Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, August 10, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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Today’s Fun in the Sun Tournament Preview: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Garth; 2-Veteran; 6-Convex
Forecast: There are at least three superior prospects in this maiden special weight sprint for juveniles and it almost certainly will take a stakes-quality runner to win it. Garth has been all the rage for several weeks and finally makes his debut for B. Baffert following a string of exceptional workouts that should have him fit and ready. Unfortunately, the son of Into Mischief drew the dreaded rail, but if he’s as good as advertised the poor draw might not hinder him. Recently, the Godolphin homebred colt worked in company with Eight Rings (see video), who was ultra-impressive breaking his maiden last week. Based on that drill, this colt may be just as good. Veteran acts like a colt with extreme speed (see video) and if he breaks running the son of Quality Speed may find himself on the front end. The R. Mandella-trained colt was purchased for $190,000 as a yearling and has looked the part in the morning. With M. Smith taking the call, you knows this colt is fit and ready. Convex has worked like a good thing for M. McCarthy (see video), lands the cozy outside post and should be more than fit for a top effort following a number of promising drills. His recent gate work (46 2/5 seconds, fastest of 91) points him out as an excellent prospect.
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RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Miss Fraulein; 3-El Tigre Terrible
Forecast: El Tigre Terrible, a progressive colt that improved his Beyer speed figure 37 points between his first and second starts, has come back to breeze an easy half mile (see video) since his maiden claiming win last month and seems capable of scoring again in this starter optional claiming sprint for juveniles. He’s one of two strong contenders from the P. Miller barn, the other the newly-acquired Miss Fraulein, who scored by more than 10 lengths in her debut last month over this track while showing good early speed to establish the pace and then lengthening on her out classed foes through the stretch. ‘Terrible has a bit of an edge on numbers while ‘Fraulein must leave from the treacherous rail, so while we’ll include both in our rolling exotics will have extra tickets keying El Tigre Terrible on top.
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RACE 3: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Drasario; 6-Billy Batts; 7-Power Source
Forecast: Irish invader Power Source had a nice breeze over the local lawn (see video) while preparing for his U. S. debut and the A. Lerner-trained colt should be fit and ready after showing some ability when a close but troubled sixth (of 14) in a maiden affair in mid-June at Limerick. This stretch out to a mile should only help, so let’s put this intriguing colt on top while also using his fellow European shipper Drasario, third (beaten a length) in the same race that Power Source exits. That was the colt’s racing debut and he certainly acquitted himself nicely at 25-1. Excellent turf rider D. Van Dyke gets the call for R. Baltas. Yet another invader, Billy Batts, deserves consideration due to the presence of F. Prat in the saddle for P. Miller. The son of City Zip already has had three outings, all in Kentucky, and most recently finished second in a maiden affair at Ellis Park. His numbers are just okay, so a decent colt probably will beat him, but we’ll toss him as a saver in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Winsinfashion; 4-Promnesia; 6-Hopscotch
Forecast: This abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming fillies has several possibilities, so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Promnesia, freshened since June, switching to dirt and turning back from a pair of route races, probably is most comfortable around one turn and this class drop coupled with a sharp, healthy work tab for M. Jones indicates this daughter of Tizdejavu is primed for a top effort. She has several back numbers that are better than par for this level and seems likely to benefit from the patient ride she’ll get from K. Desormeaux. Hopscotchy was compromised by a ruggedstart and was no factor in a slightly tougher spot and likely can do better. Her previous form in Northern California – especially when fourth with a big speed figure in her race before last – makes her a strong fit in this league. Winsinfashion might be the quickest in the field and is dropping to her lowest level ever, but she’s been unplaced in three prior outings over the Del Main track and is drawn inside, where the going is deepest. She’ll take them as far as she can under good bug boy Velez.
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RACE 5: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mr. Roary; 3-Starting Bloc; 5-Andesh
Forecast: Andesh returns off a long layoff as a first-time gelding and recent workouts (see video) indicate he’s a better type this time around for the P. D’Amato barn. He did win a decent race last fall at Santa Anita before being stopped and earned a speed figure that probably would win this race, so with F. Prat taking the call the Irish-bred son of Medicean may be well-spotted to return a winner. Mr. Roary, off since May of 2018, was claimed by J. Mullins and is returned protected in a sign of confidence. Group-1 placed over this course when third in the Eddie Read Stakes in 2017, he’s recent work tab looks promising (see video), so with long shot rider A. Delgadillo taking the mount this son of Scat Daddy provides a genuine price chance. Starting Bloc was a tad disappointing when failing to land a blow in similar affair last month over nine furlongs but shortens to a mile today, retains V. Espinoza, and is good enough to warrant a big look of his best effort. He’s won over this course in the past and shows a nice recent five furlong workout to indicate she’s doing well. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Portal Creek; 4-Square Peggy
Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a $32,000 main track sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Square Peggy deserves top billing in her first start for a tag and she can regain her winning form in this return to the main track. The daughter of Square Eddie broke her maiden over the Del Mar strip last year, and while her recent form doesn’t inspire, this class drop should wake her up. A. Gryder stays aboard and knows her well. Portal Creek won nicely at around this level two runs back during the Santa Anita meeting and her record of four victories from just 12 career starts is admirable. However, she’s never had much luck at Del Mar and then had the misfortunate of drawing the poor rail, so her task won’t be easy. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Square Peggy.
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RACE 7: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-K P Slickem; 3-Dichotomy
Forecast: K P Slickem, an excellent second at this level over this course last month while earning a career top figure, seems the logical top pick. M. Smith stays aboard and hopefully will have her a lot closer to the pace than last time, when she simply was given too much to do. Dichotomy, stretching out to a distance she’s bred to handle, was a game winner over this turf course sprinting vs. Cal-breds last month, and while the D. O’Neill-trained 3-year-old still needs improvement in the speed figure department she clearly is headed in the direction to where she needs to be. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with K P Slickem on top.
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RACE 8: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Schrodinger; 7-Fore Left
Forecast: Fore Left is perfect in two starts, an impressive maiden win at Santa Anita and then most recently in the Tremont Stakes at Belmont Park in early June by more than four lengths. The son of Twirling Candy drew the highly advantageous outside post, thus allowing M. Gutierrez to evaluate the race flow and pick a spot. Schrodinger was bet down to 2/5 in his debut at Los Alamitos in late June and won as expected, though not with the dominance that was anticipated based on his press clippings. The son of Justin Phillip continues to impress in the morning and probably can produce a forward move but will have to. We’ll try to get by using just these two with Fore Left, mostly due to the favorable draw, getting the edge on top.
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RACE 9: Post 6:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-First Screening; 3-Smoovie; 5-Miss Hot Legs
Forecast: First Screening is a quick filly drawn inside and probably will employ gate-to-wire tactics. The daughter of First Samurai had a very nice breeze over the course six days ago (a bullet half mile in 48 1/5 seconds around dogs in company with Mucho Unusual, see video) and seems set to produce a significant forward move with the switch in surface. Miss Hot Legs has developed into a specialist of sorts as a grass sprinter and was finished a strong third as the favorite under these conditions earlier in the meeting. Training quite well since (see video), the S. Callaghan-trained filly may be capable of regaining her winning form from a good stalking position. Smoovie turns back to a sprint, continues to work well (see video), and has a few speed figures on her resume that make her dangerous at a nice price. She’s been running long most of her career but might be best suited as a late-running sprinter.
