Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Del Mar

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.  

Grade B=Solid Play.  

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.  

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View video

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Juggles; 3-Of Good Report; 4-Red Clem

Forecast: On pure form Of Good Report looks just okay, but today he shows up in a claimer for the first time, gets blinkers, and switches to F. Prat, so there are several reasons to believe improvement is likely.  The D. O’Neill-trained gelding exits a pair of considerably tougher races and may have found his friends in this $32,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds.  O’Neill has another major player in the race with Juggles.  The son of Square Eddieflunked his only prior route test, so we’re not sure if he really wants to run this far, but that effort came in a much tougher spot and today he lands the good rail in a race without much early speed.  His sharp runner-up effort in a turf sprint earlier this month was flattered when Boa Nova came back to win.  Red Clem likes to lay back and make a run and has numbers that put him in the hunt.  The concern is the projected pace, or lack thereof, that doesn’t figure to compliment his late-running style.  We’ll use him as a saver on a ticket or two.

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Road Test; 6-Tiz Toffee

Forecast: Tiz Toffee returns from Northern California to a track she’s had excellent success over and the J. Wong-trained filly remains protected in this starter’s allowance race in a sign of confidence.  This will be her first route test, but on pedigree a mile should be well within her range and she could become the controlling speed if front-running strategy is employed.  A nice five furlong workout in 1:01 seconds (fifth fastest of 34) indicates she’s doing well, so let’s put her on top while also including Road Test in our rolling exotics. First off the claim for good trainer D. Pederson, she is another who prefers the Del Mar dirt surface and was most recently second with a good number while almost 12 lengths clear of the rest in a $12,500 seller last month.   

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​​RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Big Buzz; 6-Unapologetic

Forecast: Big Buzz and Unapologetic meet again after squaring off in a similar mini-marathon first-level optional claimer over this course and distance earlier this month.  Unapologetic was sharp in victory while taking full advantage of a perfect trip/ride and should fire a similar shot today.  Big Buzz, on the other hand, had traffic trouble at a critical stage entering the lane and lost his momentum, eventually winding up third, beaten less than two lengths.  Today he picks up F. Prat, and the switch in jockey could make the winning difference.  However, the gelding is winless in six starts over the Del Mar lawn and has found trouble on more than one occasion.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Unapologetic on top.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Smiling to Excess

Forecast: Smiling to Excess makes the all-important drop from maiden special weight to maiden $50,000 claiming and should find this group well within her capabilities.  She’s had a problem leaving the gate cleanly in both of her starts but if she she leaves with her field today the daughter of Smiling Tiger should have ample early speed to gain a favorable pace-pressing position.  The first timers doesn’t inspire so let’s put the P. Aguirre-trained juvenile on top and use her as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

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​​RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Jaccat; 4-Point Hope

Forecast: This starter’s allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares appears to have two main players.  Point Hope finished well but too late when second in a $40,000 claimer over this course and distance earlier this month while earning a career-top speed figure and today is protected by R. Ellis, an indication that she’s holding her form.  The Irish-bred filly will need some help up front to have her best chance, but with good racing luck she might be able to tag the speed.  Jaccat graduated in a high-priced maiden claimer sprinting on grass at Santa Anita in June and then was tried twice on the dirt with fair results.  This return to turf course could get her back on the winning track and her rail draw should insure a ground-saving trip for the good combo of F. Prat and L. Powell.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Point Hope.

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​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Express Train

Forecast: ​Express Train was given an educational run when second to the highly-regarded Eight Rings in his debut earlier this month and although he was beaten six lengths in that fast, highly-rated sprint the son of Union Rags wound up more than nine lengths clear of the rest while being allowed to finish on his own courage.  Bred to run long and getting his chance in his second career start, the J. Shirreffs-trained colt – a $500,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland last year – seems sure to move forward with that bit of experience and today’s longer trip.  M. Smith got to know him in that race and stays aboard.  We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single at what should be fairly low odds. 

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RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Bulletproof One; 8-Been Studying Her

Forecast: Bulletproof One is unbeaten in three starts and remains in state-bred company once again after demolishing her outclassed foes in the CTBA Stakes here last month.  The daughter of Idiot Proof has won her three starts by a total of 23 ½ lengths and today - not that she needed it – she gets an added bonus with the switch to F. Prat.  The P. Miller-trained filly will be an enormous favorite, and deservedly so.  That said, there’s a chance for upset if she doesn’t bring her “A” game.  Despite a less than ideal trip, Been Studying Her was visually very impressive winning at first asking in a stronger-than-par maiden special weight sprint at Sacramento in July and strikes us as being considerably better than her moderate Beyer speed figure gives her credit for.  The daughter of Fast Anna didn’t break well but then flashed good zip to move within range inside, waited for room, then angled out and collared the heavy favorite in deep stretch while showing a touch of class.  She’s likely to go higher than her morning line of 5-1, so let’s take a shot and play her in the straight pool while doubling the race in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 9-Darga; 12-Tandalicious

Forecast: Darga isn’t much but won’t have to be to graduate in this woefully weak maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares.  A bullet workout in 47 2/5 seconds at Los Alamitos just five days ago indicates the daughter of Super Saver is doing well for J. Sadler, and if she can duplicate her decent third place finish in her debut three races back she’ll be home free.  A rough start in her most recent outing at Los Al when beaten at 6/5 might certainly cost her.  Tandalicious drops to the bottom and should greatly appreciate this softer assignment.  Drawn comfortably outside, the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Lemon Drop Kid projects to be prominent throughout and stick around a whole lot longer than she has been against this bunch.  Preference on top goes to Darga but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 28, 2019

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