Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Sunday, November 17, 2019
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bellazano; 6-Coilette
Forecast: Coilette moves up a notch following a claim by a high percentage outfit and a repeat of her race before last for her new connections should be good enough to beat this field. Based on analysis of her interior fractions, the daughter of Coil appears quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. Her only win came in gate-to-wire fashion. Bellazano, in the money in her last three with competitive speed figures, should be within range throughout and really won’t have to improve much to win. Her lone score came at this extended sprint trip. We’ll prefer Coilette on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Lighthouse; 4-Nu Pi Lambda; 8-She’s So Special
Forecast: She’s So Special is better than her only prior outing in July shows and the daughter of Hard Spun gets a chance to show it while switching to what should be her preferred surface. Drawn comfortably outside and picking up F. Prat, she’s from the P. Miller barn, which has exceptional stats with second-time maidens and layoff runners. Nu Pi Lambda, a good runner-up in both of her starts, probably can’t beat a real good maiden but should be in the fray throughout and is a “must use.” Lighthouse loses Prat but picks up D. Van Dyke and has a right to improve off a fairly decent debut performance sprinting on grass at Santa Anita. She figures to be in the first flight throughout assuming she leaves cleanly from the rail.
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RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Eddie’s Sister; 3-Elgofranco; 4-Jodie Faster
Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has two bullets to fire and either one can win. Eddie’s Sister has been working out of sight of the private clockers at San Luis Rey Downs, so we really don’t have much to go on other than the presence of F. Prat in the saddle. He’s this barn’s go-to guy so let’s put her on top in what appears to be a below standard race for state-bred juvenile fillies. Stable mate Jodie Faster displayed some ability in her debut when second beaten a neck in a low-rated affair and then was no factor when tried over a distance of ground on turf next time out. Back sprinting on the main track, she must be given a look based on her first try and G. Franco, who knows her well, stays aboard. Elgofranco finished an okay second in a moderate race in her debut, adds Lasix today, switches from grass to dirt, and has a right to produce a forward move. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Eddie’s Sister.
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RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Murad Khan; 6-Foray
Forecast: Foray returns to a flat mile after getting nailed right on the money in a highly rated nine-furlong affair at this level last month at Santa Anita. A prior winner of the local lawn, the J. Sadler-trained gelding projects to enjoy his coveted front-running trip and will be tough with anything close to his best effort. Murad Khan, now in the P. Miller barn following a $40,000 claim, seeks his third straight score while being wheeled back in just a week. If the short rest doesn’t affect his current form, the French-bred gelding will be dangerous once again from off the pace. Fray gets top billing, but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Time for Suzzie; 5-Busy Paynter; 7-Portal Creek
Forecast: Portal Creek is winless in five starts at Del Mar, but the daughter of Shanghai Bobby is currently in sharp form and is drawn perfectly outside, so we’ll give a chance to break on through. She’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and given that type of ride from J. Valdivia she should be able to produce an effective rally-wide move. Time for Suzzie had the misfortune of drawing the disadvantageous rail but she knows how to win races and has scored over this main track in the past. Busy Paynter beat a softer restricted (nw-2) $12,500 field last month at Santa Anita and earned a competitive speed figure, so with only slight improvement the B. Koriner-trained filly has a chance to score right back. At 8-1 on the morning line you have to use her somewhere.
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RACE 6: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Teachers Big Dream; 6-Madam Bourbon; 7-Peaches and Nuts
Forecast: Peaches and Nuts offers an interesting gamble in this starter’s optional claimer over a mile on grass for 2-year-old fillies. A clever winner sprinting from off the pace in her debut, the daughter of Take Charge Indy was pinched back at the start, lost early position, and was never a factor in a similar starter’s allowance affair at Keeneland in most recent outing. She’s bred to run long, gets her chance, and picks up skilled grass rider D. Van Dyke, who will give her the patient ride that she needs, so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. Madam Bourbon was stakes placed on grass in late September at this trip in her most recent outing at Gulfstream Park after capturing a maiden $50,000 turf affair 13 days earlier. She arrives fit and ready for new trainer M. Glatt, picks up F. Prat, and is the logical favorite and one to beat. Teachers Big Dream broke her maiden in stylish fashion at first asking two-turning on dirt at Santa Anita and her pedigree (Mr. Big) suggests she should be even better on grass. At 6-1 on the morning line she definitely worth including in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Mo See Cal
Forecast: Mo See Cal bit off more than she could chew when a well-beaten sixth in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff, but this group is well within her range and the daughter of Uncle Mo should be able to regain her winning form over a track she’s shown a distinct liking for. A. Cedillo, who was aboard the P. Miller-trained filly in an easy allowance win two runs back, returns and seems likely to have her in an ideal pace-stalking position. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Our Romance; 7-Scarlet Heat; 9-Tizzy
Forecast: The finale is a state-bred maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. Our Romance, in the money in her last pair against similar competition, looks slightly best in an open fray. She’s never been one to find extra under pressure in the lane but might get brave in this below average affair. Her morning line of 7/2 seems about right. Scarlet Heat, away since February, returns with F. Prat in the saddle and could easily be a better type this time around for D. Blacker. She sprinted in both of her two previous races but shouldn’t have an issue with this trip based on pedigree. Tizzy seems to lack a winning punch but has hit the board in each of her last five starts and figures to at least clunk up for another minor award. You can include her on a ticket or two for protection.
