November 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Count of Amazonia; 3-Midnight Team Time; 6-Red King
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a mini marathon for second level allowance horses in a race that appears to have a fair amount of speed signed on. Count of Amazonia and Red King both exit the much tougher John Henry Turf Cyp-G2 and should appreciate this easier task and the added distance, so they’ll be the ones we’ll concentrate on. ‘Amazonia ran into a roadblock in the upper stretch and lost whatever chance he may have had, eventually winding up 10th of 12. Though a miler most of his career, he should be well-suited by today’s 11-furlong journey, and with the switch to J. Bravo we’re expecting the Irish-bred colt to return to top form. ‘King is winless in six starts this year but has been in some tough spots, so today’s class relief could help him turn things around. Eastern shipper Midnight Tea Time always has liked to finish second or third (19 times) than win (four times) but his numbers are strong, and he’s run well at this distance in the pass. Toss him in somewhere, at least as a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Spoiled Rotten; 4-Bonita Leona; 7-Quick Take
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the second race, a modest state-bred maiden $50,000 claimer for juvenile fillies. Quick Take exits a productive race in which she displayed good zip to make the pace before weakening late. She has a right to be fitter today and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. The shortening in trip to five and one-half furlongs won’t hurt, either. Bonita Leona and Spoiled Rotten, two-three finisher last month at this level at Santa Anita, should be part of the pace as well and neither would have to improve much to be in the thick of it again. We’ll give ‘Take the edge on top in a race that we’ll probably not get too involved with.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-The Critical Way
Forecast: The Critical Way didn’t draw into the field yesterday for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1, but things have a way of working out, and we’re expecting the Eastern shipper to pay for his trip and then some in this third level allowance sprint over five furlongs on grass. He’s crossed the wire first in his last three starts, including the valuable Parx Dash-G3 last time out, so we’ll give him top billing as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Agusta Melody; 6-Big Scott Daddy
Forecast: Four of the six entrants in this starter’s allowance extended sprint exit the same race on October 10 at Santa Anita. They’re hard to separate in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Doncic may be the controlling speed today, but he finished a fading seventh (beaten eight lengths) in that common race, so he’s a tough one trust. Let’s settle on Big Scott Daddy as our top pick primarily due to his cozy outside post, which will allow F. Prat to dictate his own trip. The gelded son of Scat Daddy lacks tactical speed but in a small field he shouldn’t have any traffic troubles, and on his best day he may be capable of producing the last run. August Melody was the beaten choice in that same when fading to fifth, but he has prior from that makes him a major player so if the T. Yakteen-trained gelding runs back to his sharp runner-up effort two races back over the Del Mar main track he could easily make amends. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics in a race that probably should be handled with care.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Prince Ziggy; 7-Eagle Chief; 10-Circumvent
Forecast: Eagle Chief is a 10-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but the son of Into Mischief may finally have found a field he can beat in this middle-distance maiden claimer on grass. Runner-up in a similar affair last time out, the J. Sadler-trained gelding will be running on late and with some help up from could produce a winning late kick. Circumvent, third in the same race ‘Chief exits, is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but if he can get over and secure a pace-prompting trip without being used hard he should stick around for a long time. Prince Ziggy has had just three starts and may have more upside than the other two main contender. In the frame in his last two outings with rising speed figures, the sophomore son of Cairo Prince shows a healthy, steady series of workouts for E. Kruljac since raced to indicate another forward move is likely. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lunatic; 2-Philly Lishes; 10-Dorita’s Happy
Forecast: This looks like a decent spot for Dorita’s Happy, as the class-dropping sophomore filly appears to have found her friends in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 sprint for fillies and mares. With a good stalking style and speed figures that fit, the daughter of Runhappy should fold into a comfortable spot from her outside draw and then have every chance to take control when given her cue. Philly Lishes, runner-up vs. similar when favored at 7/5 at Los Alamitos off a long layoff in late September, was more than three lengths clear of the rest in a race she possibly needed. With a forward move today, she’ll be in the thick of it again. Lunatic, claimed for this price last time out when nosed out at 4/5, figures in the fray again but must overcome the inside post. He’s going from the P. Miller stable to the G. Papaprodromou barn, and the analytics will say that’s a negative trainer change.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Roses’s Crystal; 3-Fearless Girl
Forecast: Fearless Girl had excuses when finishing a close fifth at 4/5 in a similar entry-level allowance event over nine furlongs on grass at Santa Anita and with a cleaner trip today at this shorter one-mile trip the P. D’Amato should have every chance to make amends. Her strong runner-up performance two races back over this course and distance should be good enough, and she is reunited with U. Rispoli, who was aboard in that race. Rose’s Crystal, a relatively close sixth in the same race our top pick exits, is another that should appreciate this turn back in distance. She lacks tactical speed, but if the early fractions are honest, she should be heard from late. We’ll yse these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Fearless Girl.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Bella Vita; 6-Warren’s Showtime.
Forecast: Let’s give Bella Vita a chance to make amends in this extended main track state-bred sprint after a dull run at even money when facing a similar field in a Hillside Turf Course added money event at Santa Anita last time out. A repeat of her fast, highly-rated open allowance win over this Del Mar main track two runs back would be more than good enough today, and with “win” rider F. Prat back aboard, the daughter of Bayern seems likely to bounce back in a big way. Warren’s Showtime is probably better on turf than dirt, but she can handle the main track well enough to be dangerous against similar California-bred company sprinting or routing. Second in last year’s edition of the Betty Grable S., she figures to settle early and launch her rally when asked at the quarter pole and make her presence felt late.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Maynard; 7-Wellswort; 10-Picota
Forecast: Picota had no visible mishap when finishing second in a similar maiden grass miler for 2-year-olds at Santa Anita three weeks ago, but his previous outing was good, so perhaps the P. D’Amato-trained import deserves another chance. He’s been in the money in all five starts so we can expect him to have dead aim from the quarter pole home. The “other” D’Amato in the field is Wellswort, fourth in the same race without being knocked about. We suspect he’ll step forward today with that tightener under his belt. Maynard has been training at San Luis Rey Downs so we have nothing to go on other than pedigree (by Animal Kingdom, so he should like a mile and grass), his workout times (several decent long works), and his trainer’s ability to win with a first timer (excellent from a small sample). He’s nicely drawn in an open affair, so we’ll include him on our ticket.
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