Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, August 3, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Éclair; 5-Lazy Daisy
Forecast: Two first-timer starters should get most of the play in the Saturday opener for maiden two-year-old fillies. Lazy Daisy brought just $39,000 at the OBS April sale but she appears to have considerably more promise than that. The D. O’Neill-trained filly has done plenty of good work in the morning including two solid five furlong gate works over the Del Mar main track (view video) to insure fitness. She lands the ideal outside post and should come out firing. Éclair was highly touted in the Santa Anita two-year-old in training sale in June; she was very impressive in the preview session and was sold for $420,000. Her workouts since joining the Baffert barn have been good, but not what you’d call great (view video). We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but since Lazy Daisy is certain to be the better price of the two, we’ll put her on top and use her in the straight pool as well.
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RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Whatsittoya; 7-Conquest Smartee
Forecast: Conquest Smartee switched surfaces and finally broke his maiden in his 13th career start, doing so at Los Alamitos with a career top Beyer speed figure in a nine-length romp. Maybe he’s always wanted to be a dirt horse? Drawn nicely outside, the son of Smart Strike can score right back in this restricted $16,000 seller if he can turn in two alike. Whatsittoya, first off the claim for Hess (excellent 20% with this angle), was caught along the deep inside and paid the price when flashing good early speed but weakening late in an open $16,000 event here last month. He returns for the same price and looks like the quickest of the quick but will need considerable improvement in the speed figure department. We’ll use him on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play while conceding that Conquest Smartee is clearly the one to beat.
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RACE 3: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Smiling Angelo; 5-Stop the Violence; 7-North County Guy
Forecast: Smiling Angelo was given a tall task in June when making his first start off a 10-month layoff in the Thors Echo Stakes, a race that produced subsequent Bing Crosby S.-G1 runner-up Desert Law. The son of Smiling Tiger showed his usual zip to lead the way for a half before fading; he’ll be fitter and stronger today thanks to the class drop combined with the return to five furlongs. Though his only prior grass race was disappointing, the P. D’Amato-trained 4-year-old had an excellent bullet drill around dogs over the local lawn last week (view video) so we’re not going fret the surface switch. Stop the Violence, a sharp winner over this course and distance when last seen almost a year ago, returns protected in a sign of confidence by Miller and has been given enough of a foundation to expect he’s fit and ready to fire a big shot. He’ll need to improve in the speed figure department but might be capable of doing that. North County Guy hasn’t won since last October but usually threatens from off the pace and if a hot pace materializes he could produce a dangerous late kick. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Smiling Angelo on top.
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RACE 4: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Fly the Sky; 7-Eustace
Forecast: Fly the Sky shows up in a maiden claimer and as a first-time gelding and should be capable of producing a significant forward move in this abbreviated sprint restricted to California-bred runners. The S. Miyadi-trained juvenile has a runner-up effort in straight maiden company at Los Alamitos two races back that probably beats this field, so let’s put him on top while also including the sneaky Pleasanton shipper Eustace. Stuck on the rail when racing greenly and unplaced in his debut in a hot straight maiden sprint while taking the worst of that track’s anti-inside bias, the son of Ministers Wild Cat adds blinkers, gets R. Bejarano, and draws the preferred outside post. If he can run – and we suspect he can at this level – this is a good spot to show it.
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RACE 5: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Amalfi Sunrise
Forecast: Amalfi Sunrise was the most impressive 2-year-old maiden filly winner we’ve seen all year – in California and anywhere else – and returns in this graded stakes race as the 8/5 morning line favorite. The S. Callaghan-trained daughter of Constitution has looked spectacular in the morning (view video) since that win in June, and today’s extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be any problem at all. With main contender Comical buried on the rail, we’ll make ‘Sunrise a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Dom the Bomb; 5-Eric the Trojan
Forecast: Here’s another five furlong turf sprint, this one a rather salty affair for $40,000 claimers. Dom the Bomb is a pro’s pro. A winner of 16 of 39 career starts including six of seven this year while campaigning exclusively in Northern California, the J. Wong-trained gelding brings his act to SoCal and although up in class again looks capable of continuing his superior form. His numbers sprinting on grass at Golden Gate Fields are better than par for this level. If ‘Bomb receives too much early pace pressure and pays the price late, Eric the Trojan is the logical main threat from off the pace. Never off the board in eight career starts sprinting on grass, the son of More Than Ready makes his first start since being re-claimed at this level by J. Carava in June, and after a brief freshening looks quite dangerous with his best effort. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with the edge on top going to Dom the Bomb.
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RACE 7: Post 5:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Durga; 8-Goddess Aphrodite
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress in this maiden $50,000 sprint for state-bred fillies and mares so let’s take a close look at a couple of dangerous first-time starters. Durga acts like a quick filly in the morning but hasn’t really been asked to show her true speed (view video), as is typical from young runners in the L. Powell barn. The daughter of Lakerville gets R. Bejarano and should be plenty fit following a solid five furlong drill over the Del Mar main track. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’s better than that. Goddess Aphrodite gets the preferred outside draw for her debut and hails from the clever P. Miller barn. While there’s nothing really flashy on her work tab, she has a healthy pattern and probably can run some for a barn that sends ‘em fit and spots ‘em right. We’ll prefer Durga on top and have extra tickets on her in the straight pool but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Vasilika; 5-Lemoona
Forecast: Vasilika has some unfinished business at Del Mar, the scene of her only defeat in her last 12 races last December when she finished fourth in the Matriarch S.-G1. Undefeated in four starts since, she loses regular rider F. Prat (who opted to ride Bellafina at Saratoga today) while picking up J. Leparoux and must carry high weight of 125 lbs. under handicap conditions. Therefore, she could be vulnerable, her unquestioned class notwithstanding. Lemoona, vastly improved of late but unproven at this level, gets her chance to to show she belongs following a visually pleasing win in the listed Possibly Perfect Stakes at Santa Anita in mid-June. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid is clearly most effective on turf and possesses a wicked turn of foot, so with a solid pace and good racing luck she might be able to pull off an upset. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but due to price considerations we’ll put Lemoona on top.
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RACE 9: Post 6:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Boujie Girl; 9-Give Me a Hint; 10-Madame Vestal
Forecast: This first-level allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares may be the deepest, most difficult race on the card. In a field full of question marks, use as many as you can afford to in your rolling exotics. Give Me a Hint is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and offers value at that price for a number of reasons. The daughter of Merit Man broke her maiden by more than nine lengths in her debut over this track last year, so we know she likes the deep Del Mar strip and can fire fresh. She has some back class (she’s a Cal-bred stakes winner) and has won under Desormeaux in the past. She has a bullet five furlong drill in her current workout cycle to indicate fitness and has the proper stalking/closing style for this extended sprint trip. Another 10-1 shot worth considering is Madame Vestal, away since last October but looking good in the morning for E. Kruljac. The daughter of Into Mischief earned a huge speed figure when breaking her maiden at Santa Anita as a 2-year-old, but then had to be stopped on. If she returns as well as she left, the daughter of Merit Man will be dangerous. Boujie Girl is yet another offering a nice price at 5-1 on the morning line. A first-out winner last year at Del Mar, the P. Miller-trained filly finished out her 2-year-old season placing in multiple graded stakes (including a third in the Del Mar Debutante) and is reunited with “win rider” Van Dyke while also sporting the popular “blinkers off” angle. A recent 59 3/5 gate work over the deep Del Mar strip should have her primed and ready. These are the three we’ll sink or swim with in our rolling exotics – there are several other possibilities to consider if your budget allows – while slightly preferring Give Me a Hint on top.
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RACE 10: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Busy Paynter; 6-Equal Measure; 8-Dulverton Darling
Forecast: High-priced maiden claiming fillies and mares meet on turf over a mile, and typical of race like this there several potential contenders at nice prices. Busy Paynter moves like a filly who’ll enjoy turf and two-turns and gets her chance to prove it today with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern jumping off her past performance chart. She’s certainly bred to run this far, and with A. Gryder staying aboard and from a favorable inside draw the Koriner-trained filly should find herself on or near the lead throughout. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s the preferred play. Equal Measure has hit the board in six of seven career starts and should be somewhere in the fray again. A repeat of her second place finish in a maiden $75,000 turf affair two runs back charts might be good enough for her to finally break through. Dulverton Darling, first off the $50,000 claim by high percentage trainer A. Lerner, adds Lasix and blinkers and is very likely to produce a forward move following a bullet three furlong blowout here just a few days ago. We also like the switch to hot-riding D. Van Dyke.