Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, July 28, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Del Mar

Sunday, July 28, 2019

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View video

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Today’s Bullet Drills: View Video

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Immediate Impact

Forecast: Arrogate’s half-sister Immediate Impact makes her debut in today’s opener and the daughter of Into Mischief has done everything in the morning like a top prospect.  The Baffert-trained 2-year-old filly tuned up with a bullet half mile drill over the Del Mar main track in 47 2/5 seconds just five days ago, fastest of 34 for the distance. In a small field from her cozy outside post, she is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and is certain to go lower, probably odds-on.  We’ll make her an obvious, no-value, rolling exotic single and then enjoy the show.

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:36 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-On Raglan Road; 4-Shadrack

Forecast: A couple of Northern California invaders appear well-placed in this first-level state-bred allowance turf miler and we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.  Shadrack is lightly-raced with rising speed figures and has crossed the wire first in three of his four career starts, although he lost one of those wins via disqualification.  Freshened since early June and sporting a nice, steady series of workout since then, the McCanna-trained gelding has a good stalking style and should have every chance to secure a favorable position in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of pace in it.  On Raglan Road returns to grass, his preferred surface, and can be the controlling speed if his connections choose to employ that strategy.  In his most recent start, the Tamayo-trained gelding was buried on the dead rail at Pleasanton over a dirt surface he didn’t care for, so that race can be tossed.  His Golden Gate Fields grass form translates nicely here. 

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​​RACE 3: Post 3:11 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Dueling; 5-Major Cabbie; 7-Kylemore

Forecast: ​ Major Cabbie makes his first start since joining the Miller barn and can be expected to improve considerably.  A sharp recent workout over this main track caught the eye, and we’ve always liked the blinkers off angle, so it all adds up to significant forward move by this once-promising son of Into Mischief.  He’s also reunited with “win rider” Van Dyke, so at 6-1 on the morning line he looks like a gamble.  Dueling is rounding into form for Ward and appears set for his best effort in his third start off a layoff.  Smith takes the call and was aboard this son of Violence when he broke his maiden during the summer of his 2-year-old season.  Kylmore is a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar main track and has back numbers that would win, so we’ll include him as well in what appears to be a stronger than par race for the level.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 3:46 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Italiano; 5-Top Brass; 7-Spokane Eagle

Forecast: Top Brass returned from a 13-month layoff to win a starter’s $12,500 allowance sprint in mid-June at Santa Anita and has worked solidly since for Glatt, who raises the gelding up to the $32,000 level in a sign of confidence.  The winner of six of 15 career starts has the ideal style for this extended sprint trip and may be able to tag the speed in the final furlong.  Spokane Eagle drops a level off a sharp runner-up effort in an optional claiming $40,000 affair at Santa Anita but remains above his claim level so we’ll assume he’s set for another strong effort.  Drawn comfortable outside the other speed types and a prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the Truman-trained gelding has been through many barns during his career but always seems to give his best.  We’re not crazy about the inside (post 2) draw for Italiano. Based on the projected race flow the Miyadi-trained colt might be caught inside on or near the deep rail, but if he can extract himself the son of Twirling Candy is quite capable of winning at this level.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with perhaps a slight edge on top to Top Brass.

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​​RACE 5: Post 4:20 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 8-Reedley; 10-Mutineer

Forecast: Reedley doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this maiden $40,000 claiming sprint and deserves to win a race after being nosed out in his first two career starts.  He actually improved his Beyer speed figure 23 points between his first and second outings and his work pattern looks good, so the son of Paynter shouldn’t have any excuses as the logical top pick.  He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go lower.  Mutineer lands the good outside post in his first start in a claimer and the D’Amato-trained gelding surely will appreciate this softer spot.  He’ll also enjoy a massive weight break with the switch to talented bug boy Velez, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two in our rolling exotics but reserve the main punch for Reedley.

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​​RACE 6: Post 4:50 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Cool Runnings; 10-Railsplitter

Forecast: ​ Maiden juveniles compete over a mile and one-sixteenth on turf, and none of these have run, or even trained, on grass.    Railsplitter seems intriguing despite his extreme outside post, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top.  The son of Bodemeister was given a run in an abbreviated sprint last month at Santa Anita and finished steadily to fifth, beaten less than three lengths, and then galloped out well in what has proven to be a productive race.  The colt looks and trains like a route-type, so if he can manage to negotiate a decent trip he should be a major player in a field full of question marks.  Cool Runnings is a first-timer by American Pharoah that brought “only” $60,000 as a yearling, but he’s trained well enough for Desormeaux to indicate he has some ability, and offspring of the Triple Crown winner have performed quite well on turf so far this year, so this colt’s debut over a distance of ground on turf is intriguing.  There are a few others you may want to consider in this grass grab bag but we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two. 

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RACE 7: Post 5:20 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Ollie’s Candy; 5-Paradise Woods

Forecast: Ollie’s Candy is starting to peak for Sadler and seems set for a career top effort.  The winner of the Summertime Oaks-G2 last year in her last outing on dirt, she returns to the main track today and following a strong runner-up effort in the Wilshire S.-G3 in her second-off-a-layoff performance last month.  A healthy series of workouts since that race indicates she’s ready to return to her best. Paradise Woods lost all chance with a poor start in the Santa Maria S.-G2 when second at 20 cents on the dollar, so we’ll forgive her for that.  Clearly, she’s the one to beat again based on her 10 length romp two races back in the Santa Margarita S.-G1, and a bullet five furlong drill over the Del Mar main track just five days ago indicates that she’s spot on.  The only concern, of course, is that she has a history of failing as the heavy favorite, sometimes with legitimate excuses, sometimes without.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics, and since she’ll be the better price of the two, prefer Ollie’s Candy on top.

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​​RACE 8: Post 5:50 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Desert Oasis; 7-Unicorn

Forecast: Desert Oasis finished a respectable fourth in a similar maiden affair at Santa Anita in her U.S. debut last month and should move forward considerably off that effort for a barn that has super stats with second-off-layoff runners.  She adds blinkers today and looked extra sharp working wearing them during a recent training track move for Drysdale, who switches to his go-to rider Bejarano.  The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should be set to us her best stuff.  Unicorn must be included somewhere in your rolling exotics as well.  The daughter of Bodemeister flashed ability in a pair of starts last winter – she finished second to fillies who each went on to win stakes - before being stopped on but returns for Baltas with a nice series of drills and this time around will race without blinkers. 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, July 28, 2019

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