Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, November 30, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies

Gulfstream Park

Saturday, November 30, 2019

 

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-La Flamenca; 2-Debbies Utube Diva; 9-Lemoncita

Forecast: Lemoncita passed a few tired horses in her debut without threatening but in doing so earned a speed figures that makes her highly competitive in this maiden $25,000 claiming turf miler for juvenile fillies.  It’s not really a good sign that T. Pletcher is giving up on the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid after just one outing but she’s a homebred from a stable that has little interest in carrying cheaper stock, so the class drop is understandable.  La Flamenca stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems likely to be prominent early.  Her one prior turf outing was poor, but it was against tougher.  Debbies Utube Diva flashed some improvement when closing with interest in a slow heat to be second last time out and if she can produce another forward move the daughter of Verrazano may be capable of at least hitting the board again.

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Kozy Kat

Forecast: Kozy Kat was nailed on the money when missing at even money in a similar maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies at Gulfstream Park West last month.  More importantly, she finished nearly 14 lengths in front of the others while earning a speed figure that is considerably stronger than par for this level.   We suspect she’ll go lower than her morning line of 7/2, but at anything close to that price she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

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​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Tonalist’s Shape; 6-Powers Move

Forecast: Tonalist’s Shape is unbeaten in two starts with rising speed figures and should be a short price to extend her streak in this overnight Stakes for juvenile fillies.  The stretch out to a mile shouldn’t be an issue – she’s from the first crop of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist – and given her deep closing style she really should be much more comfortable going long than short.  Power Move, a first-time Lasix user, broke her maiden at first asking with a good number at Belmont Park and then was a respectable runner-up (beaten five lengths by Maedean) in the Tempted Stakes at Aqueduct at a one-turn mile.  Lightly raced with plenty of upside, the daughter of More Than Read could give the favorite some competition and is worth including somewhere in your rolling exotics.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 6-He’s Super Lucky; 8-Blazing Desire

Forecast: In this completely unclassified maiden claiming turf affair for juveniles, anything goes.  We’ll use two in our rolling exotics, but you should probably use as many as your budget allows.  He’s Super Lucky missed by a neck over this course and distance in his second career outing in September and sports a healthy work pattern since to indicate further improvement is likely.  He should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance.  Blazing Desire surfaces in a seller for the first time while also being re-equipped with blinkers.  His previous grass form isn’t too bad, in fact, on pure numbers he’s the one to beat.

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​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Complexifier; 5-Went West

Forecast: Complexifier seeks his third straight score after breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs and then repeating on the raise in a solid allowance sprint at Keeneland.  This overnight Stakes race should be within his capabilities, though the impressive debut winner Went West may have something to say about that.  ‘West earned a big figure when graduating at first asking at Parx, beating two next out winners in the process, and the J. Servis-trained son of Union Rags should get nothing but better with experience and – later on – distance.  Complexifier has a bit more impressive resume at this stage so we’ll put him on top but Went West may have a higher upside and is a “must use” as well.

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​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-The Big Kahuna; 8-Well Connected

Forecast: ​The Big Kahuna, from the first crop of Bayern, has done some good work in the morning for T. Pletcher and looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking in this abbreviated maiden sprint for juveniles.  He’ll have to contend with Well Connected, a debuting Distorted Humor colt from the same connections that brought you Maximum Security.  The J. Servis-trained colt has been training slowly and easily leading up to his first outing, but that’s a typical pattern from this stable, which hits at 23% with first-time starters.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying The Big Kahuna on top.

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RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Fujairah; 6-American Giant

Forecast: American Giant just won a listed Stakes two-turning on grass at Gulfstream Park West with authority and that performance makes the daughter of More Than Ready the logical top choice in this mile grass added money affair for juvenile fillies.  She likes to settle off the pace and blast home, and that’s the way L. Saez most likely will ride her.  Fujairah was overmatched in the Jessamine Sttakes-G2 at Keeneland last time out but her race before last – a solid runner-up effort in a listed turf Stakes over this turf course - charts well in this spot.  From her good inside draw, the daughter of Ghostzapper should be prominent throughout, maybe even in front.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to American Giant.

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​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Spanish Point; 8-Sound Machine

Forecast: Spanish Point graduated for fun when risked for a $50,000 tag (she wasn’t claimed) at Belmont Park in late September and looks capable of taking on this tougher assignment despite drawing the disadvantageous rail.  The daughter of Creative Cause sports a bullet workout at Palm Meadows just seven days ago to indicate she’s doing well and likely to produce a forward move.  She’ll be tough if she breaks well and avoids early traffic trouble.  Sound Machine won her debut by a pole over this track in July but then disappointed badly when unplaced at 60 cents on the dollar in a first-level allowance sprint at Keeneland nine weeks later.  We’ll assume that she’s much better than that race shows and the daughter of Into Mischief will have every chance to prove it as the 8/5 morning line favorite.  Let’s go with Spanish Point on top – she’ll be the better price – but include both in our rolling exotics.

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RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-King Guillermo; 8-Graceful Kitten; 10-Captain D

Forecast: King Guillermo was given a race sprinting on dirt in his debut and then got serious when stretched out on grass in his most recent outing, winning by more than six lengths with complete authority while earning a powerful speed figure.  Anything close to that effort today will make him tough to beat.  The son of Uncle Mo is listed at 3-1 on the morning line, but we don’t expect to get it.  Graceful Kitten is the likely pacesetter and already two-time stakes winner, though his bubble was burst when he faded readily in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in his most recent outing.  Obviously, this is a much easier spot and if he can shake loose early without pressure he could get very brave.  Captain D likes to settle and make a run and with some help up front could be heard from late.  His numbers are just okay, but he’s genuine and consistent and must be respected.

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RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Fort McHenry; 10-Poe

Forecast: Fort McHenry broke his maiden by a distance two-turning at Gulfstream Park West with a powerful speed figure – by far a career top – and today the T. Pletcher-trained colt will try to repeat on the raise in this one-turn miler.  The son of Tapit, a $1.1 million yearling purchase, has the makings of a very nice prospect and at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower California Chrome’s half-brother looks very much like the one to beat.  Poe deserves some consideration in rolling exotic play, at least as a backup.  Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Brethren has competitive speed figures but certainly not the upside that Fort McHenry has.  Give his projected trip, the S. Gold-trained colt should have every chance to at least make a race of it.

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​​RACE 11: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Unlimited Data; 4-Bad to the Core; 5-Third Army

Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming turf routers.  Spread as deeply as you can afford to.  Bad to the Coe may be as good as any; the French-bred gelding missed by nose in a similar affair at Gulfstream Park West three weeks ago and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be right there.  Unlimited Data, third beaten a head in the same race ‘Core exits, should be in the fray once again as well.  Third Army plummets in class and almost certainly will go much better at this level.  The Hess, Jr.-trained son of Declaration of War has good tactical speed and at 8-1 on the morning line should stick around for a long time against this moderate group.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, November 30, 2019

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