Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, July 27, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View video
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Today’s Bullet Drill: View video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Wrecking Crew; 5-Frederickatown
Forecast: Wrecking Crew was highly impressive in the Fasig-Tipton March preview session, breezing a furlong in a sizzling 9 4/5 seconds, after which he brought $875,000 at auction. His local works have been eye-opening as well, so we’re expecting this first-time starter by freshman stallion Sky Kingdom to be heavily-backed in this maiden juvenile six furlong sprint. The others could be running for second money. Fredericktown hasn’t been nearly as flashy in the morning but is well regarded in his own right. The debuting son of Constitution was best of a three-horse team last week while being clocked in 1:02 2/5 seconds over the Del Mar main track (view video) and could have gone a whole lot faster if permitted. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Parsimony; 7-Mo Forza
Forecast: By all rights Parsimony should have won a race by now – he’s a 13-race maiden – and certainly would have had his connections stayed away from the occasional foray into stakes competition (which, to be fair, netted a considerable amount of purse money). Back where he belongs following a runner-up effort to Game Winner in the Los Alamitos Derby-G3, the O’Neill-trained colt returns to grass, the surface that saw him finished an excellent second in the Cinema Stakes during the Santa Anita meeting. A recent sharp workout (view video) indicates the son of Dominus still has his enthusiasm, so at 5/2 on the morning line he offers excellent value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. For those who can’t quite trust him, consider Mo Forza as a back-up. In the money in both of his starts and adding blinkers for hot trainer Miller, the son of Uncle Mo isn’t nearly as fast on speed figures as the favorite but he has plenty of room for improvement, retains Prat, and should be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 3: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Cruel Intention
Forecast: Cruel Intention was beaten as the choice in his comeback at Santa Anita but didn’t run badly considering it was his first time facing older horses. The speed figure earned in that fourth place effort was well below his best, but with tightener behind him and three good recent workouts since that race (view video) the Baffert-trained colt should be fit and ready to show best stuff. In a five runner field, he’ll be no price, but we can still utilize the Smiling Tiger colt as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Hackberry
Forecast: Hackberry is gradually improving with racing and appears ready to earn his diploma in his fourth career start. The son of English Channel has produced a forward in each of his three prior starts and has earned excellent numbers in the process, so in this middle distance turf affair for maidens – a split of the second race – the Blacker-trained colt should settle in mid-pack and then take control when ready. At 5/2 on the morning line he offers plenty of value, however, he’ll probably go lower. Still, well can make a strong single in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Cross Town; 10-My Way Out
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs in race that pretty much boils down to two main contenders. My Way Out lands the cozy outside post on a track that has been heavily promoting the outside lanes and should produce a significant forward move after displaying some ability when runner-up in his debut at Los Alamitos earlier this month. From the high percentage Lerner barn, the Paynter gelding likely will draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then have every chance to close deal from the quarter pole home. Cross Town, a distant fourth in his debut in a tougher maiden $50,000 affair at Santa Anita last month, drops for the money run as a first-time gelding and picks up Prat, so there is much to like. He’s faster on speed figures than My Way Out so he’s likely to be a strong favorite and perhaps deservedly so. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying My Way Out on top.
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RACE 6: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Perfect Wager; 9-Policy; 10-Fashionably Fast
Forecast: This first-level allowance sprint came up pretty salty. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics but you can make a good case for a few others as well. Fashionably Fast is drawn perfectly outside and should fold over into a nice stalking position just off the leaders. We love the blinkers off angle and the two nice drills since his last race, so we’re expecting the Lucky Pulpit gelding to fire his best shot over a track he ran quite well on last year. Policy will be dangerous if ready. The work tab is good, and this Strong Mandate colt graduated at first asking here last year and then was stakes-placed, so we know he’s capable of firing fresh and likes the Del Mar surface. Additionally, this barn has excellent stats with layoff runners, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.” Perfect Wager is a solid fit on numbers, has won over this track in the past, and should be rolling late on a surface that has been promoting the rally-widers all season long. Desormeaux stays aboard and fits him well.
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RACE 7: Post 5:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Great Return; 5-Vibrance; 7-Velvet Queen; 9-Salsa Bella
Forecast: Great Return has much in her favor while stretching out for the first time from the favorable rail and offers excellent value at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. The Mandella-trained filly looked extra sharp in her comeback over five furlongs on grass last month, finishing well to be a strong second before galloping full of run, far in front of the rest. Based on pedigree she should improve considerably over a distance of ground, and Van Dyke, who knows her well, can be expected to have within striking range throughout. We like her strongly on top, but there are others to consider at least as back-ups. Vibrance has looked quite good in the morning (view video) while preparing for her comeback for M. McCarthy; she was Grade-1 stakes placed twice last year including a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Her prior grass outing was below standard, but it came in her debut run so we won’t hold it against her. A recent breeze over the local lawn was impressive. New York invader Salsa Bello also breezed well the other day (view video) to indicate that she’s arrived fit and ready for new trainer Lerner. She’ll be running on late.
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RACE 8: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Desert Law; 5-Air Strike; 8-Jalen Journey
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Bing Crosby S.-G1 is a fascinating affair with contenders top to bottom. Naturally, there’s plenty of speed, but over a track that has taken its toll on front-runners during the first couple of weeks of the season we’ll concentrate on the closing types and hope for a meltdown up front. Desert Law has never been sharper and was superb winning a state-bred stakes at Santa Anita last month with a career-top speed figure, one that if repeated today puts him in the hunt. His recent workouts (view video) indicate he remains on edge, and with a prior win over the Del Mar main track the son of Desert Code will be dangerous if he can negotiate a good trip form his number two position. Ideally, he’ll get outrun early, maneuver his way to the better part of the track at the head of the lane and then blast home. After an extended series of two-turn races, Air Strike shortened to seven furlongs in mid-May and sprung an upset in the Triple Bend Stakes-G2 while supplying evidence that he’s always wanted to be a late-running sprinter. He may find six furlongs a tad sharp, but over this rally-wide track he’ll have his chance. Jalen Journey lands the comfortable outside draw and is guaranteed a perfect stalking trip. Lightly-raced but very fast on speed figures, the Miller-trained gelding picks up Smith and is dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post 6:09 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 2-Imprint
Forecast: This mile turf maiden affair for juvenile fillies came up soft, and that’s just fine for Imprint, a filly with some real promise for M. McCarthy barn. The daughter of Quality Road lands a lovely inside draw and gets Prat, and while all of her good workouts (view video) have been accomplished on dirt, there’s reason why shouldn’t be highly effective on grass. The barn does well with debut runners, another plus, so at 3-1 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
