Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investmnt level.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Thursday, July 25, 2019
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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Today’s Bullet Drills: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Jetovator; 4-Loaded Joe; 5-Satanta
Forecast: Satanta finally makes his debut at age four and does so in a straight maiden Calbred sprint. Although this barn doesn’t have much of a record with first time starters, the fact that Mullins protects him rather than run the gelding for a modest tag – which he easily could have done without raising an eyebrow – gives indication that the connections believe he can run some. A bullet half mile gate drill last week in 47 2/5 seconds – the fastest of 63 for the distance – confirms this belief. The best of the known element may be Jetovator, a solid runner-up sprinting at Los Alamitos with a career top number earlier this month. If he can reproduce that performance over this deeper main track, the Grazen gelding will be tough. We also have to strongly consider Loaded Joe, in the money in all three career starts and shortening from a route and returning to dirt after a couple of solid performances two-turning on grass at Santa Anita. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Satanta on top.
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RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Kenjisstorm; 3-Unusually Green
Forecast: Unusually Green vans down from the Bay Area following a solid runner-up in a tougher second-level allowance turf event at Golden Gate Fields last month and had the form franked when the horse that beat him, Calle Kingpin, won a nice race here last week. First or second in five of eight career starts over the Del Mar turf course, the veteran gelding shows up in a $32,000 event that is restricted to horses that have not won in 2019. With regular rider Cedillo aboard, the son of Unusual Heat should take full advantage of the opportunity for high percentage trainer Wong. Kenjisstorm, first off the $40,000 claim by Carava, drops a level after failing to deliver as the favorite last month. The 7-year-old son of Stormy Atlantic has never raced this cheaply and apparently has lost a step, but his past class could carry him through. We’ll include him on a ticket or two, but the main punch both in the straight pool and in the rolling exotics goes to Unusually Green.
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RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Convoluted; 3-Establish Justice
Forecast: The third race is a high priced maiden-claiming five furlong sprint for juvenile fillies, with six of the seven scheduled starters making their debuts. Convoluted is a first-timer from the Miller barn with Prat taking the call, so we suspect she’s live. By Distorted Humor from a stakes winning mare, she was purchased for $43,000 at the OBS April sale where she previewed in 10 2/5 seconds. That’s an average clocking for that venue but she displayed a nice stride and fluid action and gave indication of some ability, enough at least to be a major player in a race like this. Establish Justice is a graduate of the OBS March sale, where she sizzled a quarter pole in 21 1/5 seconds before bringing $110,000 at auction. The daughter of the promising young stallion Constitution has done all of her local work for O’Neill out of sight at San Luis Rey Downs, and today shows up for an $80,000 tag, not exactly a sign of confidence. We’ll use her on a few tickets but the bulk of our action will go to Convoluted on top.
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RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Stylishly; 6-Celilar Door
Forecast: Cellar Door breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat – the fastest in the sale – when she previewed in the 2017 OBS April sale and looked terrific doing it, after which she was purchased through the ring for $525,000. The daughter of Awesome Again was close to a race last summer before being stopped on, and this time around she’s put together a steady series of drills that should have her fit enough. As mentioned in our first race commentary regarding Satanta, Mullins has a weak record with first-timers but this filly has more than enough zip to be very dangerous in this five furlong dash for older maiden fillies and mares. Also, it’s a good sign that Smith takes the call. Stylishly is a New York invader by way of Kentucky seeking some of that lucrative “ship and win” money for new trainer Callaghan and based on her last two outings – in the money efforts that earned solid speed figures – the daughter of Speightstown should be highly competitive on this circuit. Both should be used in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Cellar Door.
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RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Top of the Game; 7-Kitten’s Royal; 8-Hey Sequoia
Forecast: Kitten’s Royal was claimed for $16,000 by Glatt at Golden Gate Fields in early May and makes his first start since for half that amount in this main track miler. Obviously he’s seen better days, but if he has at least one good one left he’ll beat this field (that might be a big if, though). Hey Sequoia is another class dropper seeking easier pickings; the Marquez-trained colt won a restricted $16,000 affair two runs back in late May and exits a much tougher starter’s allowance race late last month at Los Alamitos, where he finished an okay fourth. He’ll be running on late. Top of the Game was claimed for $62,500 last year, hasn’t won since the fall of ’17 and plummets to the bottom after winding up a fair fourth in a $16,000 seller just eight days ago. In a race loaded with questions, nothing would surprise, so maybe the best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to in rolling exotic play or simply sit the race out.
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RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Shehastheritestuff; 3-Lucky Ms Jones; 8-Opus Won
Forecast: Opus Won has steadily improving numbers and though beaten at 6/5 in a similar event at Santa Anita last month ran well enough to expect a good effort once again in this state-bred optional claimer. The Baltas-trained filly continues to train in steady fashion at San Luis Rey Downs, retains Prat, and will be tough if she can avoid a wide trip from her outside draw. Lucky Ms. Jones graduated nicely at this distance on grass at Santa Anita last month in what was just her second career start, so there’s plenty of room for further improvement from the D’Amato-trained daughter of Lucky Pulpit. She should be able to settle in mid-pack, save ground, and then launch her best bid from the quarter pole home. Shehastheritestuff, a two-time winner over the Del Mar grass course, makes her first start since finishing a fair fifth and being claimed by O’Neill for $35,000 last month. She’s already won this condition, so in order to be eligible she must run for the $20,000 tag. In this case, where a $64,000 purse is being offered, the class drop isn’t suspicious. Bejarano stays aboard and should have her within striking range throughout.
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RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Unbroken Star; 7-Ohtani
Forecast: First-time starter Unbroken Star brought $100,000 as a yearling, finally makes it to the races in the summer of his 4-year-old season, and clearly has had problems. However, there’s no doubt he can run, as he’s shown a number of times in the morning, and we’re expecting this Ellis-trained gelding to simply out class his modest opposition first crack out of the box. It’s been a good meeting so far for this stable, and this son of Broken Vow should help pad the stats. Among the known element, the Spawr-trained Ohtani seems the best of a modest group. He’s a fit on numbers and should appreciate the return to dirt after an even performance vs. similar on grass last month. We’ll use him as a back-up or a saver but mostly focus on Unbroken Star both in the rolling exotics and in the straight pool.
