Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Five Takeaways from the Week Concluding November 14, 2021

by Jeff Siegel, analyst and handicapper

1 – Regular readers of this space probably are aware of our previously stated expectations that Messier – and not undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 and slam dunk 2021 Eclipse Award winner Corniche – will eventually prove to be trainer Bob Baffert’s leading member of the stable’s Spring Classics contingent in 2022, an opinion expressed after the son of Empire Maker taunted a maiden field on Oct. 22 at Santa Anita when strolling home by more than six lengths in an eased-up victory that held value for at least twice the winning margin.

Thus, we eagerly anticipated what surely we expected to be another superior performance when he returned last weekend in the Bob Hope S.-G3 over seven furlongs at Del Mar in a four-runner affair that was designed to tick him over for next month’s Los Alamitos Futurity-G2, a middle distance event that Baffert has owned for seven consecutive years, his winners including such future stars as Improbable, McKinzie, Mastery, and Mor Spirit.

And Messier didn’t disappoint. Or did he? The 6/5 favorite settled off the pace and then rallied wide to gobble up the leaders to win going away by more than three lengths. Nothing wrong with that.

But given our high expectations, the performance was something of a letdown. Yeah, we know, tough crowd, but still.

It must be stated that we can’t verify the race’s official final time of 1:22.74. Due to Del Mar’s thoroughly erratic and untrustworthy timing system and the inability to accurately hand time a seven furlong race because a building that blocks the view of the start requires the video replay to begin with a head-on shot, there’s no way of knowing for sure whether the absurdly fast early fractions (:21.40, :43.23) are accurate. But we can manually clock the final quarter of a mile, and despite a picture perfect, in-the-clear trip behind three dueling leaders, Messier’s big late kick was an optical illusion, according to the watch. We caught him coming home in a mediocre :26 2/5 seconds, with a winning margin that was “only” three and one-half lengths.

A truly exceptional colt, given the pristine trip, would have annihilated his foes, not just outstayed them.

The Beyer speed figure came up 86, just two points better than what was assigned for his maiden win. The number is okay, not great, but okay. There’s still hope for better, because based on pedigree, he shouldn’t be expected to show his best stuff until he stretches out around two turns, and that opportunity presents itself at Los Alamitos Dec. 11.

We’ll be watching.

2 – Baffert also had the goods in the Bob Hope’s filly equivalent, the Desi Arnaz S.-G3, at Del Mar on Saturday, with odds-on Eda performing up to standard when winning by herself in a career top performance (83 Beyer fig) that seems likely to lead to success in bigger and better things, specifically the Starlet S.-G1 December 4. That race will be her first around two-turns, but there are expectations that the daughter of Munnings will stay, as she was produced by the Lemon Drop Kid mare Show Me, a debut winner over a distance of ground on grass during her 3-year-old season at Gulfstream Park. Additionally, from a visual standpoint, Eda gives every impression that her easy pace-stalking stalking style will translate well on the stretch-out.

She’s no Echo Zulu but nothing else in the division is either, and there will be plenty of good races for her to choose during the winter and perhaps the spring, as well.

3 – Trainer John Sadler knows what do with a good filly and he may have one with a 2-year-old daughter of Maclean’s Music named Unbridled Mary, a five-furlong debut winner on turf at Del Mar last Friday. The margin was just a nose and the assigned Beyer figure of 59 wouldn’t win some maiden claiming races on this circuit, but you can forget thr number, this might be a decent prospect. Originally a $39,000 Keeneland yearling purchase when appearing deep in the catalogue, she was pinhooked for $155,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Santa Anita two-year-old in training sale in June and had done everything asked in the a.m. leading up to her first start. After a bit of a slow break, she settled nicely in the second flight, accelerated when set down, and despite being two lengths off the lead at the furlong pole displayed a superior turn of foot after angling to the rail to be up in time in race in which the final eighth of a mile was clocked in :11.55. She had to come home in somewhere around :11 1/5.

Out of an unraced Tale of the Cat half-sister to Personal Ensign S.-G1 winner Persistently and with champion mare Heavenly Prize as her third dam, Unbridled Mary has a right to be more than just a sprinter, though we suspect Sadler will keep her around one corner for now. Her dirt works were good but not flashy (hence her overlay 4-1 closing odds), so we’re not going to pigeon-hole her as a grass-only type just yet. We suggest you put her in your stable mail and keep close tabs.

4 – Sadler’s undefeated Malibu S.-G1-bound 3-year-old Tapit colt Flightline always puts on a show in the morning and turned in another “wow” performance on Sunday at Santa Anita when working a bullet half mile in :46 3/5 seconds. The association clockers assigned the drill an “h” (handily, or maybe they really meant hammerlock) because the boys upstairs never utilize “b” for breezing, but if you haven’t checked out the workout on our website at, do yourself a favor and click on the following link: Flightline Workout Video

A winner of both of his career starts by a combined 26 lengths, Flightline was assigned an Equibase speed figure of 130 for his allowance win at Del Mar Sept 5. The Equibase number given to Aloha West when he won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 over that same track and distance two weeks ago was 110. Make of that whatever you will.

5 – Trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form that Following Sea, third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 in a much-better-than-looked performance that was discussed in this column last week, will either run next in the Cigar Mile-G1 Dec. 4 at Aqueduct or return to the West Coast for the Malibu S.-G1 at Santa Anita Dec. 26.

If he stays in New York, Following Sea will face older horses, but he’s already proven he can do that, having won the Vosburgh S.-G1 while defeating among others Firenze Fire.

“We’ll assess the fields and see how he’s doing,” said Pletcher in the article.

Here’s our assessment. Flightline runs in the Malibu. Stay home.

Five Takeaways from the Week Concluding November 7, 2021
By Jeff Siegel, analyst and handicapper

1 – Knicks Go was a very nice horse right from the beginning for trainer Ben Colebrook. He won the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland, after which he finished a commendable second to Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But things suddenly went south for the Maryland-bred colt, and after failing to hit the board in seven of his next nine starts, he was transferred in the winter of 2020 to the barn of trainer Brad Cox, for whom he has now started 10 times and has won eight races, including the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 and, on Saturday, the Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1.

In his thrashing gate-to-wire victory at Del Mar that produced a 112 Beyer speed figure (one point shy of the career-top number he was assigned in his 10-length romp in the Corn Husker S. at Prairie Meadows in July), the 5-year-old horse wrapped up an Eclipse Award in the older division along with Horse of the Year honors that normally (and in most cases deservedly) comes with it. There could be one last dance for the son of Paynter before he goes off to stud at Taylor Made in Kentucky, in the Pegasus World Cup-G1 January 29, a race that he dominated in typical gate-to-wire fashion earlier this year.

Our initial reaction with regards to his people’s interest in the Pegasus World Cup was that it should be a case of been-there-done-that, and that there’s no way he could top the hype and good will earned in his Breeders’ Cup Classic win, so why would this final hurrah even be necessary? What’s to gain, other than the winner’s purse of nearly $1.8 million which gets sliced to considerably less after all of the help gets paid.

That said, for racing fans, it really would be neat if he runs, if for no other reason that Life Is Good reportedly has been targeted for the same race. You think there might be a contested early pace? About such a prospect, Life Is Good’s trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form “they won’t be going in 23-and-one.”

2 – Yes, Knicks Go was superb in victory, but Life Is Good registered the higher number on our Goose Bump Scale. On twitter, we referred to his winning performance in the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 as “breathtaking,” but it was more than that, so much so that the son of Into Mischief really deserves some consideration for an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old division. Remember, winners in each championship category are determined by a vote that offers no clearly defined rules or guidelines. Media members who participate can select the horse with the best resume, or they can vote for whatever horse they believe to be the fastest or most talented using whatever metrics they desire.

Let’s not forget that last winter Life Is Good – at the time trained by Bob Baffert – twice defeated (easily) subsequent Kentucky Derby-G1 and Awesome Again-G1 winner Medina Spirit, himself a colt that has a rightful claim to the title after finishing in front of Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie when winding up second in the B.C. Classic.

Those who tally Grade-1 wins as the prime component for determining a champion won’t consider Life Is Good, as the BC Mile was his only such win (so far) of that quality. Voters who prefer to reward what they believe is the best colt of his crop – one that was forced to miss the prestigious Triple Crown races due to injury – will opt for Life Is Good and be thoroughly convinced that they are right.

3 – The inside lanes on Breeders’ Cup Friday were fine. On an overcast day, the dirt strip was fairly glib and the final times (including the ones that had to be manually corrected) were within the range of normal. Everybody had their fair shot.

However, the following day on Saturday, the rail was dead, certainly not quite as deep as it was when the Breeders’ Cup was staged at Del Mar in 2017, but dead, nonetheless. We can’t say for certain that the track bias altered any of the winning results, but we’re fairly convinced that at least a few horses that got mired down near the fence could easily have finished closer or achieved a better placing had they been able to maneuver to the faster part of the track.

Among them were:

Cupid’s Claws (Thoroughbred After Alliance S.-G2) – Loomed a strong threat inside entering the lane but then spun his wheels and lost his punch, eventually winding up third behind Lone Rock, who was wisely kept in the middle of the track throughout the mile and five-furlong marathon.

Edgeway (BC Filly & Mare Sprint) – Wound up second to powerful rally-wide winner Cee Cee while scraping the paint throughout. Had this race been run on Friday, such a trip would have made it a lot closer. Not on Saturday.

Following Sea (BC Sprint) – Buried on the rail from the 1-hole while taking dirt behind Jackie’s Warrior throughout and then was forced to steady and alter course after straightening for home before finishing with purpose when clear. Have to think he’ll show up for the 7F Malibu Stakes-G1 for 3-year-olds at Santa Anita Dec. 26. Dr. Schivel should be there, too, along with the incredibly gifted Flightline and maybe even American Pharoah’s undefeated half-brother Triple Tap.

Malathaat (BC Distaff) – Broke from post position three and was never able to extract herself from the deep rail. Was beaten a nose and half-length, and is another that probably would have won had this race been contested over Friday’s surface.

Hot Rod Charlie (BC Classic) – Wound up fourth, beaten more than fourth lengths, after racing along the fence throughout. Maybe the trip cost him a placing, but he was never going to worry Knicks Go.

4 – Echo Zulu and Corniche completed their respective juvenile campaigns undefeated and will be unanimous top vote-getters for Eclipse Awards in their categories (that’s assuming a first place vote or two doesn’t surface for Jack Christopher from a New York honk). Top class two year old colts and fillies don’t always train on, so what we see now may not be what we get next spring, but our impression is that Echo Zulu is a superb filly, and as a daughter of Gun Runner has every right to be just as good if not better as she matures and will continue to dominate her division as a 3-year-old.

Corniche? We’re not quite sure. All three of his wins were accomplished gate-to-wire, and after watching him train for months in California we’re not convinced he’ll be as effective in any other role other than as the controlling speed.

Actually, in terms of long range success, we like his Baffert-trained stablemate Messier better. The Canadian-bred son of Empire Maker has no hardware – just a maiden win – but after seeing him breeze six furlongs yesterday at Santa Anita just galloping on our watches in 1:12 3/5 while using about 10 percent of his energy, he’s the one we’ll hitch our wagon to.

5 – We don’t think Jackie’s Warrior cost himself an Eclipse Award despite flopping badly at 50 cents on the dollar and finishing sixth in the BC Sprint. Had Dr. Schivel been able to hang on, yes, that colt probably would have vaulted to the top of the division, but the rally-wide upset winner Aloha West isn’t going to be voted the title, and the older sprinters just don’t have the credentials. The victory by Jackie’s Warrior over Life Is Good in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga, to our eyes, was the definitive sprint race of the year.

However, his female equivalent, Gamine, is on treacherous footing. Yes, she did defeat Ce Ce on the square in the Ballerina S.-G1 at Saratoga but wound up a soundly beaten third by more than three lengths without apparent mishap in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, as Ce Ce swept on by outside in the better part of the track to draw clear with complete authority. The Michael McCarthy-trained daughter of Elusive Quality finishes the year with four wins in five sprint races (the same as Gamine) but the tie-breaker has to go to the winner on Championship Day. That’s Ce Ce.

6 – Here’s a bonus takeaway. When the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita in 2019, the following attendance figures were announced:
Friday, November 1, 2019 – 41,243
Saturday, November 2, 2019 – 67,811

Last weekend at Del Mar, here were the equivalent attendance numbers:
Friday, November 5, 2021 – 20,536
Saturday, November 6, 2021 – 26,553

You think that maybe the next time the Breeders’ Cup brass chooses Southern California to stage the event they might consider going back Santa Anita? Just askin’.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Five Takeaways from the Week Concluding November 14, 2021

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