Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Golden Gate Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 2, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Golden Gate Fields

Thursday, April 2, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade:  C

Use: 1-Enchanting Eva; 5-Pajama Queen

Forecast: Enchanting Eva, beaten as the favorite in four of five career starts and a no-excuse third in a slightly tougher maiden claimer two weeks ago, is certain to get plenty of play again in this modest maiden $5,000 five furlong sprint for older fillies and mares.  From a low percentage outfit and with speed figures that have stagnated, the daughter of Champ Pegasus represents an unattractive gamble at 5/2 on the morning line, though it must be stated that in a race without many alternatives she remains a contender by default.  Rolling exotic players may find the need to include her – and if you’re in that camp we won’t try to talk you out of it – but we’re inclined to side with the lightly-raced Pajama Queen, making her second start off a layoff after finishing fourth, just a half-length behind Enchanting Eva, when they faced each two weeks ago.  She’s another with low-percentage connections but because she’s unexposed with only three career starts the daughter of U. S. Ranger may have room for improvement that the others don’t.  And at 6-1 on the morning line she seems certain to be more attractive on the tote.  In a race we’ve rated a “C” (least preferred or pass) we’ll put her on top for those who desire the action.

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RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade:  C+

Use: 1-Wilshire Dude; <b>2-Eldritch; 5-Studly Perfection

Forecast: Eldritch is a one-paced grinder but he’s dropping to his lowest level ever and has speed figures that fit, so we’ll give him a very slight edge on top in a race that projects an uncertain race flow.  The M. Glatt-trained veteran has been victimized of late by slow early fractions but with the presence of front-running types King Eddie and Studly Perfection, the Irish-bred gelding may have a better chance in a race that could promote his style.  However, he’s 2-1 on the morning line so even if the fractions wind up being up normal-to-fast there really won’t be much value to be found.  Studly Perfection joins the J. Wong stable following a $12,500 claim last month and this barn is currently hitting at a remarkable 35% with this maneuver from a rather substantial sample.  There is every reason to believe this son of Majesticperfection will step forward as so many of the Wong claims do, and if clears the field without pressure there’s a strong likelihood that he’ll never look back.  However, King Eddie, who tends to employ the same front-running style, is drawn inside of ‘Perfection and if he can beat his pace rival to the lead before the clubhouse turn the race shape takes a different look.  Meanwhile, Wilshire Dude should be saving all ground from his rail post just behind the leaders in an ideal stalking position.  All three of his races over the local synthetic track have been solid, and the S. Miyadi-trained gelding will have every chance while settling in the garden spot. However, the son of First Dude tends to punch it in stronger when able to press easy fractions and there’s a better than average possibility that the early splits here will be a bit quicker than he prefers.  Rolling exotic players may find the need to spread deeper than the three we’ve listed above in a race in which a win by any one of the six entrants couldn’t be considered terribly surprising.

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​​​​​RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: B- 

Use: 4-Jenpirestrikesback; 7-Joyous; 8-Diamondsnchampagne

Forecast: Joyous seeks her third straight score for the high percentage Q. Howey barn and while she’s moving up from a starters allowance $4,000 sprint to this restricted $8,000 affair the daughter of Comic Strip has figures that fit and a good stalking style that should allow her every chance to wear down Diamondsnchampagne close home.  Quinn, who had this filly last summer, lost her and then her claimed back (despite her being a voided claim during that time), is hitting at close to 30 percent during the meeting and this raise in class must be viewed as a sign of confidence.  Diamondsnchampagne is easily the quickest mare in the field and will take them as far as she can.  All seven of her wins have been accomplished over the local synthetic surface and at this abbreviated sprint trip she’s a lifetime 6-for-10.  In her younger days, the daughter of Vronsky could win as a stalker/pouncer if the situation dictated so from her outside draw that option will be available but given the projected pace flow of this race she’s almost certain to play catch me if you can. And the others may not be able to.  Jenspirestrikesback plummets from starter allowance $50,000 all the way down to the $8,000 level but based on pure speed figures this is about where she belongs and the lightly-raced daughter of Coil is a two-time winner over the local strip while displaying a good late kick.  If the leaders hit a wall late, she could easily be there to be pick up the pieces.

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RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade:  X 

Single: 6-Sassy and Hot

Forecast: Sassy and Hot was beaten a neck in a similar maiden $12,500 sprint for 3-year-old fillies less than two weeks ago and returns on short rest in a field should allow her to control proceedings on the front end.  More than three lengths clear of the rest when worn down late in just her second career start, the L. Powell-trained filly earned a better-than-par speed figure in that race, so if she doesn’t react negatively to the quick turnaround the daughter of Stormin Fever should be able to outlast this group, today’s extra half furlong notwithstanding.  At 2-1 on the morning line with the possibility of going lower she won’t be offering much wagering value so you can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.

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RACE 5: Post 2:45 ET. Grade: B 

Use: 3-Mithqaal; 5-Respect the Hustle

Forecast: Although Mithqaal failed to capitalize on a perfect stalking trip when winding up third in an optional $62,500 claimer over this track and distance earlier this month, the J. Wong-trained gelding earned a career top speed and really won’t have to improve much if at all to win today with the drop into a straight $50,000 claimer.  This will be his third start off a long layoff, so theoretically he should run at least as well if not better for this high-percentage (30%) outfit, and with the switch to the barn’s go-to rider J. J. Hernandez (a ridiculous 48% with a large sample with this jockey-trainer team), it’s easy to see why this veteran Speightstown gelding is listed at even money on the morning line.  Those trying to beat the favorite may take a small stab at Respect the Hustle.  The former stakes winner is winless in eight starts over the Tapeta surface but has hit the board on five occasions and finished with purpose when a good closing fourth in his sprint comeback last month. At 8-1 on the morning line the son of Colonel John may be worth using on a ticket or two as a saver.

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RACE 6: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B  

Use: 5-Crazy Sexy Munny; 6-Gratzie

Forecast: Crazy Sexy Munny, claimed for $6,250 three races back and a winner for $20,000 in her last pair for streaking trainer J. Navarre, looks well-spotted to score again for that same price in this middle distance affair for fillies and mares.  With a lifetime record of eight wins from 10 career starts  (with two seconds) over the local all-weather surface, the daughter of Munnings can dictate the race flow either as the controlling speed or from a stalking position, so at 2-1 on the morning line with the probability of going lower she once again is the logical top pick.  Old pro Gratzie, now nine years old but as genuine and consistent as ever, moves up a notch to the $20,000 level after finishing a close second in her last pair, both defeats coming in races with creepy-crawler early fractions that impacted her late kick.  Today’s pace scenario projects to produce another slowly run affair, so she may be up against it again, but the winner of 10 races during her career has numbers that fit, will be bearing down late, and is worth including somewhere in your rolling exotics.

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RACE 7: Post 3:45 ET. Grade: B  

Use: 3-Mulhima; 6-Posh Holly

Forecast: Posh Holly couldn’t handle win machine Crazy Sexy Munny when second for $20,000 in her first start since November last month but avoids that filly today by opting for this starter’s allowance affair that on paper appears to be a less contentious race that today’s sixth race, which her connections also could have considered.  The Irish-bred filly was making her first start on synthetic in that closing runner-up effort behind ‘Munny, is protected today in a sign of confidence, and retains K. Desormeaux.  With any kind of forward move at 5-1 on the morning line she can win this race at a decent price.  Mulhima apparently has found a home on this all-weather surface (she also won on synthetic in England as a 2-year-old), and after a brave score in a restricted $20,000 claimer over this strip in late February and with two nice workouts since the Irish-bred filly seems primed for another major effort.  She projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home.

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​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:15 ET. Grade: B-  

Use: 2-Railsplitter; 4-Lookin for Revenge; 5-Exhort; 6-Temple of Sol

Forecast: Exhort returns to the Bay Area after finishing fourth sprinting here in his debut and then winding up fifth (after cutting out the fractions) in a nine furlong straight maiden grass affair at Santa Anita three weeks ago while earning a vastly improved speed figure. The Doug O'Neill-trained colt adds blinkers and is a strong candidate to get loose on the lead and keep going. The 8/5 morning line favorite Looking for Revenge is faster based on speed figures, though we wonder if his no-excuse second place effort that produced the good number as the favorite in a four-runner field can be taken at face value. We’ve arbitrarily downgraded the race a bit. You should also toss in Temple of Sol, bred to run long, adding blinkers, switching to R. Gonzalez and with the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and you have a very competitive affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Golden Gate Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 2, 2020

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