Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, August 29, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Del Mar

Thursday, August 29, 2019

*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

*

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

*

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.  

Grade B=Solid Play.  

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.  

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

*

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*

​​*

Today’s Day Makers: View video

*

*

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sigur Ros; 5-Denman’s Call; 7-Cats Blame

Forecast: Cats Blame lands the favorable outside post position in this extended sprint for $25,000 claimers and looks well-spotted to regain his best form after chasing much tougher rivals in all of his recent outings.  Realistically spotted (finally) and with speed figures that make him a strong fit at this level, the S. Knapp-trained gelding should settle in mid-pack and then produce his best run from the quarter pole home.  Denman’s Call got a confidence-building win vs. $16,000 foes earlier this month and earned a number that makes him a threat right back despite the class hike.  He once had some quality and may be ready to ascend the class ladder. Signur Ros, away since last October and therefore ineligible to be claimed, had the misfortune of drawing the dreaded rail but his work tab look good, the barn is solid with layoff runners, and the Gemologist gelding has shown a liking for the Del Mar main track in the past.  We’ll try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Cats Blame. 

*

*

​​RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Gingham; 5-K P Dreamin; 6-Bristol Bayou

Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies meet over a mile with K P Dreamin trying to build on the favorable impression she made in her debut when finishing fourth in a monster race won by Inspiressa.  There’s nobody even remotely that tough in this race, and the daughter of Union Rags seems assured of producing a significant forward move while stretching out to a much more suitable distance.  Bristol Bayou displayed some ability when third in what has proven to be a productive sprint in her debut about a month ago, has trained well since, retains V. Espinoza, and with Point Given on the bottom side of her pedigree is another that seems likely to improve with distance and experience.  Gingham, a first-timer from the B. Baffert barn, is a daughter of Quality Road with a useful series of works on her resume.  Winning first time out routing over this deep and taxing main track is tough, especially, for a 2-year-old filly, but she has shown enough in the a.m. to include her on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.  Strong preference on top goes to K P Dreamin.

*

*

​​RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Excavation; 7-Puriano

Forecast:Puriano goes from the dreaded rail to the favorable outside post and with this drop in class from $20,000 to $12,500 and the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider J. Talamo the M. Glatt-trained gelding seems likely to improve dramatically.  The lightly-raced six-year-old has had only 10 career starts but has four wins and could easily add to that total under today’s very favorable conditions.  There are several positive factors in the chart of Excavation that point to an improved performance as well.  The veteran son of Mineshaft is a first-off-the-claim for the J. Wong barn, which has superior stats with this angle (26%).  Additionally, he’s being re-equipped with blinkers, is reunited with “win rider” J. Velez, shows an easy half mile breeze since raced for his new connections, and is going from a route to a sprint, an especially effective maneuver at Del Mar.  His record at Del Mar (two wins, a second, and a third in six starts) is outstanding and his best speed figure over this main track is better than par for this level. 

*

*

​​​RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B

Use: 7-Zip the Monkey; 8-Zeke

Forecast: The main contention is drawn toward the outside in this $25,000 claiming turf router that appears to boil down to two main players.  Zeke shows the blinkers off angle that we like so much after finishing a solid third with a career top speed figure in a tough starter’s allowance race over this course and distance three weeks ago.  F. Prat stays aboard the improving gelding, who should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance when it counts.  Zip the Monkey, a strong runner-up in the same race Zeke exits, loves this turf course (two wins in four starts) and with some help up front might should be heard from in the final furlong. 

*

*

​​RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 8-K P Cats Wild; 10-Biddy Duke

Forecast: This $32,000 maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies has little in it; we’ll use two but with a low degree of confidence.  Biddy Duke just got trounced by more than 14 lengths when a distant second as the odds-on favorite to the freaky Leucothea and certainly won’t have anybody of that ilk to worry about here.  The B. Hess, Jr.-trained daughter of Bayern is fastest on speed figures compared to the others in the field that have started but will have to worry about any sneaky first timer that might emerge.  K P Cats Wild might fit that bill; the daughter of Tale of the Cast has worked okay – well enough at least to be considered a contender in a soft race like this - and shows a steady series of drills for J. Mullins that should have her fit.  We’ll try to survive using just these two with Biddy Duke the likely short price favorite.

*

*

​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Red Bunting; 5-Posh Holly; 6-Senoradiablo

Forecast: ​Here’s a contentious race on a challenging card, this one for $50,000 claiming fillies and mares at a mile and one-sixteenth on turf.  Posh Holly looks well-spotted in her first start in a seller and has numbers that make her a strong fit at this level.  The P. D’Amato-trained import likes to settle and produce a run, and in her third start off a layoff the Irish import should be ready to show her best stuff.  Another Irish-bred filly, Red Bunting, is a contender as well.  The lightly-raced daughter of Rip Van Winkle finished a willing third in a similar affair earlier this month and with just four career starts likely has room for further improvement.  Senoradiablo isn’t fast on numbers but you have to respect the filly who has been first or second in nine of 14 career starts while racing primarily at Turf Paradise and Emerald Downs.  She comes from a high percentage outfit, can handle any surface, and should be dangerous rallying from somewhere in mid-pack. 

*

*

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-D’s Lovely Sophia; 4-Wishful

Forecast: D’s Lovely Sophia is unbeaten in two starts with rising numbers and should be tough once again in this first-level allowance sprint for California-bred fillies and mares.  She has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint trip and with another forward move should be more than capable of winning again on the raise.  Wishful is re-equipped with blinkers and is back with F. Prat, who won on her earlier this year at Santa Anita.  The daughter of Storm Wolf is genuine and consistent, and though not particular impressive in the speed figure department should at least hit the board.  These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with extra tickets keying D’s Lovely Sophia on top.

*

*

RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Volubile

Forecast: The finale is a maiden-claiming nine furlong affair for older horses that seems like an ideal spot for Volubile.  The More Than Ready gelding is dropping into the maiden $50,000 ranks for the first time after chasing straight maiden foes in his first four starts and based on speed figures and running style he will be highly competitive at this level.  Today’s nine furlong distance should be right up his alley, and his most recent start was a bit better than the line will show.  At 5-1 on the morning line he offers strong value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, August 29, 2019

Jeff Siegel's Blog |