Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Bird; 5-Zorich; 6-Royal Insider
Forecast: The opener is a raffle for $25,000 claiming 3-year-olds and requires a spread. We’ll go three-deep but without any real conviction. Bird arrives from Keeneland seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money and is a first-off-the-claim for R. Hess (good stats with this angle) while landing F. Plat. There’s no evidence that conventional dirt is his best surface based strictly on form, but a bullet five-furlong workout over the local main track (1:00 2/5) last week certainly is encouraging. Royal Insider has rising speed figures and is fresh from a game score vs. older restricted $35,000 sellers last month at Santa Anita. He’s realistically spotted in this lower-priced affair vs. his own age group and with another forward move could win again. He loses Prat but picks up A. Cedillo. Zorich was all out to beat a maiden claiming field at 70 cents on the dollar last time out but earned a competitive speed figure with this group so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Challah; 5-The Longest Night
Forecast: Challah, a first-time gelding, shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. The R. Baltas-trained 3-year-old switches to F. Prat, stretches out for the first time, and tries the main track, all factors that should contribute to a significant forward move. The Longest Night also is exiting a series of much stronger straight maiden events and after burning money in his last pair seems likely to be a major player with this group. With his kind of early speed, the son of Paynter might try gate-to-wire tactics. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Challah.
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RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 9-Going to Vegas; 10-Keepinmypromise
Forecast: Going to Vegas, runner-up in all three of her starts, may finally break through with a win today If she can transfer her dirt form to grass. The daughter of Goldencents is moving up in class but has rising speed figures and should fit nicely in this expensive maiden claimer for juvenile fillies. Though beaten five lengths plus in her last start, she was more than seven lengths clear of the rest in a highly rated affair and projects to enjoy a good pace-stalking trip and have every chance when it matters. Keepinmypromise is stuck on the far outside but removes blinkers (love that angle), switches to F. Prat, and seems likely to be heard from in the final furlong. Her non-threatening, distant fourth place effort up north last time out was a bit better than it looks on paper and a healthy work tab since provides hope that she’s ready to step forward.
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RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Del Mar May; 6-Message
Forecast: Del Mar May was out of her element in the Eight Belles S.-G2 over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs in May and was stopped on. She returns for R. Baltas (very strong stats with layoff runners) and has back numbers that are more than good enough to win. The work tab doesn’t particularly inspire, but the daughter of Jimmy Creed was graded stakes-placed over this main track last year, so she’s the likely choice and one to beat. Message gets off the dreaded rail after being stuck there in her last three starts, all of which were below her best form. Today she’s drawn ideally outside – her only victory was accomplished when breaking from this draw – so we’re expecting the B. Baffert-trained filly to snap back with a major effort. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with the edge on top to Del Mar May.
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RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Seaside Dancer; 5-Querelle
Forecast: We’ll use two in the fifth race, an open affair for $40,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies but if find the need to go deeper, go right ahead. Seaside Dancer should be very well-meant – she’s eligible for the ship and win bonus – and this Eastern invader is back in the D. O’Neill barn after being claimed away last summer for $50,000. She was in excellent form at that time and after almost six weeks off should be ready to bounce back in a big way. Most effective on the lead but capable of stalking and pouncing if the race flow dictates, the daughter of Fed Biz likely will be prominent throughout under A. Cedillo, who has won on her twice before. Querellle is a fit on figures and seems certain to improve in this, her first race for a tag. The J. Cassidy-trained daughter of Violence may be the most dangerous of the closing types, so with some help up front she might be able to produce the last run.
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RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ancient Warrior; 7-Garth
Forecast: It was tempting to make Ancient Warrior a single in this hot maiden sprint for juveniles but because he drew the treacherous rail, we just can’t do it. The son of the incredibly successful freshman stallion Constitution has strung together five bullet workouts for J. Hollendorfer, including an easy half mile gate spin (fastest of 18) over the local main track. He gives every indication of being a top prospect – especially with F. Prat taking the call – so he’s strictly the one to beat, but probably at a short price. Garth removes blinkers after a disastrous effort in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 – he stopped badly and was beaten 30 lengths – but recent drills indicate he should be able to run back to his promising runner-up debut race when second to subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court over this track in August. You have to toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Rijeka; 3-Never Easy
Forecast: Rejeka shows up in a high-priced claimer for the first time and should be capable of capitalizing on the class relief. A prior winner over this course and distance, the R. Baltas-trained Irish-bred lands a comfortable inside post, switches to A. Cedillo, and with good racing luck may be able to tag the speed. Never Easy is progressing nicely for R. Mandella. The lightly raced son of Candy Ride has improved his Beyer speed figure in every one of his career outings, earning a topper last time out when breaking his maiden with a good pace-stalking trip. His good tactical speed ensures a clean trip, and with another forward move, he’ll be right there despite the class hike. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Roadster; 6-Two Thirty Five
Forecast: Two Thirty Five won the listed Brubaker Stakes over this main track two runs back and then just missed in a photo when edged by Midcourt in the subsequent Comma to the Top Stakes at Santa Anita last month. Both of those races were at a mile; today’s Native Diver S.-G3 is a nine-furlong affair and the extra furlong plays right into this R. Baltas-trained gelding’s strength. A. Cedillo stays aboard, knows him well, and should have the son of Stay Thirsty in a good stalking spot outside throughout. Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby-G1 at this mile and one-eighth trip in April, so he, too, should fire his best shot while stretching out from seven furlongs. Nosed out in the Damascus Stakes on Breeders’ Cup day in his first outing since June, the B. Baffert-trained colt had every chance in his comeback but simply couldn’t seal the deal, just missing to the older, seasoned Flagstaff. The son of Quality Road switches to D. Van Dyke and after failing as a short-priced favorite in his last pair should have every chance to right the ship today.
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RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Fivestar Lynch; 8-Peytons Path
Forecast: Trainer R. Baltas appears to have the nightcap surrounded with two major contenders. Fivestar Lynch makes his first start since being gelded and also is dropping into an expensive maiden claimer for the first time, so there should be no excuses for the Irish-bred 3-year-old, especially from a good inside draw and with F. Prat taking the call. The son of Slade Power exits a live race, and at this level really doesn’t have to improve much to win. Stable mate Peytons Path was nailed on the money after cutting out solid fractions in a similar maiden claimer at Santa Anita earlier this month. It was just his third career start – his best to date – so if he can get away with another easy front-running trip the son of Pioneerof the Nile may get very brave. Both should be included in rolling exotic splay; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Fivestar Lynch on top.
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