Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Today’s Day Makers: View video
*
*
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Warren’s Showtime
Forecast: Warren’s Showtime is bred to run long and gave every indication that two-turning will be her thing in her recent sprint debut vs. maiden juvenile state-bred fillies. The daughter of Clubhouse Ride was within range throughout while racing along the deeper rail, kept to her task in the drive while still traveling along the slower inside lanes and finished with interest to be third before galloping out very well into the clubhouse house. With that effort behind her, the C. Lewis-trained filly should be set to stretch out on grass and graduate today with good bug boy Velez riding her back. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Beyond Pleasure; 3-Fracas
Forecast: Beyond Pleasure seeks her third straight score and while she’s not particularly fast on speed figures she does have the powerful team of F. Prat and R. Baltas in her corner, and that may be good enough to carry her through. Fracas stretches out for the first time and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. On pedigree she should stay a mile and speed figures are moving in the proper direction, so if not policed up front the daughter of Violence could take this field a very long way.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Wakes Up Happy; 7-Nu Pi Lambda; 8-Mind Out
Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs on grass in a competitive affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Wakes Up Happy has been fairly impressive in the a.m. for the D. O’Neill barn and looks cranked up and ready for a huge run in her debut. The daughter of Quality Road probably isn’t the quickest filly in the field but she can turn it on late. Nu Pi Lambda, as a daughter of City Zip, has the pedigree to be a very good turf sprinter and has shown flashes of good quickness in the morning for C. Gaines. This stable rarely wins with first timer starters but this recent $80,000 2-year-old in training purchase might be quick enough to bust out and go. Mind Out brought $850,000 as a yearling last year at Saratoga and trained well for S. Callaghan, although showing signs of greenness in some of his drills. The ability seems there but she may not be ready to show her best right off the best. We’ll use her on a ticket or two, nonetheless.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Gate Speed; 6-Go for a Ride; 7-Commanding Chief
Forecast: Commanding Chief seems to be improving with racing and may be ready to graduate in this maiden special weight main track miler. The J. Sadler-trained colt likes to settle and make a run and there should be enough pace in here to compliment his style. If the son of Will Take Charge is going to develop into a useful sort, he’ll show it today. Gate Speed, third in the same race that Commanding Speed just finished second in, also has room to improve with experience and should be on or near the lead throughout, just as he was last time. His speed figures have improved with each start, and with another forward move today the M. Glatt-trained gelding will be dangerous. Go for a Ride is a Canadian invader and first-time gelding now in the P. Miller barn and picks up Prat. His turf and all-weather form are okay but this will be his first start on dirt. His local works have been okay, nothing great, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two in our rolling exotics while pressing with Commanding Chief on top.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Very Very Stella; 4-Murad Khan; 5-Unusually Green
Forecast: Very Very Stella stretches out again and switches to grass, his preferred surface, so we’re expecting a huge run from the veteran gelding in the D. O’Neill barn. The son of High Cotton should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance while remaining above his claim level in a sign of confidence. M. Garcia knows him well and stays aboard. Unusually Green hits hard at this level and has been first or second in six of nine career starts over the Del Mar lawn. Runner-up in his last pair, the 8-year-old gelding seems set for another honest effort for the always-effective A. Cedillo/J. Wong team. Murad Khan, a Churchill Downs invader seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money, lands F. Prat for his local debut and certainly fits very strongly at this level with anything close to his best race. The L. Powell-trained son of Raven’s Pass has good tactical speed and should have no excuses while dropping to his lowest level ever.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Isotherm
Forecast: Isotherm is winless in seven career starts on dirt, though he did finish second in this same race last year and was also a strong third in the Awesome Again S.-G1 last year behind Accelerate and West Coast. Freshened and training better than ever, the P. D’Amato-trained horse is reunited with “win rider” Prat and catches a field that should produce enough early pace to compliment his closing style. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Prodigal Son; 4-Hartel; 10-No Bang No Boom
Forecast: No Bang No Boom is fresh off the plane from New York and is here seeking somew of that valuable ship-and-win bonus money. He can outrun this field with a repeat of his most recent win in early June at Belmont Park. Prodigal Son can be dangerous from off the pace if the leaders go too fast early, while Hartel has excellent gate speed but has shown the ability to settle just off the leaders and produce a winning bid. His Midwest numbers make him competitive on this circuit and the P. Miller/F. Prat combo always has to be respected.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Impossible Task
Forecast: Impossible Task ran below expectations when finishing fourth as the favorite in his debut sprinting on grass vs. maiden special weight competition but he had trained well on dirt prior to that start and today shows up on the main track in a high priced claimer while adding blinkers and retaining A. Cedillo. The son of Liam’s Map should be very tough to beat at this level if he can translate his morning abilities to the afternoon. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
