Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, August 24, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-For Him
Forecast: For Him has little to beat in this bottom-rung $8,000 claiming main track miler and probably will go lower than his morning line of 2-1. He’s in sharp form for P. D’Amato, retains good bug boy J. Velez, and apparently likes this deep Del Mar main track. He’s a short-price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Temple Knights; 4-Legally Gray; 7-Bound to Go
Forecast: Bound to Go had a bit of rough journey in his debut and can only improve. The A. Sherman-trained gelding needs to leave cleanly and if he does he should have enough speed to be within range and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Temple Knights is stuck on the rail but has speed figures that make him dangerous. If he can secure a good trip, the Temple City gelding could break through with a maiden win in career start number 12. Legally Gray is slow on numbers but this is a realistic class drop to the maiden $20,000 level and this Bay Area invader should be competitive at this level on this circuit.
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RACE 3: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Push Through; 2-Golden Birthday; 5-Three Ay Em
Forecast: Three Ay Em is stretching out for the first time and has the pedigree and running style to be effective around two turns. The son of New Year’s Day might try gate-to-wire tactics and given that trip he could get very brave on the front end. He offers value at or near his morning line of 4-1 in the win pool as well as in rolling exotic play. Push Through, a strong second under these conditions last time out, lands the good rail and should have every chance with a ground-saving, second-flight trip. Golden Birthday was overmatched in the La Jolla Handicap last time out but is realistically spotted today and can be a late threat with a little bit of help up front.
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RACE 4: Post 3:43 PT. Grade: B
Single: 4-Zorich
Forecast: With scratching of Mica Bay, this race should be left to Zorich. A good second under similar conditions last month while earning a career top number, the Hard Spun gelding has produced rising speed figures in each of his last three starts and with another forward move should be home free in this maiden claiming $50,000 main track miler. He was originally listed at 5/2 on the morning line but now will go considerably lower as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tammy’s Window; 2-Moonless Sky; 11-Sugary
Forecast: Tammy’s Window, first off the claim for P. Miller, gets the rail, adds blinkers, and switches to F. Prat. It all adds up to a significant forward move for the veteran mare who has won over this course in the past and is due to return to good form. At or near her morning line at 9/2, she’s worth a gamble. Moonless Sky takes a significant class drop, has speed figures that put her in the hunt, and is another with a prior win over the local lawn. She’ll be running on strongly late with the switch to D. Van Dyke. Sugary was originally drawn farther out than we’d prefer but with three scratches she moves in to post eight, not too bad. We’re expecting that she’ll fire a good shot after a couple of months of R and R and is yet another in the field that has shown a liking for the Del Mar turf course. Also, she will get the patient ride she needs from K. Desormeaux.
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RACE 6: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Fait Accompli; 3-Mikes Operator
Forecast: The sixth race is another bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint and is a split of the second race. We’ll try to get by using just two. Fait Accompli moves to the G. Stute barn, adds Lasix, and with only two career starts has upside the others don’t. Second in a similar spot last time out while more than four lengths clear of the rest, the son of Flat Out seems the solid choice. Mikes Operator has a runner-up effort at Los Alamitos two races back that charts well here and drops to the bottom for the first time. He was stuck on the deep rail last time out when facing $40,000 foes and never landed a blow but should go much better against this group.
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RACE 7: Post 5:15 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Eclair
Forecast: Éclair failed at 3/5 in her debut, flashing speed along the deeper inside before fading out of the picture in the final furlong. We’re expecting the daughter of Bernardini to improve a ton today with the switch to turf, the shortening to five furlongs, the removal of blinkers, and following a very smart recent half mile workout in 48 4/5 seconds that saw her best of the team while breezing throughout. At 3-1 on the morning line, we’ll make the B. Baffert trained filly – a $420,000 2-year-old-in-training purchase at Santa Anita in June – a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 5:45 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Fashionably Fast; 7-Cruel Intention; 9-Oakland Mills
Forecast: Fashionably Fast toyed with first-level allowance state-bred foes last time out, winning for fun without being asked for his best. The son of Lucky Pulpit equaled his career top speed figure in the process, has trained sharply since, and looks capable of repeating vs. open company today. Cruel Intention has failed at odds-on in both of his starts off a long layoff; perhaps he’s not quite the same promising colt he once was or maybe he’s simply needed a couple of runs before rounding back into shape. Third in the Real Good Deal Stakes last time out in a race that was flattered when runner-up Oliver came back to win easily last week, the B. Baffert-trained son of Smiling Tiger is reunited with “win rider” D. Van Dyke and is worth using one more time in rolling exotic play. At a big price (he’s 20-1 on the morning line), the lightly-raced and improving Oakland Mills is worth tossing in on a ticket two. The J. Mullins-trained son of With Distinction graduated in his second career start here last month and should continue to improve with experience. He can at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 9: Post 6:13 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Catalina Cruiser
Forecast: Catalina Cruiser struggled to win the San Diego H.-G2 last month while appearing to labor after racing along the deeper rail throughout, but today he gets the highly-favorable outside draw and should make short work of his outclassed foes. He’s 4/5 on the morning line, probably will go lower, and really shouldn’t miss this easy chance. The J. Sadler-trained son of Union Rags also picks up F. Prat for the first time, yet another positive factor. He’s an obvious short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 6:41 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Combat Zone; 9-Boru; 10-Reedley
Forecast: Combat Zone is just 1-for-13 lifetime and probably not one to trust but he makes a monumental jockey switch to F. Prat. After missing by a neck in a restricted $32,000 claimer over this course and distance earlier this month, today, in a sign of confidence, he is protected in starter’s allowance company. Comfortably drawn, the son of War Front should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Boru finally broke his maiden in his 10th career start and did so with a career top speed figure. He can be dangerous right back if he can duplicate that effort today. Reedley, first off the claim for A. Marquez, stretches out and switches to grass for the first time. The lightly-raced son of Paynter has every right to improve with distance and experience and will be tough if he can replicate his sprint speed figures under these conditions. At 8-1 on the morning line, he’s a “must use.”
