens, so best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. Tilted Towers flashed good speed before gradually weakening in his debut on dirt at Santa Anita in early June in what was a fast, highly-rated race. On paper, this looks like a considerably easier spot, so the D’Amato-trained gelding should stick much better at this shorter trip with the switch to grass. Wildman Jack is bred for speed (Goldencents) and has been working out of sight at San Luis Rey Downs while turning in some fast drills for the red hot O’Neill barn. You’d have to think he can run some. Chewing Gum is a 4-year-old son of Candy Ride finally making his debut for Mandella and Prat. He’s probably a race or two away but may be worth including on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 6-Clear to Close
Forecast: Clear to Close flashed a bit of ability at Pleasanton in straight maiden company and that form should translate well in a maiden claimer on this circuit. The Wong-trained colt should be or near the lead in this five furlong dash that doesn’t appear to have a whole lot of early speed in it, or late speed, either. In a race in which nothing else excites, let’s take a stand and make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Foxtail; 8-Mirth
Forecast: This is a strong, competitive second-level allowance middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two main contenders. Mirth earned a career top speed figure when beaten a head in the Possibly Perfect Stakes over 10 furlongs at Santa Anita in June, pressing the pace throughout, responding under pressure, but getting worn down late and missing by a neck. She’s in with a bit easier today and shortens up, so we’re expecting the D’Amato-trained filly to return to the winner’s circle with a similar performance. Her recent workouts have been excellent. Foxtail does her best on the front end and when unpoliced up front can often be difficult to run down. Freshened since May, the Sadler-trained mare switches to Bejarano and on paper should be the controlling speed.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Big Returns
Forecast: With the scratching of Fast Enough, Big Returns should be tough to beat. The son of Mr. Big blew out a soft Calbred maiden field two weeks ago and despite being wheeled back on short rest should be able to handle the quick turnaround. Additionally, he should improve as the distances increase, so we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Cal’s Gem; 3-Doc Tommy; 4-Pour On the Cole
Forecast: The finale is a state-bred maiden special weight six furlong sprint that appears to have three main contenders. Doc Tommy was a distant fourth (but in the photo for second) when debuting in a hot stakes at Pleasanton last month behind the runaway winner Bulletproof One (who came back to win again here on Wednesday). The son of Comic Strip has a much easier task today so with any kind of forward move he’ll be hard to handle. Cal’s Gem finished first in a race at Santa Anita in June but had his number taken down so he’s back with maidens. He’s the fastest in the race on pure numbers but had the misfortune of drawing the rail over a track in which the outside lanes are preferred. Pour On the Cole improved his speed figure by 17 points when fourth as the favorite in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month. He’ll enjoy today extra furlong and could be a late threat.
