Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, July 19, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Del Mar

Friday, July 19, 2019

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Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-two-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-july-19th-2019/

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RACE 1: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-El Tigre Terrible

Forecast: El Tigre Terrible exits a straight maiden race – he flashed good early speed before gradually weakening – and should benefit greatly from the outing while dropping realistically in class to the maiden $50,000 level.  He’s also a first-time gelding for a barn that has strong stats with second-time starters.  He’s the best of the known element and the first-timers don’t impress, so let’s make this Miller-trained 2-year-old a rolling exotic single at what probably will be a shorter price than his morning line of 9/5.

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​​RACE 2: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Dieci; 4-Cosa Nostra; 5-Mason Dixon

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler looks fairly wide open; we’ll try to survive and advance using just two but feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.  Cosa Nostra will be making his first career start on conventional dirt and if he takes to the surface the Irish-bred gelding should be a strong threat.  Yes, he 1-for-22 lifetime with seven seconds and isn’t one to trust, but he’s a versatile sort who can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace and R. Gonzales, his regular pilot up north, shows up to ride, so you know he’s well-meant.  Mason Dixon is stretching out again for O’Neill and has a prior win over this main track, so improvement is possible.  Dieci has rising speed figures with further room to improve after graduating from a modest bunch at Los Alamitos in just his third career start last month.  He’s realistically spotted and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  In a race we have no plans to play, these are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics. 

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​​RACE 3: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Maycee Jo; 5-Marilyn’s Smile; 11-Sunrise Royale

Forecast: ​ Bay area shipper Marilyn’s Smile has won three of her last four starts up while earning speed figures that make her a strong fit on this circuit.  She should be able to settle in the second flight and then make her run.  The concern is her prior record over the Del Mar turf course – she’s been unplaced in all three of her prior runs over the local lawn – but we’re going to assume that she’s a better type now.  Sunrise Royale is a contender despite her extreme outside draw.  In the frame in her last pair and a closing third in a similar affair at Santa Anita, the Kruljac-trained daughter of Informed may produce the last run but will need to avoid traffic trouble from off the pace.  Maycee Jo is another Northern California shipper with a big look.  She has dangerous early speed, draws the rail, and will take them as far as she can.  With Prat taking the call, she has to be used somewhere. 

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​​​RACE 4: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Lady Ninja; 6-Spend Spend Spend

Forecast: Lady Ninja has really gotten good of late and earned a career-top speed figure when winning a fast, highly-rated allowance sprint at Santa Anita in mid-May.  Away since then but training steadily at San Luis Rey Downs for the always-potent Baltas/Prat team, the daughter of Majesticperfection has a prior win over the Del Mar main track and should be hard to beat with anything close to her best race.  Spend Spend Spend is worth including at least on a few tickets.  Drawn nicely outside, the Koriner-trained filly broke her maiden over the Del Mar dirt strip impressively last year and following some time off after being beaten as the favorite in similar spot in mid-May should return to her best form for a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners. 

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​​RACE 5: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 9-Hollywood Girl; 10-Posh Holly; 11-Rayana

Forecast: The serious contention in this first-level allowance turf router for 3-year-old fillies is drawn outside, and maybe the one that can negotiate the best trip will win.  Rayana was outrun in a recent turf sprint – her first outing since she broke her maiden over this course last September in her debut – and we’re going to assume that the daughter of Scat Daddy will produce a significant forward move with that effort behind her coupled with today’s stretch out in trip.  We also like the blinkers off angle that Baffert employs in addition to a bullet six furlong workout just eight days ago.  Hollywood Girl won at first asking at 15-1 last month like a filly with some ability and earned a number that should make her competitive right back.  You could make a legitimate case that the her off-the-pace tally was greatly race-shape aided, but the daughter of Giant’s Causeway retains Blanc and could be dangerous again from off the pace.   Polly Holly broke her main at this distance on grass last fall before being turned out and then had a right to be rusty when a non-threatening fifth in a similar affair last month at Santa Anita.  Gryder will have her doing her best work from the quarter pole home. 

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​​RACE 6: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Deuce; 4-Soldier Boy; 8-Oakland Mills

Forecast: ​ Deuce showed ability in both of his career outings, most recently when second by a head in a maiden turf sprint at Santa Anita, a race that saw the son of Into Mischief hit the front in mid-stretch before being worn down late.  He’s back on dirt today and now in the Hofmans’ barn, and shows a solid, healthy work tab leading up to his first outing since early June.  Soldier Boy, another son of Into Mischief, brought $350,000 in the OBS March sale in 2018 and finally makes it to the post.  He’s been training well at Los Alamitos could be a decent sort, so we’ll include him.  Oakland Mills flashed early speed and then hung on reasonably well to be third in his debut in a hot race won by Comical Ghost in early June.  He’s recorded one bullet workout since for Mullins during a steady series of drills, and from his cozy outside draw the son of With Distinction might be able to dictate his trip.

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RACE 7: Post 7:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Ahimsa; 6-Streak of Luck; 5-Zaffinah

Forecast: Ahimsa looked quite good winning aa strong allowance race in April at Santa Anita and verified that favorable impression by coming back to finish an excellent third at 21-1 in the Gamely S.-G1 in late May.  Freshened since then but showing a bullet half mile workout in 47 2/5 seconds over the Santa Anita training track just six days ago, the Eurton-trained filly draws the favorable rail and could take this field gate to wire if allowed to establish the running without undue pressure.  Streak of Luck, a two-time winner over the Del Mar lawn and most recently sixth in the Gamely, may have been a bit too close to the early pace in that race, and if given the patient ride she needs over a course she loves the Chew-trained filly could be heard from in the final furlong. Zaffinah also is worth including on a ticket or two; she’s another with a dangerous late kick and is a perfect one-for-one over the local lawn. 

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​​RACE 8: Post 7:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Testimony

Forecast: Let’s take a stand and single Testimony in the nightcap, a weak maiden $20,000 abbreviated sprint for older horses.  In his first start in almost a year and only the second in his career, the son of Ministers Wild Cat finished a willing second in a fairly decent (for the level) maiden claimer at Pleasanton last month and seems likely to produce a forward move for the high percentage Wong stable.  Quite simply, if it’s not him, it could be anybody, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, July 19, 2019

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